Doncaster Skybet Chase

As things stand, Russell's only other confirmed ride at Donny is It's O Kay for Olly Murphy in the Mares Bumper.

He isn't jocked-up on anything at Fairyhouse, and will presumably pick-up further spares at the English meeting.
 
The ground is looking pretty chewed up on Town Moor - I'd be amazed if Lami has the resolution to win this
 
Excellent return from absense for Long House Hall, especially as the ground will have been to soft for him.
 
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He's also got winning form going right handed, so I wonder if Long House Hall would be the type for the Betbright chase at Kempton next month? With better ground he'd have a massive chance. I wonder when the entries come out...
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I'm going to keep my powder dry for the time being as the weather looks uncertain. I was all over LHH like a rash for the Massey-Ferguson but he was self-certificated on the morning. He had, though, been withdrawn twice before due to 'unsuitable [soft] ground' and on his only try at the trip over hurdles appeared not to get home. I still like the horse but I don't want to throw away ante-post money should it rain a lot.
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I think that's about the only thing I've got right this weekend. :(
 
Just think that was a really strange move by connections to run LHH in this. I'd included him in a small multiple I think for is it the Byrne Plate at the festival ? I can never remember the names of these damn races but I think he'd have a fair shout in that judged by todays effort.

And Des at least you got one thing right, I've had an utter nightmare today.
 
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Marble said:
This looks a competitive handicap chase at this moment in time. I've been keeping an eye on Long House Hall the past few days and Harry Skelton is marked down on The Racing Post as riding him, but it seems he doesn't want too much cut in the ground, so I think anyone backing him needs to wait at least until final declarations baring in mind the ground is soft now.
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Entries for the Kempton Betbright Chase should be out on Monday. I'd love to see Long House Hall in there. With good ground he'd be a cracking bet.
 
Marble said:
Entries for the Kempton Betbright Chase should be out on Monday. I'd love to see Long House Hall in there. With good ground he'd be a cracking bet.
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I'm sure I saw his name in the National entries. He jumped beautifully the last day.
 
Absolutely mate. The National is ultimately a lottery though, and will hopefully be an afterthought, after he hacks up hard-held next week at Kempton. He's won at Market Rasen so going right handed is not a problem. I'd see anything more than about 6/1 an absolute gift. I hope connections do the right thing by punters and run him at Kempton. We need these good things to keep us afloat!
 
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Marble said:
The National is ultimately a lottery though,
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I've never understood this view of the National, I have to say.

Occasionally there is a surprise result but you can say that of the history of nearly every race.

The National, like the Hennessy or County Hurdle, is usually won by a very well-handicapped horse.
 
That's true; but it's also won by a well handicapped horse that has had luck in running. I've realised that since reading my Go Down to the Beaten book.
 
Yes that's what I meant, Moe. E.G you need a lot less luck in running, also a lot less likely to be taken out by a loose horse etc, running over 3M at Kempton than Aintree, surely?
 
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Yes, of course, but it's still far from a lottery.

It's arguably the easiest big handicap of the year of which to find the winner.
 
Used to be; alas, this is the first year I can remember that I haven't got a clue about which horse could win it. I've found it progressively more difficult over the last few years.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, of course, but it's still far from a lottery.

It's arguably the easiest big handicap of the year of which to find the winner.
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I dispute this, to be honest.

If you fire a single arrow at the National, you might be on the best horse in the race, but your bet is in the laps of the Gods. If you fire multiple arrows - as you have confessed to do in the race - it becomes exponentially less difficult, the more arrows you fire.

Any way I look at it, the National is still a hard race to win in, if you adopt a very strong position, and back only one horse. Indeed, most every race becomes easy to figure out, if you cover 15%+ of the field, but your ROI will generally take a pasting.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, of course, but it's still far from a lottery.

It's arguably the easiest big handicap of the year of which to find the winner.
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Really???.....The Grand National 100/1 66/1 33/1 33/1 25/1 25/1 all the the last few years

The Betfair Hurdle only one horse Splash of Ginger over 20/1 in 10 years and the Hennessy the same.


You obviously never checked before making such a ridiculous statement.............Hands up anyone who has picked more than 3 winners from only 3 selections of the National in their life

Most punters back 5 or 6 and still don't get the winner
 
Whilst I'd agree with Grassy's points about finding the winner I would still say it is a punter friendly race. I think you could normally rack up a decent shortlist of horses at decent prices and backing a few e/w with the various place terms on offer you stand more than a fair chance of making a profit without backing the winner and if you do get the winner then its a bonus.

And for all people would say it was a lottery there have been some fair old proper gambles landed with the likes of Papillion and Bobbyjo amongst others down the years that suggests that to some people its not as much of a guessing game as you'd think.
 
Pretty sure Agrapart won the Betfair at 20/1.

Bet 365 make the National a very punter friendly race with arguably the bookie offer of the year. Getting 50% of your total stake returned no matter what means you can back 5 and still turn a profit if just one places. It’s very rare I have an ante post bet on the race these days as the horse would have to halve in odds for me to get value.

But yes, finding the winner in a 40 field handicap over 4 miles is rather difficult.


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