Eclipse Stakes

Interesting table. Percentage of Group races in October won by 3yo's since about 1980 (missing the last 2 years). Tells a story of races which are targets for the best 3yo's having a greater percentage of wins more than a general WFA caused trend.

Race 3yo %
Prix de Flore 77%
British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes 75%
Prix de l'Opéra 71%
Premio Lydia Tesio 68%
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes 68%
Prix du Conseil de Paris 65%
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 65%
Concorde Stakes 55%
St. Simon Stakes 55%
Challenge Stakes 55%
British Champions Sprint Stakes 52%
Champion Stakes 50%
Prix André Baboin 50%
Cumberland Lodge Stakes 44%
Gran Premio del Jockey Club 39%
Premio Omenoni 38%
Prix Royal-Oak 38%
Darley Stakes 33%
Breeders Cup Classic 31%
Canadian International 29%
Breeders Cup Mile 28%
Breeders Cup Ladies Classic 28%
British Champions Long Distance Cup 25%
Breeders Cup Sprint 24%
Breeders Cup Turf 23%
Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf 21%
Bengough Stakes 20%
Breeders Cup Marathon 20%
Breeders Cup Dirt Mile 17%
Premio Vittorio di Capua 14%
Premio Verziere 11%
Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint 0%
Breeders Cup Turf Sprint 0%
Premio del Piazzale 0%
 
EC1 said:
i see...interesting table
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Wouldn't surprise me to find out the Yanks have discarded Admiral Rous (which is as decent a means of handicapping by age as exists imo).

I'd need to understand if US trainers specifically target the Breeders Cup before you could say that targeting was the issue with those races.
 
Do 3 year olds mature at a quicker rate throughout the season than 4+ year olds?

If so...and I think most would suggest they do .. Then that's that then isn't it?

All the stats in the world wont change that will they?
 
simmo said:
Wouldn't surprise me to find out the Yanks have discarded Admiral Rous (which is as decent a means of handicapping by age as exists imo).

I'd need to understand if US trainers specifically target the Breeders Cup before you could say that targeting was the issue with those races.
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they haven't changed wfa in breeders cup Simmo..for example

BREDDERS CUP CLASSIC
Distance 1¼ miles
Record 1:59.02, Ghostzapper (2004)
Track Dirt, Left-handed
Qualification 3-year-olds and up
Weight 4-year-olds and up: 126 lb (57.2 kg); Northern Hemisphere 3-year-olds: 122 lb (55 kg); Southern Hemisphere 3-year-olds: 117 lb (53 kg); fillies and mares allowed 3 pounds.
Purse US$5 million
 
Well they wfa doesn't change throughout the season does it?

But the gap in a ability does doesnt it? Three year olds physically close the gap if they develop faster than 4 year olds
 
Noticed that the gap in the arc is 8lbs and the KGB is 12lbs so I suppose it is taken into account as season goes on

Never noticed that before. And not bothered anyway
 
SteveM said:
I was talking historically. But in this instance those data points, plus the published rationale for WFA in connection with the physical development of the 3yo, plus Newton’s Law of General Relativity (the bit on universal gravitation) is enough for me to not need to go further in this instance.
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Aside from your second point (Newton would also acknowledge the presence of other external factors affecting his acceleration formula in a horse race), does the published WFA rationale therefore state that horses are disadvantaged by the WFA scale in July more so than in October?

I have still yet to see a statistic that even suggests that three year olds are disadvantaged by the WFA scale in it's current guise.
 
I’m actually against WFA concessions for so-called championship races, as I believe the best absolute horse should be allowed to win (and this would encourage horses to be kept in training as older horses). But that aside it seems apparent that at this stage of the season the 3yos have a task to perform in the Eclipse, which becomes easier by the end of the season.

This started out by my making the simple (and what seemed to me fairly innocuous comment) that three-year-olds are up against it (against the older horses) in the Eclipse (as opposed to the Arc). It is a comment made through watching a lifetime of racing and backed up by relative failure and success in the respective races, together with an awareness that a 3yo is going through a pronounced growing phase during these months. After what amounts to the Spanish Inquisition forming to refute this (showing I might add the flimsiest of so-called ‘proof’ to the contrary), I am no less of the opinion that 3yos are indeed up against it in the Eclipse.
 
simmo said:
Is WFA different in the USA?

