Epsom Derby 2012

He's a cracking each way bet at 10s with such a small field. If he gets ahead like At First Sight etc have, they will do very well to peg him back. Bonfire won't be catching him with his stamina stretched.
 
Good result for Bruce with a Camelot Lay, Main Sequence 16-1, Bonfire 8-1 and Astrology 25-1 going into the final field where they are all likely to shorten again which could be one of my finest touches to date.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Marble, are all the runners covered as far as TH analysis is concerned?
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Hi Colin. Surprisingly no one has written up a preview on Astrology yet.

Also waiting for previews on Cavaleiro, Rugged Cross, and Minimise Risk.

Get these in A.S.A.P please.
 
On The Bridle said:
Or a complete hole opening if Camelot sluiced up...good luck Bruce
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Not going to beat around the bush OTB but I'm feeling quite tense, imagine if Camelot wins by 10l I'll never post on here again through embarrassment :lol:

You going to the two days?
 
"selling smoke or arriving at a reflection of reality?"

What kind of reality are you talking about if one of the strongest influence of stamina for the last 10 years is not even included in your system?. How much longer do you need to wait to do so? How different Camelot's dosage figures would be once Montjeu is recognize as a stamina influence by the system?
Montjeu is just an axample of many other sires whose influence in nowadays runners is not included in the system untill it's too late.

"The Dosage system helped us to select the winner and first four in 2008 "

Could you please explain to me how the Dosage system helped you to select Tartan Bearer for the 2008 Derby? ( and then again he is just an example to prove my point). Your good judgement did it for you, but certainly it wasn't Dosage. More smoke.
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2008/2008_epsom_derby_preview.htm
 
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LBM said:
"The Dosage system helped us to select the winner and first four in 2008 "

Could you please explain to me how the Dosage system helped you to select Tartan Bearer for the 2008 Derby?
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I think there might be a big clue in the word helped.
 
Here goes, Marble.

ASTROLOGY A.P.O'Brien - Ryan Moore

A January foal, bay colt by Galileo and the first foal of Ask For The Moon, winner of the Group 1 St. Alary in 2004.

There must be a slight doubt about Astronomy getting the 12f. but he was running on at the end of the Dee Stakes over 10.5 at Chester but against three rather moderate opponents.

His bare form so far doesn't look good enough for a Derby win but must have a chance of claiming a place.

The present odds of 8/1 are not tempting enough to drag me in.
 
Cheers Colin. I'll post the thread up now and if we can get the other three done (think someone said they'd do Caveleiro) then I'' just edit them in. Post there here first though please.
 
Don't think there's any need for a new thread, will only split the discussion and confuse people (i.e. me!).
 
Minimise Risk - Andrew Balding - JP Spencer

Note the colours on your racecard Satuday morning next to this 410,000 purchase who is rated 96 as this won't be the last time Dr Jim Hay has an Epson classic runner. The only shred of hope I can provide to the son of Galileo who finished last of the five runners in the Chester Vase is that he happens to have won the same Newbury maiden as 2006 Epson Derby 4th Hala Bek.

For Jamie Spencer this will be the second year in a row that he rides a 100/1 rag in the Derby having partenered David Simcock's Marhaba Malyaan to finish a respectable last twelve months ago. One wonders will Spencer allow his mind to wander for a second during the preliminaries to ponder how it might have been him getting the leg up on hot favourite Camelot. His best finish in the Epson Derby came on his first ride in the classic when the then twenty one year old finished 3rd aboard Moon Ballad for Godolphin. The irony being he was overlooked that year with rumours suggesting at the time that he was in line for which of Hawk Wing and High Chapparal that Mick Kinane rejected. Having been intrusted with riding Hawk Wing in that years 2000 Guineas one could not help thinking at the time that this was a hugely talented jockey who would ride many a classic winner.

After his split from O'Brien he rode for David Wachman at Epson in 2005 finishing fourth but was without a ride in 2006 and 2007. The highlight since his maiden ride in the race was a Spencer special in 2009 when having Crowded House stone last for most of the way to be produced on the outside to finish a distant fifth. On Saturday he has his first ride in Epson for a rising force in the bloodstock world. Dr Jim Hay has the potential to establish himself among the ownership elite but Saturday will not be his day but a sign of the future. Therefore it must also be a pointer to future for Jamie Spencer as a Group One jockey. After all Spencer is very much Hay's man after a stellar 2011 yielding Group 1 wins on both sides of the Atlantic. He is a more mature and polished jockey than he was after his split with O'Brien in 2004. Aiden and Jamie's words after Fame and Glory won the Ascot Gold Cup are worth reading again. They show wounds are healing and Spencer has closed that chapter on his career.
I didn’t blame him for running away from me,” said the trainer. “We are getting along a lot better now,” said the jockey.

