Eclipse Stakes

The winner could be an ideal Breeders Cup Classic candidate with his style of racing and attitude.
Our old pal Nick Mordin has a theory that you need stamina,stamina and more stamina to sustain your position on Dirt.
Mukhadram certainly has the right attitude for the job.
 
EC1 said:
its incorrect to you..due to how you perceive value though Stan..that is the crux..we all see or calculate value differently..there is no correct way if what i do works for me and what you do works for you.
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Your original point was that if the favourite is underpriced then everything else must be value? That is incorrect as it depends on how much you personally think the favourite is undervalued by, as I illustrated I didn't think Night of Thunder was overvalued by The Fugue being undervalued.

I hope you bet my tissue anyway ;)
 
If True Story isn't aimed at the Breeders Cup Turf, they might as well give up. Most obvious long-term target for him.
 
True Story is magnificent example of a thoroughbred to the eye. He looked way the best in the Derby and he probably looked best in the Eclipse I'm sure.
But he's a shirker. Watch his Dante run. He doesn't want a fight. I wouldn't invest any of my money on him.
 
I had a good look at them all on Saturday. I thought Kingston Hill looked a little less impressive than before Derby. Was carrying my money but just an impression

The winner could be an ideal Breeders Cup Classic candidate with his style of racing and attitude.
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Hes a real fav of mine. Its all clear now isnt it but he was a decent bet for saturday. Hardly a million mles away from the very top and he really acts on the course doesnt he? But would he be one for tight turns in the breeders?

Has no one mentioned that perhaps the three year old form isnt quite a wonderful as assumed ?
 
To be fair Clivex the three year olds present had all question marks re ground and trip.
That they finished in a heap behind the first three is encouraging if inconclusive.
Should Sea The Moon , Mukhadram , Magician, Trading Leather and the good Gosden RA winner show up in King George where would your cash go ?
I have no clue as of now tbh.
 
I wouldn't be writing off the 3 year olds off on the back of that race given how the race panned out.
As for the KG. Telescope is fav though i hope they supplement Eagle Top which appears likely.
 
edgt said:
To be fair Clivex the three year olds present had all question marks re ground and trip.
That they finished in a heap behind the first three is encouraging if inconclusive.
Should Sea The Moon , Mukhadram , Magician, Trading Leather and the good Gosden RA winner show up in King George where would your cash go ?
I have no clue as of now tbh.
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Telescope .
 
Trading Leather's a really admirable horse isn't he; in 7 group 1's he's now finished in the first three in the last six of them and in five of those in the first two and the only unplaced run was in the Racing Post Trophy 2 years ago. I suspect the bookies will probably overreact to Mukhadrams win and he will be a short enough price next time he runs, he may well be worth opposing, usually he finds 1 or 2 too good. I know who I'll be more likely to back if I see 2/1 Mukhadram 5/1 The Fugue if they meet again in similar conditions.

I must admit I was very surprised not to see Kingston Hill racing alongside Trading Leather throughout the race, he probably should have been more involved in the finish. I've come to the conclusion the only way True Story is going to win a race at this grade is to sit just behind a strong pace, find himself in the lead almost by accident as the pacesetter dies and hope the line comes before another horse worries him out of it. The one I fear for is Night of Thunder, he didn't look like he could run to the line to me at this distance at this level and I suspect he may already have been overtaken by the pair that ran in the Jersey (especially the winner) in the 3yo miler pecking order behind Kingman, his greatest day may well be behind him, but what a cover on his sales brochure when he retires; Winner of the 2014 2,000 Guineas beating Kingman and Australia, connections wouldn't swap that for anything.

I hated the ride Franny Norton gave Somewhat, I was convinced before the race he was going to win a good Handicap off his 102 mark as I had the impression he could potentially run to a 112-115 mark if everything went his way and I anticipated his tailed off in the Eclipse would only get me a bigger price, that hope is well and truly gone now; connections may be delighted but I'm well and truly gutted.