I'm noticing a distinct favouring of older horses in the Breeders Cup races.
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It's not that it's different in the US, the difference narrows the later it gets in the year (on an international basis) as the 3yos are deemed more physically able to compete with the older horses.
 
SteveM said:
After what amounts to the Spanish Inquisition forming to refute this (showing I might add the flimsiest of so-called ‘proof’ to the contrary), I am no less of the opinion that 3yos are indeed up against it in the Eclipse.
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Nicely put...
 
If there was no WFA in championship races you would see close to no 3yo's running in these. How that would affect the program book who knows. It's all fair and well to make assertions based on perception but that is all they are. Trying to "sell" them as facts is where things get murky. Facts should have some sort of coherent evidence to the claim which in your case they do not. The flimsiest of proof as you put it is still more than you have to offer.

You talk about the experience of a lifetime of racing. How many years might that be then?
 
brendanr said:
If there was no WFA in championship races you would see close to no 3yo's running in these. How that would affect the program book who knows.
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That may be true if things remained the same. But what I'm suggesting is precisely revision to to programme where 3yos are given ample opportunity to compete at their own level.
 
SteveM said:
After what amounts to the Spanish Inquisition forming to refute this (showing I might add the flimsiest of so-called ‘proof’ to the contrary), I am no less of the opinion that 3yos are indeed up against it in the Eclipse.
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its called analysis Steve...imo you are basing your opinion on statistical anomalies..re the Arc particularly

what is demonstrated with the "inquisition" is that races go through phases..the november handicap is a good example..used to be farmed by 3yo's...which when it was... would have fed your belief that 3yo's are favoured by the wfa in that race if we were talking in the late 1990's

Its now not won by 3yo's...and yet nothing has changed..so nothing was favoured by weights otherwise it would occur now.

The Arc is going through a november handicap 1990's stage at the moment.

The Eclipse shows no evidence that 3yo's find it difficult to win..its not a race that is remotely like the Arc in that 3yo's are staple diet of that race..its a big target for them..the Eclipse less so.

DO...i find it odd that you are taking that line..you want to read the thread properly for a start..reasoned argument has been put forward ...there is no inquistion...we are debating a subject...what's your problem with it?

I know what Steve's problem with it is..he's not winning the argument;)...only kiddin
 
SteveM said:
That may be true if things remained the same. But what I'm suggesting is precisely revision to to programme where 3yos are given ample opportunity to compete at their own level.
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If you did that would you not stamp out a large chunk of the history of horse racing which has thrived on measuring 3yo's against their elders?
 
SteveM said:
That may be true if things remained the same. But what I'm suggesting is precisely revision to to programme where 3yos are given ample opportunity to compete at their own level.
Click to expand...

we have discussed this times many Steve...we even worked out loads of Arcs with the wfa removed as i seem to remember

i think under your plan we would be stripped of the 3yo v older generation spectacles that we all enjoy. You wouldn't achieve anything imo..except damage the racing programme.

We don't have the luxury in horse racing that we do in athletics...horses are in their prime for a short period of time...we need to capture that time and let horses meet each other before one set is fully mature. In athletics you can let people develop to maturity...then let them compete against each other when mature. We don't have to catch Bolt when he's 17 and pit him against the best mature runner..we can wait..can't do that in horse racing without having the WFA. Our "championship" races would not be that under your plan as they would be devoid of a generation of potential champions.
 
EC1 said:
DO...i find it odd that you are taking that line..you want to read the thread properly for a start..reasoned argument has been put forward ...there is no inquistion...we are debating a subject...what's your problem with it?
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It was meant in jest in the sense that it wouldn't be unheard of for the likes of you and me to spend ages putting forward reasoned argument, facts and statistics etc only to be told by some w@nker or other that we're talking sh1te (putting it mildly) or that we should get the fcuk off the forum (maybe not in so many words) with our stupid notions.
 
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