Douvan - two questions

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
24,803
1. Is he beatable?

2. Is he value at 1/3 let alone 1/4?


I'm struggling to get a rating for Douvan that would justify his price. He may be the Istabraq of the current Irish chasers in that he's been handed a string of wins when the opposition have been jockeying for second place yet still have the class to post a figure approaching 180 if circumstances require it but on my figures he hasn't so far.

I backed Fox Norton (8/1) back in November as he was shaping up as ticking all the boxes regarding a typical Champion Chase winner and at that stage I secretly hoped Douvan would end up missing the race. Assuming Altior doesn't have a late change of plan Fox Norton strikes me as the one most likely to take advantage of any flaw in Douvan's make-up but I wonder what kind of in-the-know confidence there is behind the favourite to get him so short.

FWIW, I reckon Altior would rip him to shreds.
 
1) anything is beatable in a horse race.
2) i'd tissue him around 1/5. the opposition is very much below average to my eye.
 
Douvan is currently 1.39 on Betfair. I think 2/5 on the day will have the big hitters out. Fox Norton is currently 19.5 on Betfair. A better question might be at what price would you back him now win only.
 
I'd agree with above. Why Douvan isnt a ratings darling is easily explained. Its likely that he wouldn't need to become one to win next week and the same conversation can be repeated until he meets Altior.
 
It's a price intended to point you to the 'Without...' market, imo.

The bookies can only get a scalping in the Champion Chase, because even if Douvan underperforms (and there is scant evidence that this will be the case), he can still win the race. They don't really have anything running for them, and I think think they want to discourage entry into the market as a result. It's an almost identical story with Altior in the Arkle.

To answer the questions, Douvan is technically beatable, but not on any known form. Insofar as price is concerned, I'd hesitate to back a chaser in a walkover at 1/3, but there is absolutely nothing to go to war with against Douvan. If there is a market to get involved in, then it's the 'Without Douvan' one, I reckon.
 
Grasshopper said:
... even if Douvan underperforms (and there is scant evidence that this will be the case), he can still win the race.
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I'm not so sure. I'm not sure what depth there is in the established 2m ranks in Ireland so he'll only ever be tested when he comes over here.


Grasshopper said:
It's an almost identical story with Altior in the Arkle.
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Again, I don't see it [on the figures]. Altior has figures on the board that would win a whole lot of Champion Chases yet he's going down the novices' route. I can't get anything within a stone and a half of Altior yet he's roughly the same price as a horse I don't even have top rated.




Grasshopper said:
To answer the questions, Douvan is technically beatable, but not on any known form. Insofar as price is concerned, I'd hesitate to back a chaser in a walkover at 1/3, but there is absolutely nothing to go to war with against Douvan. If there is a market to get involved in, then it's the 'Without Douvan' one, I reckon.
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I just don't see that he's so bombproof. Then again, I'm not so sure I'd want to go laying him although I could be tempted at shorter than 1/4. His current short odds means the 'without' market is also cramped as the prices are reduced by 'way more than 50%.
 
I think his two least impressive runs have been at Cheltenham, particularly if you take a line through sizing john.

I can't see him being beaten and he's entitled to be the price he id given the opposition, however I might be tempted to back the under line in the distance markets. Haven't seen those yet mind you.

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Is he beatable?


as it was shown in that bookies advertisment
there are only 3 sure things in life

taxes
death
and frankel




douvan is very good , is also overrated, the oposition he has faced and will face next wednesday is very weak
most likely winner, but race to watch, no angles in betting for me.
 
I think the reason you might not get a rating that reflects those odds Desert Orchid is because the odds also represent his consistency. If Douvan was only a 5lb better horse than the rest of the field, he would still be odds on, because its clear from his form that he is extremely likely to run to his form. I don't think a horse always has to have 20lbs in hand on ratings to be the most likely winner of a race. Likelihood of producing your form allied to a smaller rating superiority can also point to the most likely winner.
 
