S
SlimChance
Guest
Do you like anything in the race? Muthadee has it to find on the ratings and 6/1 is not give-away.
Dubai World Cup 2012
- Thread starter Harbinger
- Start date
S
SlimChance
Guest
Thanks suny.
maythehorsebewithyou
At the Start
- Joined
- Apr 27, 2009
- Messages
- 202
Ambitious Dragon does look good and has fitness edge over the Euros - was hoping for a little but more than the 5-1 on offer though.. Cityscape does interest me a little at 14-1 (and probably will go off higher on the international markets) - I have wanted to see him step up in trip for a while..
maythehorsebewithyou
At the Start
- Joined
- Apr 27, 2009
- Messages
- 202
oh and get well soon Bob Baffert!!
B
Bruce_Savage
Guest
Sad news about his heart attack but he's a strong guy and should pull through.
Pearsy
At the Start
I second that MTHBWY- Bob is one of the game's real characters.
Have a fantastic time in Dubai mate- v jealous I must admit
A cursory glance has thrown up the following for me- may back all of 'em just for the craic :lol::lol:
2.10 Western Aristocrat 8/1
2.45 Barbican 10/1
4.00 Better Be The One 18/1
4.35 Krypton Factor 10/1
5.25 Dark Shadow 7/1
6.00 Jakkalberry 33/1
6.40 Planteur 14/1
Barbican is v interesting. A Ballydoyle castoff unraced at 2 and improving at a rate of knots. One to follow for the season for me. Better Be The One was placed in the same race last year and looks primed for a repeat bid so should be a value play. Jakkalberry has been knocking on the door in these big middle distance contests and just needs things to drop right to get in the money imho. Planteur is a frustrating type, so working on the theory that he goes well fresh and only has 1 really good run per season in him I'm gonna get involved at 14/1.
Small stakes the order of the day as it looks like a minefield as per.
Gl with all selections folks
Agree on Barbican. Followed him last year and will do so again this year as he'll no doubt continue to be underestimated.
If you like him are you not also keen on Beaten Up? His performance in beating Barbican was one of the most taking I saw on the flat last year, particularly given his inexperience for his age.
If you like him are you not also keen on Beaten Up? His performance in beating Barbican was one of the most taking I saw on the flat last year, particularly given his inexperience for his age.
Pearsy
At the Start
Yep he looks v progressive also Aragorn, will definitely include him in my multiples and hopefully I'll have backed a winner by the time the Sheema Classic goes off so i can back him in a single as well :lol:
The World Cup looks a fairly straightforward contest, imho.
Game On Dude has a coffin box draw, and maybe won't last home given he'll have to be made a lot of use of early. Suspect stamina at this distance, anyway.
Smart Falcon is also a pace horse, but has a much better draw, a near perfect record, stays the distance well, and the likely strong gallop is all in his favour.
Give the probable make-up of the race, So You Think hasn't an earthly of lasting home, imo, and the biggest worry is that he'll be withdrawn, leaving a sizeable rule 4 to contend with.
All imo, of course.
Game On Dude has a coffin box draw, and maybe won't last home given he'll have to be made a lot of use of early. Suspect stamina at this distance, anyway.
Smart Falcon is also a pace horse, but has a much better draw, a near perfect record, stays the distance well, and the likely strong gallop is all in his favour.
Give the probable make-up of the race, So You Think hasn't an earthly of lasting home, imo, and the biggest worry is that he'll be withdrawn, leaving a sizeable rule 4 to contend with.
All imo, of course.
prince regent
Conditional
- Joined
- May 2, 2003
- Messages
- 588
tight track and short straight should suit syt they could be much better for him than the galloping tracks with long straights like newmarket
rumour is hes going to go back to aussie soon to start his stud career so he should be tuned up for this and he goes well fresh
that said i dont though think he finishes his races well so for a bet i think smart falcon could be the one
rumour is hes going to go back to aussie soon to start his stud career so he should be tuned up for this and he goes well fresh
that said i dont though think he finishes his races well so for a bet i think smart falcon could be the one
Gamla Stan
At the Start
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- Aug 19, 2005
- Messages
- 4,337
Ohi is definitely traditional dirt.