I couldn't help but think when the Eclipse had finished what a lost opportunity this was; potentially it was possible to have added Australia, Kingman, Magician, Noble Mission and The Grey Gatsby to this race and what a race to savour that would have been. I fully appreciate the reasons why connections chose different targets, but the winner of that race really would have deserved superstar status; I would have got the popcorn out for that one.
 
Surprised they even ran Kingston Hill considering they'd passed on the Irish Derby - on slightly kinder ground and over 2f further. Certainly wasn't ridden near as positively as Epsom, and you'd have to think they were itching to get a run into him (KG was surely a better option), and this was maybe a looksee for the rest of the season?
 
Ajdal said:
I hated the ride Franny Norton gave Somewhat, I was convinced before the race he was going to win a good Handicap off his 102 mark as I had the impression he could potentially run to a 112-115 mark if everything went his way and I anticipated his tailed off in the Eclipse would only get me a bigger price, that hope is well and truly gone now; connections may be delighted but I'm well and truly gutted.
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I was miffed in that I backed him at Royal Ascot (at something silly like 12/1, given he was top rated, iirc, on both ORs and RPRs) where he ran well but not to his best form. On RPRs he would have won if he'd shown the form he showed on Saturday. Maybe they just got the pace wrong last time.

However, while I agree he could have won a good handicap off 102, it would need to have been a really good one, one worth upwards of £80ooo, in which case he'd have been up against two or three proper handicap plots (as there always is for that kind of money). As it is, he earned more for running third in the Eclipse than he would have got for winning the Tercentenary. I don't imagine that was the plan since before Ascot as they wouldn't have known how the Eclipse was going to pan out but it has certainly proved to be a silver lining and then some.
 
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Gamla Stan said:
If True Story isn't aimed at the Breeders Cup Turf, they might as well give up. Most obvious long-term target for him.
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They are talking about lowering True Story’s sites to the Rose of Lancaster at Haydock but he’s also entered for the Juddmonte International. He does appear to be frustrating, but bear in mind that 3yos have a tough time in the Eclipse. They need all of their wfa at this stage of the season (as opposed to later on when they are at an advantage in races like the Arc).
 
The WFA issue is just a racing urban myth...there are no months that favours 3yo's any more than others in reality..imo

if there was then 3yo's would win with a greater % of their races in those months you think are favoured and less in the months you think they struggle Steve...would you agree?

these are the monthly win % figures for 3yo in 3yo+ races..from Flatstats site

3yo
April 11.9%
May 10.7%
June 11.9%
July 11.8%
August 11.6%
September9.8%
October 10.1%
November 5.3%

4yo

April 8.7%
May 8.6%
June 10.3%
July 9.9%
August 9.9%
September 8.6%
October 7.0%
November 12.8%

September..the month many believe 3yo's are more favoured is actually the month they perform worse in

its also fair to comment that 3yo's will win a higher % in every mnoth due the to the unexposed factor kicking in

there isn't any period there that favours 3yo or disadvantages them..not from where i'm looking anyway

True Story has posted a solid speed figure on my calcs of 113..that's how good he is..as said I've said on numerous occasions since he last won..he hasn't run below form..he just isn't as good as everyone including Timeform think he is.
 
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Using just the Eclipse to measure whether 3yo's are at a disadvantage over the last 30 years

approx 30% of the total runners are 3yo
approx 36% of the runners are 4yo

3yo have won 9 times = 30%
4yo have won 10 times = 33%

3yo's supply 30% of the runners and same amount of winners..4yo near enough the same.

I'm not seeing the WFA making any difference..its certainly not disadvantaging 3yo's anyway
 
EC1 said:
The WFA issue is just a racing urban myth...there are no months that favours 3yo's any more than others in reality..imo

if there was then 3yo's would win with a greater % of their races in those months you think are favoured and less in the months you think they struggle Steve...would you agree?

these are the monthly win % figures for 3yo in 3yo+ races..from Flatstats site

3yo
April 11.9%
May 10.7%
June 11.9%
July 11.8%
August 11.6%
September9.8%
October 10.1%
November 5.3%

4yo

April 8.7%
May 8.6%
June 10.3%
July 9.9%
August 9.9%
September 8.6%
October 7.0%
November 12.8%

