Epsom Derby 2020

M

Marb

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Mar 8, 2016
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At this stage it's as open and competative a derby as I have seen.

Dettori now takes the ride on the favourite English King.

A final classic clue could be this Wednesday when Highest Ground makes his seasonal debut. He has to beat Waldkonig.

If he does manage this, at least it will look like good form. I am tempted to take a chance on Highest Ground before Wednesday for the Derby.

Odds of 25/1 really could collapse couldn't they....
 
Last edited:
I was thinking how refreshing it would be for a relatively small yard to train the winner but I hope he loses now. That’s rough on Tom who is 2/2 on him.

Military March for me anyway
 
wilsonl said:
I was thinking how refreshing it would be for a relatively small yard to train the winner but I hope he loses now. That’s rough on Tom who is 2/2 on him.
Click to expand...

I used to hate it when Piggott got to jock off regular riders of fancied Derby horses.

I suppose this means Gosden doesn't have anything for it and Coolmore don't plan to offer him anything.
 
wilsonl said:
I was thinking how refreshing it would be for a relatively small yard to train the winner but I hope he loses now. That’s rough on Tom who is 2/2 on him.

Military March for me anyway
Click to expand...

If you are a small stable you probably only get one shot at the Derby. It's a complete no brainer to go to Frankie. I'd ask you to watch Tom on Born To Please at Royal Ascot last week where he chased a suicidal pace. Dettori does not make mistakes like that.
 
Slim said:
If you are a small stable you probably only get one shot at the Derby. It's a complete no brainer to go to Frankie. I'd ask you to watch Tom on Born To Please at Royal Ascot last week where he chased a suicidal pace. Dettori does not make mistakes like that.
Click to expand...

I do get this, and I backed Born With Pride - who even the normally non-critical RP analysis says received an “ill judged ride”. And the owner did state that it’s probably the only fancied horse he’ll ever have in the race.

It’s still tough on the lad, who’s had a very decent season to date and has ridden 6 winners from his last 13 rides :blink:
 
wilsonl said:
I was thinking how refreshing it would be for a relatively small yard to train the winner but I hope he loses now. That’s rough on Tom who is 2/2 on him.
Click to expand...

Funny really. I like the horse but the doubt I'd have about him would be the trainer not the original jockey.
 
Records for the two over the Derby course since 2017:

DETTORI

[TABLE="width: 95%, align: center"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="width: 12%"]Date[/TH]
[TH="width: 21%"]Race[/TH]
[TH="width: 23%"]Horse[/TH]
[TH="width: 9%"]Position[/TH]
[TH="width: 9%"]SP[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]£100 win[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]£50 each way[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ddffee"]
[TD]26 Apr 2017[/TD]
[TD]3:15 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]BARWICK[/TD]
[TD]3/9[/TD]
[TD]12-1[/TD]
[TD]-100[/TD]
[TD]70[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ccffdd"]
[TD]2 Jun 2017[/TD]
[TD]3:10 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]JOURNEY[/TD]
[TD]5/10[/TD]
[TD]7-2[/TD]
[TD]-200[/TD]
[TD]-30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ddffee"]
[TD]2 Jun 2017[/TD]
[TD]4:30 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]ENABLE[/TD]
[TD]1/9[/TD]
[TD]6-1[/TD]
[TD]400[/TD]
[TD]330[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ccffdd"]
[TD]3 Jun 2017[/TD]
[TD]4:30 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]CRACKSMAN[/TD]
[TD]3/18[/TD]
[TD]7-2[/TD]
[TD]300[/TD]
[TD]315[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ddffee"]
[TD]3 Jun 2017[/TD]
[TD]5:15 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]SHRAAOH[/TD]
[TD]4/10[/TD]
[TD]5-4[/TD]
[TD]200[/TD]
[TD]215[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ccffdd"]
[TD]1 Jun 2018[/TD]
[TD]3:10 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]CRACKSMAN[/TD]
[TD]1/6[/TD]
[TD]2-7[/TD]
[TD]228[/TD]
[TD]232[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ddffee"]
[TD]2 Jun 2018[/TD]
[TD]4:30 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]HAZAPOUR[/TD]
[TD]5/12[/TD]
[TD]12-1[/TD]
[TD]128[/TD]
[TD]132[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ccffdd"]
[TD]31 May 2019[/TD]
[TD]3:10 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]LAH TI DAR[/TD]
[TD]6/9[/TD]
[TD]11-4[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ddffee"]
[TD]31 May 2019[/TD]
[TD]4:30 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]ANAPURNA[/TD]
[TD]1/14[/TD]
[TD]8-1[/TD]
[TD]828[/TD]
[TD]512[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ccffdd"]
[TD]1 Jun 2019[/TD]
[TD]4:30 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]CIRCUS MAXIMUS[/TD]
[TD]6/13[/TD]
[TD]10-1[/TD]
[TD]728[/TD]
[TD]412[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