Isn't Mendip a massive price for the big one? Only two defeats on Tapeta came when he had trouble at the start, 33/1 is very big given he's taken care of a lot of the UAE horses before. I wouldn't back So You Think at 11/2 let alone 5/2. Zazou not without a shout either at 14s, good win LTO on synthetics. Be playing those pair and Eishin Flash in forecasts.
Songcraft looks one to be on in the Sheema, 20s is massive. Was unlucky LTO when Zanzamar hung into him up the whole straight and still looks progressive. Front three are all two short for various reasons for me.
I'd love to back The Factor in a match bet with Rocket Man.
gigilo
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,796
The meydan stuff i know someone who just does these and the bigger meetings,see if this is any use to you!!
Meydan Saturday 31st March 2012
A superb card as you’d expect with the money on offer awaits us this Saturday. I will go through each race in time order culminating with a selection or two for each race. All races are priced up by at least one bookmaker, though you might want to wait in some instances to have some price competition from others before placing any bets. There are a few prices that leap out at me though and I’m more than happy to take them now.
For each race I will start with a few trends/statistics, with this being just the 3rd season at Meydan, most of them can be taken with a pinch of salt, however it’s worth noting that in many of the races the same prep races that led to winners at Nad Al Sheba are doing the business at Meydan.
2.10: Godolphin Mile
Last 10 Years
Ages
4: 3 wins
5: 6 wins
6: 1 win
Top Jockey
Frankie Dettori has won this 4 times in the last 10 years including 2 of the last 3 renewals. The other 6 races have all been won by a different jockey on each occassion.
Top Trainer
No surprise given the top jockey that the top trainer is Saeed Bin Suroor who has trained each of Dettori’s 4 winners. Once again the other 6 renewals have been shared amongst handlers with Godolphin winning the last 3 renewals with the help of Al Zarooni in 2010.
Final Prep run
Not much of a pattern here with some stepping up from sprinting. Placing in the Burj Nahaar would be a good starting point and last years winner came into the race having won the Firebreak stakes.
2012 Firebreak Stakes
1: Sandagiyr
2: Tamaathul
3: African Story
2012 Burj Nahaar
1: African Story
2: Snaafy
3: Musir
Price Of Winner
Not a race for shocks! In the last 10 renewals only 2010 winner Calming Influence has been priced bigger than 7/1, he was 14/1. The favourite has a 40% Strike rate in the Godolphin Mile.
Armed with the above all roads lead us to the 2/1 jolly African Story ridden by Dettori and trained by Bin Suroor. He met some trouble in running in the Firebreak and was the horse to take from the race and duly bolted up from stall 4 in the Burj Naahar in a very good time. On Saturday he comes from the same stall and looks set to be towed into the race by stablemate Do It All, it looks set up to continue the excellent record that SBS and Dettori have in this race.
The two horses at bigger prices that interest me the most are Western Aristocrat for Jeremy Noseda and Derbaas for Al Raihe.
The former comes here without a prep, but that is of little concern as he has won on seasonal debut in 2010 and 2011 and travel will not be an excuse with him shipping to both East and west Coast America last year winning at Belmont and placing at Hollywood Park. Just one run on a synthetic surface at Kempton last year where he broke the track record and in doing so had Godolphin horse Spring Of Fame who’s gone 2/1/2 at this year’s Carnival 12.5ls behind! I think at 8/1 he is the eway play and the most likely horse for the forecast.
Derbaas might be getting older and wiser at 6 but he has still shown us some ability this year despite not troubling the scorers. Richard Hills has a great chance of a winner in the Pure Bred Arabian race, but I think he could cause a surprise here by at least making the frame and what a way to bow out of a long and distinguished career that would be. He had the choice of 4 at declaration stage and went for Derbaas the longest priced horse of the 4 and the horse with the fastest time over course and distance (When he was a 4yo). This will be a token bet with the heart probably ruling the mind.
African Story 0.8pts win 2/1 Bet 365
Western Aristocrat 0.25pts eway 8/1 Paddy Power ¼ odds places 1/2/3
Derbaas 0.1 pts eway 20/1 William Hill ¼ odds places 1/2/3
1.5 points staked
Dubai Gold Cup
Trends
This is just the 4th running of the event so little to go by here other than the significant trend of wanting your horse to be wearing blue and trained by Bin Suroor. The Godolphin handler has saddled all three winners to date! Dettori has ridden two of them with Michael Barzelona winning the middle leg of the treble. One of the winners was Favourite, one second favourite and one an unconsidered 20/1 shot.