September..the month many believe 3yo's are more favoured is actually the month they perform worse in

its also fair to comment that 3yo's will win a higher % in every mnoth due the to the unexposed factor kicking in

there isn't any period there that favours 3yo or disadvantages them..not from where i'm looking anyway

True Story has posted a solid speed figure on my calcs of 113..that's how good he is..as said I've said on numerous occasions since he last won..he hasn't run below form..he just isn't as good as everyone including Timeform think he is.
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Self fulfilling stat maybe though. 3 year olds more highly tried later in the season?
 
not seeing how they are more highly tried Clive.even if they are thats off-set by the fact they they have more scope to improve

the figures clearly show there is no golden period..or non golden period..same with eclipse..3yo aren't disadvantaged in it at all

i think people hear this through the years and just believe it..same as "back outsider of 3" sort of thing
 
Without any particular stats to back it up - let's face it, even good stats will be busted by a special one - I've always had the period between the King George and the Juddmonte as the tipping point for 3yos. If anything, I associate the Juddmonte with a 3yo that is a late developer and has been given time but, again, that's just perception rather than fact-based.
Thus, while the percentages for 3yos are even for the season, is there any mileage in the thought that they vary with the distance of the race and that it's later in the season that they're more competitive over a mile and a half because of the extra maturity?
 
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It is perception Archie.

Before computers i was brought up on all these perceptions throughout the 70's onwards. It was engrained in my head that 3yo's can't beat older horses early in the season as the wfa wasn't enough..I never really heard the other one about them being favoured later tbh

I heard a good one on C4 the other day..Mick Fitz was on about wfa at 5f distance being 5lb...then he said its even more generous in the Eclipse as its 10lb...i couldn't believe what i was hearing..of course its more lbs Mick..its double the bloody distance man.

I think what needs to be brought into the discussion is rate of progress per month...because we are talking like a 3yo is a baby in May..but some highly developed athlete suddenly in October just for the Arc..i don't think it works like that

I read a Beyer book where ..using a lot of data that he must have..he says that horses develop about 1 to 1.25 of his speed points per month from the age of 2 to 4yr. So his research from all the data he has..years of it..suggest that horses develop a similar amount per month...they don't just suddenly start developing more quickly between April and August.

I personally have found looking at speed figures that the development is more progressive when a horse is 2yo..then in their 3yo period its less.

A horse on the clock at 2 imo improves 19lb as a 2yo..and 13lb as a 3yo..at a mile. So you have 32lbs worth of time improvement split in that way.

So on race times we have one scale of measuring improvement...and on the lbs scale we have a different one. If the weight one was so wrong from September onwards we would have clear evidence of it with 3yo's winning more handicaps and other Group races..apart from just the Arc.

To me..there are not enough good older horses run in the Arc to fairly represent the 4yo/5yo horse generation..over a period of years this then favours the 3yo through lack of oppo rather than a few lbs in weight
 
How many years data is that EC?

I don't disagree, the whole concept of using weights and measures as an exact science in a sport with literally hundreds of variables still stumps me.
 
Gamla Stan said:
How many years data is that EC?

I don't disagree, the whole concept of using weights and measures as an exact science in a sport with literally hundreds of variables still stumps me.
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Does anyone use them as an exact science?

I understood everyone used them as a tool to give them a better idea of the value of the form of a race or the ability of a horses or group of horses.

A lot of calculations involved in the various compilation methods will allow for certain variables too. So while it isn't an exact science it goes some way towards limiting the amount of guesswork involved.
 
EC1 said:
The WFA issue is just a racing urban myth...there are no months that favours 3yo's any more than others in reality..imo

if there was then 3yo's would win with a greater % of their races in those months you think are favoured and less in the months you think they struggle Steve...would you agree?
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I think we need more depth to those stats before making a judgement. I'd like to know how it breaks down in terms of distance and in terms of class of race.

Look at the Eclipse and Sussex Stakes. 3yos receive 11lbs in the former and 8lbs in the latter but they are vastly different tests and given the distance and make-up of the courses I believe they are advantaged in the latter race. A belief the roll of honour might seem to support.
 
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