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Frankel nearly got beat by his jockey in the SJP just like Ruby and Mullins did to Faugheen on his seasonal reappearance two years ago. Even the unbeatable can be beaten.

Coming back to Douvan, I'm glad the discussion is more rational now approaching the race, then it was 6 months ago. Altior would crush Mullins dreams but Nicky said he's not willing to do that to him, not after what he's been through this season. Hopefully we can see them against each other next season.
 
sunybay said:
Is he beatable?


as it was shown in that bookies advertisment
there are only 3 sure things in life

taxes
death
and frankel




douvan is very good , is also overrated, the oposition he has faced and will face next wednesday is very weak
most likely winner, but race to watch, no angles in betting for me.
Click to expand...

That complete nonsense........open your mind up Suny............Sizing John is a very very good horse and would be a superstar right now is Douvan was not around.

Go and watch him win his Arkle from 4 out along with Sprinter Sacre from 4 out from his and you will soon realise this is one fast animal who makes good horses look very slow
 
Desert Orchid said:
1. Is he beatable?

2. Is he value at 1/3 let alone 1/4?


I'm struggling to get a rating for Douvan that would justify his price. He may be the Istabraq of the current Irish chasers in that he's been handed a string of wins when the opposition have been jockeying for second place yet still have the class to post a figure approaching 180 if circumstances require it but on my figures he hasn't so far.

I backed Fox Norton (8/1) back in November as he was shaping up as ticking all the boxes regarding a typical Champion Chase winner and at that stage I secretly hoped Douvan would end up missing the race. Assuming Altior doesn't have a late change of plan Fox Norton strikes me as the one most likely to take advantage of any flaw in Douvan's make-up but I wonder what kind of in-the-know confidence there is behind the favourite to get him so short.

FWIW, I reckon Altior would rip him to shreds.
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I'm not surprised you are struggling to find a rating for him or anything else when you think a first season novice would beat the highest rated horse in the land.

Nicky Henderson biggest wish is they step Douvan up next season as he has no desire to take him on
 
In my view, DO, Douvan's form is measurably better than any other horse (that is going to be) in the race. I would say his superiority is, at a minimum, a half-stone......and that's down at the conservative end of the scale - and I just can't see how you can't have him top-rated.

You surely can't rate Altior higher (despite the fact they would be close-enough matched on a tenuous line through Fox Norton), and the only other alternative is Un De Sceax - but he is an NR (as indeed will Altior be).

You might not know about the depth of the Irish 2m chasing scene, but then again, you don't really need to. Measuring Douvan from that lot is a waste of time, his superiority is so great. But you do know the strength of the UK 2-mile division, and it's about as average as it's possible to get. None of the Irish can beat Douvan, and from what we know of them, none of the British runners can beat him either. Quibbling about an actual rating for the horse is splitting-hairs, imo. He has the clear beating of the lot of them whatever way you slice it.
 
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He wins barring a fall, but at the price he's unbackable. There are two betting angles On him though. The first is to back whatever you fancy to place each way and to lay back the win part on Betfair. Generally what your left with is better than the price in the without market. The second is backing him in doubles with other selections on the day.
 
on what I have seen
Altior was a much better hurdler than Douvan
also a better novice chaser too

what will happen is Douvan will up in trip to avoid Altior next season
 
Tanlic said:
That complete nonsense........open your mind up Suny............Sizing John is a very very good horse and would be a superstar right now is Douvan was not around.

Go and watch him win his Arkle from 4 out along with Sprinter Sacre from 4 out from his and you will soon realise this is one fast animal who makes good horses look very slow
Click to expand...

I wish you improve in coming decades reading the form book

Sprinter Sacre as a novice chaser would have beaten douvan as easily as he did to Cue Card and company
 
Suny and DO, how well would Douvan have to perform next week to persuade you to change your minds?
 
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