Two of the winners were 5 the 20/1 shot was a 4 year old
Godolphin have three in this and the stats say Grand Vent will win being the sole representative of Bin Suroor. Totally unexposed with regards the trip as he takes a huge step into the unknown he could be a dark horse, especially with the weight for age he receives as a 4yo. Given a quiet one by Dettori last time it’s hard to no what you are going to get but as you are making a lot of assumptions against fact with the pair of Al Zarooni runners it is to his barn we must go to find the winner.
I’m surprised Dettori has hopped off Fox Hunt and chosen to ride Opinion Poll as I cannot see him beating the younger horse unless it’s a repeat of last years Sheema Classic when Ajtebi almost stuck Calvados Blues into the rail to allow Frankie through on Rewilding, something he confirmed was the plan post race! Of course that was Opinion Poll’s seasonal debut and he could well have come on a ton for the run now upped in trip, I just see Fox Hunt as having more scope to improve at this trip. With that being in mind and not being in on the team talk I have to back both horses and stick them in a reverse forecast, though preference is for Fox Hunt.
Fox Hunt 0.6 pts win 100/30 Bet Fred
Opinion Poll 0.25 pts win 7/2 Stan James/William Hill
0.15 pts reverse forecast
1.15 points staked
3.25 UAE Derby
Trends
Ages
3: 5 wins
4: 5 wins
Top Trainer
Bin Suroor 5 wins
Mike De Kock 5 wins
This pair have totally dominated this event in the last ten years and the last four renewals have gone MDK/SBS/MDK/SBS…. Will the pattern continue?
Top Jockey
2: Dettori
2: Marwing
Winning SP
Not a race for shocks, although Regal Ransom won in 2009 at 16/1 and Blues and Royals at 33/1 in 2005,no other winner has been bigger than 7/1 and 7 have been 5/1 and under.
Prep Races
Two stand head and shoulders above all others and that’s the current seasons UAE 2000 Guineas and the same season’s Al Bastikya. Five of the last ten winners won the 2000G, four won or placed in the Al Bastikya and one horse, Blues and Royals came here without a prep.
2012 2000 Guineas
1: Kinglet
2: Mickdaam
3: Mehdi
2012 Al Bastikya
1: Mickdaam
2: Surfer
3: Counterglow
Selections
3 horses catch my eye, the first and the horse that looks the eway steal of the meeting at 6/1 is Mickdaam for Mike De Kock. 2nd behind Kinglet, he improved for the step up in trip and soundly dispatched that rival in the Al Bastikya. A strong traveller, he’s everything you want in a horse on this track and I see him if remaining fit playing a big part in next years World Cup.
The second horse is the American Lucky Chappy who was 2nd in the El Camino Real Derby LTO which is run on Tapeta, he was beaten just a nose by Daddy Nose Best who gave the form a major lift when winning the Sunland Derby last week and in doing so booking his ticket to the Kentucky Derby in May. He’s a hold up horse so the 1 box is the perfect draw as can fall out of the stalls and build a nice steady pace down the back before making a move. At 16/1 he looks over priced with his Tapeta experience.
The last token bet as this one has not had a prep is for the Champion Canadian 2 year old Maritimer who surely if he has trained on is over priced at 25/1? Very impressive in Canada on Polytrack at up to 9 furlongs I will pay a few sheckels to see if the abilty is retained as a 3 year old.
I know O’Brien has 2 in this, including a Breeders Cup winner and he almost took this race last year with Master Of Hounds, but I am happy to have these three running for me.
Mickdaam 0.8 pts eway 6/1 Paddy Power ¼ odds places 1/2/3. &s available at 1/5th odds
Lucky Chappy 0.2 points eway 16/1 VC/Hills/Paddy/Stans/365
Maritimer 0.1 pts eway 25/1 Bet 365/VC
2.2 points staked
Meydan Saturday 31st March 2012
A superb card as you’d expect with the money on offer awaits us this Saturday. I will go through each race in time order culminating with a selection or two for each race. All races are priced up by at least one bookmaker, though you might want to wait in some instances to have some price competition from others before placing any bets. There are a few prices that leap out at me though and I’m more than happy to take them now.