[h=3]Totals[/h][TABLE="width: 95%, align: center"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="width: 19%"][/TH]
[TH="width: 9%"]Bets[/TH]
[TH="width: 9%"]Wins[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]Win Strike Rate[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]Win %Return at SP[/TH]
[TH="width: 11%"]Placed (inc wins)[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]Place Strike Rate[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]Each-Way %Return at SP[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]All Selections[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]30.0%[/TD]
[TD]172.9%[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]50.0%[/TD]
[TD]141.3%

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]






MARQUAND

[TABLE="width: 95%, align: center"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="width: 12%"]Date[/TH]
[TH="width: 21%"]Race[/TH]
[TH="width: 23%"]Horse[/TH]
[TH="width: 9%"]Position[/TH]
[TH="width: 9%"]SP[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]£100 win[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]£50 each way[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ddffee"]
[TD]3 Jun 2017[/TD]
[TD]5:15 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]GAWDAWPALIN[/TD]
[TD]9/10[/TD]
[TD]9-2[/TD]
[TD]-100[/TD]
[TD]-100[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ccffdd"]
[TD]3 Aug 2017[/TD]
[TD]6:25 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]SAFIRA MENINA[/TD]
[TD]4/6[/TD]
[TD]9-2[/TD]
[TD]-200[/TD]
[TD]-200[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ddffee"]
[TD]25 Apr 2018[/TD]
[TD]3:20 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]C'EST NO MOUR[/TD]
[TD]13/13[/TD]
[TD]12-1[/TD]
[TD]-300[/TD]
[TD]-300[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ccffdd"]
[TD]28 Aug 2018[/TD]
[TD]3:50 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]AMANTO[/TD]
[TD]4/8[/TD]
[TD]10-3[/TD]
[TD]-400[/TD]
[TD]-400[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ddffee"]
[TD]4 Jul 2019[/TD]
[TD]8:20 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]FORESEE[/TD]
[TD]5/11[/TD]
[TD]6-1[/TD]
[TD]-500[/TD]
[TD]-500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ccffdd"]
[TD]18 Jul 2019[/TD]
[TD]8:15 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]EL BORRACHO[/TD]
[TD]5/5[/TD]
[TD]4-1[/TD]
[TD]-600[/TD]
[TD]-600[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

[h=3]Totals[/h][TABLE="width: 95%, align: center"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="width: 19%"][/TH]
[TH="width: 9%"]Bets[/TH]
[TH="width: 9%"]Wins[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]Win Strike Rate[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]Win %Return at SP[/TH]
[TH="width: 11%"]Placed (inc wins)[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]Place Strike Rate[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]Each-Way %Return at SP[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]All Selections[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0%[/TD]
[TD]0.0%[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0%[/TD]
[TD]0.0%

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


Figures from the excellent and FREE​ Adrian Massey site.
 
Slim said:
If you are a small stable you probably only get one shot at the Derby. It's a complete no brainer to go to Frankie. I'd ask you to watch Tom on Born To Please at Royal Ascot last week where he chased a suicidal pace. Dettori does not make mistakes like that.
Click to expand...

Nail on the head
 
Desert Orchid said:
I suppose this means Gosden doesn't have anything for it and Coolmore don't plan to offer him anything.
Click to expand...


It's not as if he's jumping on an outsider Do....Phone call comes: "I'll give you a call back in 20 mins, just want to see if Aiden got a second string for me"
 
Colin Phillips said:
Records for the two over the Derby course since 2017:

DETTORI

[TABLE="width: 95%, align: center"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="width: 12%"]Date[/TH]
[TH="width: 21%"]Race[/TH]
[TH="width: 23%"]Horse[/TH]
[TH="width: 9%"]Position[/TH]
[TH="width: 9%"]SP[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]£100 win[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]£50 each way[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ddffee"]
[TD]26 Apr 2017[/TD]
[TD]3:15 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]BARWICK[/TD]
[TD]3/9[/TD]
[TD]12-1[/TD]
[TD]-100[/TD]
[TD]70[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ccffdd"]
[TD]2 Jun 2017[/TD]
[TD]3:10 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]JOURNEY[/TD]
[TD]5/10[/TD]
[TD]7-2[/TD]
[TD]-200[/TD]
[TD]-30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ddffee"]
[TD]2 Jun 2017[/TD]
[TD]4:30 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]ENABLE[/TD]
[TD]1/9[/TD]
[TD]6-1[/TD]
[TD]400[/TD]
[TD]330[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ccffdd"]
[TD]3 Jun 2017[/TD]
[TD]4:30 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]CRACKSMAN[/TD]
[TD]3/18[/TD]
[TD]7-2[/TD]
[TD]300[/TD]
[TD]315[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ddffee"]
[TD]3 Jun 2017[/TD]
[TD]5:15 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]SHRAAOH[/TD]
[TD]4/10[/TD]
[TD]5-4[/TD]
[TD]200[/TD]
[TD]215[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ccffdd"]
[TD]1 Jun 2018[/TD]
[TD]3:10 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]CRACKSMAN[/TD]
[TD]1/6[/TD]
[TD]2-7[/TD]
[TD]228[/TD]
[TD]232[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ddffee"]
[TD]2 Jun 2018[/TD]
[TD]4:30 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]HAZAPOUR[/TD]
[TD]5/12[/TD]
[TD]12-1[/TD]
[TD]128[/TD]
[TD]132[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ccffdd"]
[TD]31 May 2019[/TD]
[TD]3:10 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]LAH TI DAR[/TD]
[TD]6/9[/TD]
[TD]11-4[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ddffee"]
[TD]31 May 2019[/TD]
[TD]4:30 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]ANAPURNA[/TD]
[TD]1/14[/TD]
[TD]8-1[/TD]
[TD]828[/TD]
[TD]512[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ccffdd"]
[TD]1 Jun 2019[/TD]
[TD]4:30 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]CIRCUS MAXIMUS[/TD]
[TD]6/13[/TD]
[TD]10-1[/TD]
[TD]728[/TD]
[TD]412[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Totals

