Epsom Derby 2012

betsmate

betsmate

At the Start
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Dec 7, 2004
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I couldn't see a thread for this yet.

5/4 Camelot has to mean there is value elsewhere.

Did anyone see the Prix Greffulhe? Was Kesampour good value for the Aga's decision to supplement him at Epsom? Only won a G3 by a head, but comments in running suggestion it was comfortable enough.

What is O'Brien going to win the Derrinstown with?
 
Parish Hall looked the type of Dewhurst winner who would be more at home over 12f than a mile. If he's still around 20s that's fair value.
 
betsmate said:
Did anyone see the Prix Greffulhe? Was Kesampour good value for the Aga's decision to supplement him at Epsom? Only won a G3 by a head, but comments in running suggestion it was comfortable enough.
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I saw the race - thought it was a messy affair (pacemaker cocked up the start) and he didn't exactly impress.

What is O'Brien going to win the Derrinstown with?
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No idea, but hopefully Ernest Hemingway.
 
Wrote is a very interesting proposition for the Derby.
He should stay the trip and has enough experience for the race.
He seems to be improving with every run as well.

However he is available at huge prices for the race on betfair and it would be interesting to see him in a proper trial first. I couldn' t help myself and I grabbed those tripple digit odds a few days ago. Hope he lines up in the field for the race.
 
davidjohnson said:
Bit disappointed Ernest not even amongst the entries for Chester this week.
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Might be on route for the St Ledger David?

Looks like he could be Aidan's Ebor horse this year as I know he likes a backwards three year old for the race.
 
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Mickdaam is in the Chester classic trials this week. Now there's a 3yo colt who I think could be progressive: Wouldn't know whether the derby would be for him but you never know.

Re-Camelot. I think in theory he's a certianty, but I do feel he almost showed too much speed over a mile for him to have the right blend of stamina and speed for a derby. There'll be horses like Akeed Mofeed who are absolotely sure to see it out well, and whilst I'm not saying Camelot won't, he certainly showed more turn of foot than I thought: More than say Sea The Stars did in his Guineas.

Camelot did the sectionals with an eletric turn of foot over 8F at Newmarket on dead ground: Doing the right sectionals over 12F at Epsom is a slightly different proposition. Theres bound to be several horses to come in to the picture in the next few weeks.
 
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Owners want Mickdaam to run Marb but I can't see it. I get the impression the trainer feels the same way.

Too ungainly for Epsom I reckon.
 
Do they Aragorn? I never knew that. Has that been on one of the websites by chance, can you put up a link, cheers.

It could be a classic case of people thinking the horse hasn't a chance, only for him to run in a trial and prove people wrong. I won't have a penny on until I see him declared in a trial at which time I'll start to nibble the prices, if you lot don't do it before me that is. :)
 
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davidjohnson said:
Bit disappointed Ernest not even amongst the entries for Chester this week.
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From the RP:

O'Brien said on Sunday: "Wrote is a possible for the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial on Sunday. David Livingston may run in the Chester Vase at Chester and I don't know about Ernest Hemmingway. Maybe the Dante. We'll see what happens."

Doesn't inspire confidence, does it? :lol:
 
Can't see MICKDAAM enjoying running at Chester.

Ran his worst race to date at Goodwood.

Surely too long striding to cope with the tightness of the Roodeye.
 
Aidan sure to run as many as he can at Epsom. Going back to 2007 when he ran nine they all had Group 2 or 3 form both before and after Epsom. Alot of them sold on well afterwards with Eagle Mountain flying the flag on many continents. In 2009 they finished in a heap with only heads separating them behind Sea The Stars. Derrick Smiths colours have yet to win The Derby after multiple second places. No doubt he will stack the field to get the right result. Remember with China now in the game it is a new home for the placed also rans.
 
Yeah in a maiden on his second career start, Colin. He had three months off after that (think something went wrong that probably can't be attributed to the track). He's since improved officially over 2 stones, and if Homecoming Queen is good enough to win a classic, using the same sort of logic, in terms of being beaten X amount of times, it could be argued Mickdaam is still an unknown quantity, no?

The form of his last run is not working out: That is the biggest worry, but we'll see.

And is Meydan an easy left handed track to get around?
 
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Marb
Robin O´Ryan, assistant to trainer Richard Fahey: "Mickdaam is a nice horse but still a big baby. He didn´t act at Goodwood last time and it was all too much for him.
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Meydan AW is a flat 1m circuit, so Chester shouldn't be too much of a problem. Epsom would be a different kettle of fish entirely.
 
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Thanks for that information, Reet. Until you try it you'll never know for absoloute sure. Yes Goodwood and Epsom are both sharp, and bearing in mind what the trainer said you'd have to say that was a negative, so point taken. But fahey is not the type of a dickhead that would run the horse at Epsom unless he thought he'd handle the track, assuming he gets to the stage of seeming like a contender.

I reckon it's a right handed sharp track issue myself, as on his next run when winning his maiden at York he is noted as hanging left.

I remember how his dad Dubawi hung so badly left in the Guineas when beaten as short favourite: Maybe there is a loose screw in the family, I don't know. I'm not forcing anyone to back him, just saying he could be one to watch at Chester. Mickdaam will show whatever his best form turns out to be on a left handed track. I'm certain of that.
 
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Gareth Flynn said:
I saw the race - thought it was a messy affair (pacemaker cocked up the start) and he didn't exactly impress.
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Ok thanks. I had planned to line him up in some doubles on Saturday but none of the UK bookmakers were betting at Saint-Cloud. Once I'd left him out I forgot to try and watch the race.
 
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