For each race I will start with a few trends/statistics, with this being just the 3rd season at Meydan, most of them can be taken with a pinch of salt, however it’s worth noting that in many of the races the same prep races that led to winners at Nad Al Sheba are doing the business at Meydan.
2.10: Godolphin Mile
Last 10 Years
Ages
4: 3 wins
5: 6 wins
6: 1 win
Top Jockey
Frankie Dettori has won this 4 times in the last 10 years including 2 of the last 3 renewals. The other 6 races have all been won by a different jockey on each occassion.
Top Trainer
No surprise given the top jockey that the top trainer is Saeed Bin Suroor who has trained each of Dettori’s 4 winners. Once again the other 6 renewals have been shared amongst handlers with Godolphin winning the last 3 renewals with the help of Al Zarooni in 2010.
Final Prep run
Not much of a pattern here with some stepping up from sprinting. Placing in the Burj Nahaar would be a good starting point and last years winner came into the race having won the Firebreak stakes.
2012 Firebreak Stakes
1: Sandagiyr
2: Tamaathul
3: African Story
2012 Burj Nahaar
1: African Story
2: Snaafy
3: Musir
Price Of Winner
Not a race for shocks! In the last 10 renewals only 2010 winner Calming Influence has been priced bigger than 7/1, he was 14/1. The favourite has a 40% Strike rate in the Godolphin Mile.
Armed with the above all roads lead us to the 2/1 jolly African Story ridden by Dettori and trained by Bin Suroor. He met some trouble in running in the Firebreak and was the horse to take from the race and duly bolted up from stall 4 in the Burj Naahar in a very good time. On Saturday he comes from the same stall and looks set to be towed into the race by stablemate Do It All, it looks set up to continue the excellent record that SBS and Dettori have in this race.
The two horses at bigger prices that interest me the most are Western Aristocrat for Jeremy Noseda and Derbaas for Al Raihe.
The former comes here without a prep, but that is of little concern as he has won on seasonal debut in 2010 and 2011 and travel will not be an excuse with him shipping to both East and west Coast America last year winning at Belmont and placing at Hollywood Park. Just one run on a synthetic surface at Kempton last year where he broke the track record and in doing so had Godolphin horse Spring Of Fame who’s gone 2/1/2 at this year’s Carnival 12.5ls behind! I think at 8/1 he is the eway play and the most likely horse for the forecast.
Derbaas might be getting older and wiser at 6 but he has still shown us some ability this year despite not troubling the scorers. Richard Hills has a great chance of a winner in the Pure Bred Arabian race, but I think he could cause a surprise here by at least making the frame and what a way to bow out of a long and distinguished career that would be. He had the choice of 4 at declaration stage and went for Derbaas the longest priced horse of the 4 and the horse with the fastest time over course and distance (When he was a 4yo). This will be a token bet with the heart probably ruling the mind.
African Story 0.8pts win 2/1 Bet 365
Western Aristocrat 0.25pts eway 8/1 Paddy Power ¼ odds places 1/2/3
Derbaas 0.1 pts eway 20/1 William Hill ¼ odds places 1/2/3
1.5 points staked
Dubai Gold Cup
Trends
This is just the 4th running of the event so little to go by here other than the significant trend of wanting your horse to be wearing blue and trained by Bin Suroor. The Godolphin handler has saddled all three winners to date! Dettori has ridden two of them with Michael Barzelona winning the middle leg of the treble. One of the winners was Favourite, one second favourite and one an unconsidered 20/1 shot.
Two of the winners were 5 the 20/1 shot was a 4 year old
Godolphin have three in this and the stats say Grand Vent will win being the sole representative of Bin Suroor. Totally unexposed with regards the trip as he takes a huge step into the unknown he could be a dark horse, especially with the weight for age he receives as a 4yo. Given a quiet one by Dettori last time it’s hard to no what you are going to get but as you are making a lot of assumptions against fact with the pair of Al Zarooni runners it is to his barn we must go to find the winner.
