Doncaster Skybet Chase

Danny said:
Whilst I'd agree with Grassy's points about finding the winner I would still say it is a punter friendly race. I think you could normally rack up a decent shortlist of horses at decent prices and backing a few e/w with the various place terms on offer you stand more than a fair chance of making a profit without backing the winner and if you do get the winner then its a bonus.

And for all people would say it was a lottery there have been some fair old proper gambles landed with the likes of Papillion and Bobbyjo amongst others down the years that suggests that to some people its not as much of a guessing game as you'd think.
Click to expand...


For Joe Public, who are only looking for an interest bet, it remains a complete lottery of a race.

We will all of us have been there. On the days leading up to the big race, our friends and family - knowing our interest in the sport - will routinely ask us via Facebook/text/whatever, to give them a horse for the National. You try giving them half a dozen horses with a staking-plan attached, and see how far you get. They want one horse only, and if it doesn't win, you're basically a muppet/loser as far as they're concerned.

I agree that judicious selection of multiple horses can generate profit on the race. Usually, you can narrow it down to a half-dozen or so with a real chance, and hope that you get the breaks. If you do, then landing the winner is certainly achievable. But it's not really 'picking the winner' in the classic sense - not in my book, at any rate. It's more like astute tank-management to me.
 
Last edited:
I'd agree Grasshopper, a friend of mine regularly backs umpteen horses in big handicaps, for example I reckon he backed between 8 and 10 horses in the Bet Victor Gold cup back in November!
 
tiggers1972 said:
I'd agree Grasshopper, a friend of mine regularly backs umpteen horses in big handicaps, for example I reckon he backed between 8 and 10 horses in the Bet Victor Gold cup back in November!
Click to expand...

I regularly back that many horses in big handicaps - especially at the festival. I haven't had a losing festival since I started working this way, whereas previously throwing 1 or maybe 2 arrers at it inevitably ended with me losing my dough and repeating the phrase "I was thinking about backing that one".
 
Grasshopper said:
For Joe Public, who are only looking for an interest bet, it remains a complete lottery of a race.

We will all of us have been there. On the days leading up to the big race, our friends and family - knowing our interest in the sport - will routinely ask us via Facebook/text/whatever, to give them a horse for the National. You try giving them half a dozen horses with a staking-plan attached, and see how far you get. They want one horse only, and if it doesn't win, you're basically a muppet/loser as far as they're concerned.

I agree that judicious selection of multiple horses can generate profit on the race. Usually, you can narrow it down to a half-dozen or so with a real chance, and hope that you get the breaks. If you do, then landing the winner is certainly achievable. But it's not really 'picking the winner' in the classic sense - not in my book, at any rate. It's more like astute tank-management to me.
Click to expand...

I agree almost entirely with this view, GH.

However, this is a racing forum for enthusiasts and serious students, not to mention owners and part-owners. We aren't Joe Public. My assertion is made in that context.

If the market value dictates that it makes sound sense for me to back two, three or even four in a 10-12-runner handicap on a Saturday then the same sense applies when tackling the National.

In the National, for me it's as important to dismiss the chances of short-shots - if there is such a thing in the National - as it is to find a value longshot. Without having studied the form yet, for example, my initial instinct is to dismiss Blaklion as being badly handicapped for the race. Possibly Total Recall as well. That's the two market leaders out straight away (although I will allow myself a change of mind once I've assessed the group likely to make the cut and once the form of the next few weeks kicks in).
 
Last edited:
Then, of course, they're running over a distance greater than most of them have ever ran before and that eliminates a lot of them. Oh for the days when lots of them were running from out of the handicap and horses carrying more than 11st didn't win [sigh].
 
simmo said:
I regularly back that many horses in big handicaps - especially at the festival. I haven't had a losing festival since I started working this way, whereas previously throwing 1 or maybe 2 arrers at it inevitably ended with me losing my dough and repeating the phrase "I was thinking about backing that one".
Click to expand...

Whatever works for you Simmo, I'll do 2 or maximum 3 in the handicaps and if I can make a case for half the field I just don't bet in the race.
My lightbulb moment with regards to the Festival was changing the way I bet, used to be win only but changed so anything at 6/1 or higher was backed each way, this made a huge difference personally.
 
That's exactly my approach Darren. The Championship races I nail my colours to the mast and might add one each way if I see some value. In the handicaps I back two or three each way. I've no interest in backing anything in the handicaps that I can't get at an each way price. A lot of hard work and this approach has served me very well.
 
I'd love to see a list of every winner people have had in the National.

I know my first go I backed 3 horses EW Freddie The Fossa and Forest Price and they finished 2nd 3rd and 4th to Jay Trump.

Despite backing a host of horses each year I had to wait 5 years for my first winner Gay Trip.

Then another 11 years to my nest winner Aldaniti

8 years later Rhyme and Reason

2 years later Mr Frisk

Then amazingly I back Red Marauder Smarty Blowing Wind and Beau who would definitely have finished in the first 4 but for being the last horse to fall when leading....

9 years later Don't Push It

6 Winners in 47 years ......Good Average I would say about the norm
 
Last edited:
simmo said:
I regularly back that many horses in big handicaps - especially at the festival. I haven't had a losing festival since I started working this way, whereas previously throwing 1 or maybe 2 arrers at it inevitably ended with me losing my dough and repeating the phrase "I was thinking about backing that one".
Click to expand...

Dutch Schultz made a fortune doing that......hence the name dutching. Have done it several times myself at the Chelt festival but the flat I find near impossible in big handicaps
 
Seagram (50p as an 11 year old)
Rough Quest
Lord Gyllene
Red Marauder
Comply Or Die
Ballabriggs
Auroras Encore (never to be repeated!)
One For Arthur

Not a bad record but anything prior to Comply Or Die was a case of choosing via a three line description in the Saturday paper. Just goes to show current methods are no better!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Have had quite a few over the years [starting with Team Spirit when I was a kid which got me hooked on racing]. Used to have far fewer bets years ago, though. Was chuffed when I was the only one in my racing club to back Seagram. I cheated and followed Eddie Freemantle when he wrote for the Observer. Earth Summit was probably the easiest because of the ground. Now I have to admit to having loads of tiny bets because I can't bear the thought of not getting the winner.
 
I have a good record in the GN (10 winners since 1970; many places), including Aurora’s Encore. It’s so good that I feel genuinely pissed off if I don’t at least break even. I cannot abide the pinstickers in my household who get lucky, either.
 
Back
Top