If Moon Ballad's 3rd in Epson was the arrival of Spencer on the Derby scene than perhaps Minimise Risk's participation on Saturday is the start of his revival.
 
Maybe Trackside could write something about the horses form and I will join them together.

Wouldn't want to see a Talking horses homie snuffed out like this, unless he wants to be.





I'm drunk and lost...
 
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SlimChance said:
Minimise Risk - Andrew Balding - JP Spencer

Note the colours on your racecard Satuday morning next to this 410,000 purchase who is rated 96 as this won't be the last time Dr Jim Hay has an Epson classic runner. The only shred of hope I can provide to the son of Galileo who finished last of the five runners in the Chester Vase is that he happens to have won the same Newbury maiden as 2006 Epson Derby 4th Hala Bek.

For Jamie Spencer this will be the second year in a row that he rides a 100/1 rag in the Derby having partenered David Simcock's Marhaba Malyaan to finish a respectable last twelve months ago. One wonders will Spencer allow his mind to wander for a second during the preliminaries to ponder how it might have been him getting the leg up on hot favourite Camelot. His best finish in the Epson Derby came on his first ride in the classic when the then twenty one year old finished 3rd aboard Moon Ballad for Godolphin. The irony being he was overlooked that year with rumours suggesting at the time that he was in line for which of Hawk Wing and High Chapparal that Mick Kinane rejected. Having been intrusted with riding Hawk Wing in that years 2000 Guineas one could not help thinking at the time that this was a hugely talented jockey who would ride many a classic winner.

After his split from O'Brien he rode for David Wachman at Epson in 2005 finishing fourth but was without a ride in 2006 and 2007. The highlight since his maiden ride in the race was a Spencer special in 2009 when having Crowded House stone last for most of the way to be produced on the outside to finish a distant fifth. On Saturday he has his first ride in Epson for a rising force in the bloodstock world. Dr Jim Hay has the potential to establish himself among the ownership elite but Saturday will not be his day but a sign of the future. Therefore it must also be a pointer to future for Jamie Spencer as a Group One jockey. After all Spencer is very much Hay's man after a stellar 2011 yielding Group 1 wins on both sides of the Atlantic. He is a more mature and polished jockey than he was after his split with O'Brien in 2004. Aiden and Jamie's words after Fame and Glory won the Ascot Gold Cup are worth reading again. They show wounds are healing and Spencer has closed that chapter on his career.
I didn’t blame him for running away from me,” said the trainer. “We are getting along a lot better now,” said the jockey.

If Moon Ballad's 3rd in Epson was the arrival of Spencer on the Derby scene than perhaps Minimise Risk's participation on Saturday is the start of his revival.
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Epson?

You've either spent too much time listening to Aidan O'Brien or you're shamelessly using the forum to plug a printer company. :D
 
OK here goes with my effort -

Cavaleiro - Sir Percy ex Khibraat

Although seen as a rank outsider for Saturday’s classic there is a lot to like about Cavaleiro. By 2006 Derby winner Sir Percy and with Roberto as his dam’s dam sire his breeding suggests that 12f is an ideal trip for him and his performance in the Lingfield Derby Trial bears this out. Although slightly one paced and ultimately beaten nearly 7 lengths by winner Main Sequence he was staying on well at the end to finish perhaps surprisingly in 3rd place. Trainer Marcus Tregoning was happy with his seasonal reappearance and the fact that he stated that he had needed the run adds further points in his favour.

Cavaleiro is one of the highest rated progeny of Sir Percy who has already got off to a reasonable start at stud and he seems a likeable, straightforward type who has made solid progression from run to run. Never out of the places in all 6 of his starts, Cavaleiro has run on good to soft, good to firm and polytrack and with his arguably best performance to date being his win over the much fancied Harvard N Yale in the Haynes, Hanson and Clark Conditions Stakes at Newbury being on good to firm, Saturday’s likely ground conditions seem sure to suit. He has run on both right and left handed tracks and should have no problems handling the camber at Epsom.

Cavaleiro had a good race course gallop at Lingfield last Saturday where Marcus Tregoning said he had done the best bit of work he’d done all year. He is a nice colt who is a strong traveller and will definitely stay, his trainer is in great form at present and he will be ably partnered by the excellent Hayley Turner at Epsom who will be having her first Derby runner.

It is perhaps hoping for too much for Cavaleiro to follow in his father’s footsteps this Saturday and give us our first female Derby winning jockey in Hayley but I feel that he will finish a good deal closer to the principals than his odds would suggest and he’s definitely worth an each way shout.
 
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