I’m surprised Dettori has hopped off Fox Hunt and chosen to ride Opinion Poll as I cannot see him beating the younger horse unless it’s a repeat of last years Sheema Classic when Ajtebi almost stuck Calvados Blues into the rail to allow Frankie through on Rewilding, something he confirmed was the plan post race! Of course that was Opinion Poll’s seasonal debut and he could well have come on a ton for the run now upped in trip, I just see Fox Hunt as having more scope to improve at this trip. With that being in mind and not being in on the team talk I have to back both horses and stick them in a reverse forecast, though preference is for Fox Hunt.
Fox Hunt 0.6 pts win 100/30 Bet Fred
Opinion Poll 0.25 pts win 7/2 Stan James/William Hill
0.15 pts reverse forecast
1.15 points staked
3.25 UAE Derby
Trends
Ages
3: 5 wins
4: 5 wins
Top Trainer
Bin Suroor 5 wins
Mike De Kock 5 wins
This pair have totally dominated this event in the last ten years and the last four renewals have gone MDK/SBS/MDK/SBS…. Will the pattern continue?
Top Jockey
2: Dettori
2: Marwing
Winning SP
Not a race for shocks, although Regal Ransom won in 2009 at 16/1 and Blues and Royals at 33/1 in 2005,no other winner has been bigger than 7/1 and 7 have been 5/1 and under.
Prep Races
Two stand head and shoulders above all others and that’s the current seasons UAE 2000 Guineas and the same season’s Al Bastikya. Five of the last ten winners won the 2000G, four won or placed in the Al Bastikya and one horse, Blues and Royals came here without a prep.
2012 2000 Guineas
1: Kinglet
2: Mickdaam
3: Mehdi
2012 Al Bastikya
1: Mickdaam
2: Surfer
3: Counterglow
Selections
3 horses catch my eye, the first and the horse that looks the eway steal of the meeting at 6/1 is Mickdaam for Mike De Kock. 2nd behind Kinglet, he improved for the step up in trip and soundly dispatched that rival in the Al Bastikya. A strong traveller, he’s everything you want in a horse on this track and I see him if remaining fit playing a big part in next years World Cup.
The second horse is the American Lucky Chappy who was 2nd in the El Camino Real Derby LTO which is run on Tapeta, he was beaten just a nose by Daddy Nose Best who gave the form a major lift when winning the Sunland Derby last week and in doing so booking his ticket to the Kentucky Derby in May. He’s a hold up horse so the 1 box is the perfect draw as can fall out of the stalls and build a nice steady pace down the back before making a move. At 16/1 he looks over priced with his Tapeta experience.
The last token bet as this one has not had a prep is for the Champion Canadian 2 year old Maritimer who surely if he has trained on is over priced at 25/1? Very impressive in Canada on Polytrack at up to 9 furlongs I will pay a few sheckels to see if the abilty is retained as a 3 year old.
I know O’Brien has 2 in this, including a Breeders Cup winner and he almost took this race last year with Master Of Hounds, but I am happy to have these three running for me.
Mickdaam 0.8 pts eway 6/1 Paddy Power ¼ odds places 1/2/3. &s available at 1/5th odds
Lucky Chappy 0.2 points eway 16/1 VC/Hills/Paddy/Stans/365
Maritimer 0.1 pts eway 25/1 Bet 365/VC
2.2 points staked
That's a worry, Aragorn - where did you read it?
B
Bruce_Savage
Guest
Don't know how anyone can bet on this Dubai card - too many unknown quantities.
Gamla Stan
At the Start
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2005
- Messages
- 4,337
That's the point, so many under rated horses in the betting.
B
Bruce_Savage
Guest
Do you seriously know the form book of Japanese, Australian, South African & American racing?
If you do then I want to be what you're on tomorrow!
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I get you. But:
3s Cirrus
10/3 SNA
9/2 Beaten Up
Those prices are just flat out wrong. Cirrus Des Aigles is a top class beast, has the best form and has a run under his belt. SNA might have won the worst BC race ever last time out and Beaten Up is promising but why have the books got massive boners for William Haggas all of a sudden? This is a big step up in class for that horse. Stakes are small as some yoke from shitsville Turkmenistan might be lurking of course.