Epsom Derby 2012

Zenyatta wrote:
I find it laughable that a Weekender piece that I paid to read specifically on dosage can put forward two horses to finish in the top three that fail to qualify on the dosage requirements as set out in that very piece.
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Neither Imperial Monarch nor Bonfire really 'fail to qualify on the dosage requirements'. For Bonfire dosage is irrelevant because his pedigree does not contain a sufficient number of chefs-de-race to establish his stamina potential.* For Imperial Monarch, while his DI suggests slightly too much stamina vis-a-vis speed influences to win a Derby, Steve has suggested that his (perhaps) demonstrated turn of foot might well counteract this.

*This illustrates, I think, one of the two very considerable limitations of the dosage index, that only the so-called chefs-de-race stallions are considered, thereby eliminating not only relatively new stallions but also those who have not established a prepotency for certain distances. The other limitation is also very serious: female families are not entered into the equation at all. This, I think, may help to explain the seeming anomaly of Sea The Stars' ability over 12f. While Urban Sea was sired by Miswaki, her (German I believe) female family had a relative abundance of stamina.

Hope this helps and does not serve to muddy the issues further.

FWIW, although I don't expect either to win, I think that both the Dylan Thomases - Devotion and Tower Rock - will do much better than their odds suggest. Dylan did.
 
I agree with you Zenyatta.

Sadly, you are obviously not going to hear from Steve the answers to most of your questions. You just have to make up your mind about it.

The sad part for me is that Steve will brag about how Dosage successfully helped him to identify Imperial Monarch as a second place getter of the race ( assuming he finishes second ) in next year's article, like he has done with others in this year's article ( like Tartan Bearer, who had a 0.60 DI and -0.25 CD ).

Surprised as well reading how much the figures changed after just one stalion (Rainbow Quest) being incorporated to the chef-de-race sires list.
Is Montjeu in that list yet? Dosage is just a puzzle with missing pieces.

You are selling smoke Steve.
 
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Nefertiti, we are singing from the same hymn sheet, exactly the same in fact. I too like both Devotion and Tower Rock though I am fearful that the latter may not take his chance given his weakness on the machine.

As regards the dosage discussion, I agree, and I have no problem with Steve using other factors to arrive at his conclusions. What I do have a problem with is him drawing conclusions that contradict his dosage analysis in a piece sold as being specifically about dosage. Therefore, his 'use' of dosage is limited to supporting the horses that he wants to support and it is ignored when it doesn't support the conclusions that he wants to draw.

That is exactly how I use dosage because I don't think it is very helpful. I don't understand why Steve claims to be a proponent of the method when he apparently uses it in exactly the same way as a massive sceptic like me. I don't really use it at all and his pieces would suggest that Steve doesn't either.
 
What a pile of crock from AOBrien - I backed IM (foolishly before the NRNB offer) and now he comes out with the crap about sending the horse to France.

Is Camelot really that unbeatable or is he just taking other horses out so that Camelot can maintain his record?

Will be switching to Thought Worthy now......
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruce_Savage
Can't really argue with someone who goes to Cambridge University that's a pretty high accolade.
In other quarters, this would be seen as irony.
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other quarters being the real world i think...
 
LBM said:
Sadly, you are obviously not going to hear from Steve the answers to most of your questions. You just have to make up your mind about it.
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But I've answered all of his questions more than once. Others get it. I can only repeat myself.
 
LBM said:
Surprised as well reading how much the figures changed after just one stalion (Rainbow Quest) being incorporated to the chef-de-race sires list.
Is Montjeu in that list yet? Dosage is just a puzzle with missing pieces.

You are selling smoke Steve.
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New chef-de-race stallions are assigned as an ongoing process. I have shown both the historic figures and readjusted ones where relevant. Stallions close up in the pedigree can make a big change to the figures, particularly when points in the pedigree are previously scant.

Montjeu is not yet a cdr, but is on review to be added (as is any potential stallion).

You say Dosage is a puzzle with missing pieces, this is exactly right as the system is constantly evolving as new stallions are added and others drop out of the pedigree for Dosage purposes.

Selling smoke or arriving at a reflection of reality?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Dosage identifies a horse's likely optimum distance not ability. No point suggesting a horse will be placed in the Derby if it has the perfect dosage index for 12f but can't run better than 110 at 12f. Better to look for others with prospects of hitting 120 or so with DIs better suited to 11f or 13f.
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Exactly so... it's a wonder to me that some struggle with this.
 
LBM said:
The sad part for me is that Steve will brag about how Dosage successfully helped him to identify Imperial Monarch as a second place getter of the race ( assuming he finishes second ) in next year's article
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But this isn't true. I would identify him as an outlier in the same way as I identified Sea The Stars as an outlier.

The Dosage identifies Imperial Monarch as a St Leger type rather than a Derby type. However, if the race were to be an extreme test of stamina and given that he has already shown a turn of foot he could come into it. This may prove academic for now though as it seems he'll be headed to France depending on the going.
 
Zenyatta said:
Nefertiti, we are singing from the same hymn sheet, exactly the same in fact. I too like both Devotion and Tower Rock though I am fearful that the latter may not take his chance given his weakness on the machine.

As regards the dosage discussion, I agree, and I have no problem with Steve using other factors to arrive at his conclusions. What I do have a problem with is him drawing conclusions that contradict his dosage analysis in a piece sold as being specifically about dosage. Therefore, his 'use' of dosage is limited to supporting the horses that he wants to support and it is ignored when it doesn't support the conclusions that he wants to draw.

That is exactly how I use dosage because I don't think it is very helpful. I don't understand why Steve claims to be a proponent of the method when he apparently uses it in exactly the same way as a massive sceptic like me. I don't really use it at all and his pieces would suggest that Steve doesn't either.
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The danger with everyone "getting it" would be that the air of mystique and the dodging of the straight answer that surrounds the system would be destroyed and the semi-interest in it would evaporate. The comfort in being the proponent of an unfathomable method appears to be that it allows you to be wrong with authority.
 
Steve, those last few posts do you no favours at all. I am sure anybody could see through the smoke if they tried.

I don't think I can really add anything because all I would be doing is repeating what I have already said.

If I refer you to Steve's piece on the 2000 Guineas (http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2012/2012_2000_guineas_preview.htm) you will find that he has done exactly the same thing. He has conducted a flimsy dosage analysis, made one selection from it, then disregarded the rest in favour of Camelot (the short priced favourite and a non-qualifier) and Born To Sea (another non-qualifier), who are quite blatantly two form selections who bear no resemblance to the dosage analysis whatsoever.
 
Final field:

Astrology
Bonfire
Camelot
Cavaleiro
Main Sequence
Mickdaam
Minimise Risk
Rugged Cross
Thought Worthy
 
Will be interesting for direct comparison of pace and times to have the Coronation Cup run on the Derby day card this year (and the usual 12f handicap too).
 
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