[TABLE="width: 95%, align: center"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="width: 19%"][/TH]
[TH="width: 9%"]Bets[/TH]
[TH="width: 9%"]Wins[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]Win Strike Rate[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]Win %Return at SP[/TH]
[TH="width: 11%"]Placed (inc wins)[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]Place Strike Rate[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]Each-Way %Return at SP[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]All Selections[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]30.0%[/TD]
[TD]172.9%[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]50.0%[/TD]
[TD]141.3%
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]






MARQUAND

[TABLE="width: 95%, align: center"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="width: 12%"]Date[/TH]
[TH="width: 21%"]Race[/TH]
[TH="width: 23%"]Horse[/TH]
[TH="width: 9%"]Position[/TH]
[TH="width: 9%"]SP[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]£100 win[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]£50 each way[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ddffee"]
[TD]3 Jun 2017[/TD]
[TD]5:15 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]GAWDAWPALIN[/TD]
[TD]9/10[/TD]
[TD]9-2[/TD]
[TD]-100[/TD]
[TD]-100[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ccffdd"]
[TD]3 Aug 2017[/TD]
[TD]6:25 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]SAFIRA MENINA[/TD]
[TD]4/6[/TD]
[TD]9-2[/TD]
[TD]-200[/TD]
[TD]-200[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ddffee"]
[TD]25 Apr 2018[/TD]
[TD]3:20 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]C'EST NO MOUR[/TD]
[TD]13/13[/TD]
[TD]12-1[/TD]
[TD]-300[/TD]
[TD]-300[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ccffdd"]
[TD]28 Aug 2018[/TD]
[TD]3:50 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]AMANTO[/TD]
[TD]4/8[/TD]
[TD]10-3[/TD]
[TD]-400[/TD]
[TD]-400[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ddffee"]
[TD]4 Jul 2019[/TD]
[TD]8:20 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]FORESEE[/TD]
[TD]5/11[/TD]
[TD]6-1[/TD]
[TD]-500[/TD]
[TD]-500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ccffdd"]
[TD]18 Jul 2019[/TD]
[TD]8:15 Epsom[/TD]
[TD]EL BORRACHO[/TD]
[TD]5/5[/TD]
[TD]4-1[/TD]
[TD]-600[/TD]
[TD]-600[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Totals

[TABLE="width: 95%, align: center"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="width: 19%"][/TH]
[TH="width: 9%"]Bets[/TH]
[TH="width: 9%"]Wins[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]Win Strike Rate[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]Win %Return at SP[/TH]
[TH="width: 11%"]Placed (inc wins)[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]Place Strike Rate[/TH]
[TH="width: 13%"]Each-Way %Return at SP[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]All Selections[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0%[/TD]
[TD]0.0%[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0%[/TD]
[TD]0.0%
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


Figures from the excellent and FREE​ Adrian Massey site.
Click to expand...

Those stats look compelling but would it be a fair comparison? Frankie was riding top horses for top trainers in the top races. It looks like Marquand was riding in handicaps or less well fancied runners in the better races.

Still, I've been saying for at least 10 years now that no jockey since Piggott rides Epsom better than Dettori.
 
I think the Epsom track is difficult to ride and takes a bit of knowing. I agree I was comparing apples to onions but I was hoping that the up and comer had had some success there. Personal opinion but I think the old man is riding very well since we've been back racing.

It would have been nice for Marquand to keep the ride but the trainer has to do what he thinks is the best for the owner. It can be a cut-throat business.
 
Marb said:
At this stage it's as open and competative a derby as I have seen.

Dettori now takes the ride on the favourite English King.

A final classic clue could be this Wednesday when Highest Ground makes his seasonal debut. He has to beat Waldkonig.

If he does manage this, at least it will look like good form. I am tempted to take a chance on Highest Ground before Wednesday for the Derby.

Odds of 25/1 really could collapse couldn't they....
Click to expand...

Is this going to run? Someone on Twitter saying it is still 16/1. They pulled a furlong clear and he murdered the 2nd.
 
General consensus seems to be that Stoute won't rush him for the Derby and go for the Dante as a bridge to Group 1 company. Hard not be really impressed with that.
 
Last edited:
Stoute ran Ulysses in the Derby before he was ready. Can see him being reluctant to do the same again, esp with the same owner.
 
Yeah very impressive, Slim. I loved the way he travelled into contention like a very good horse. This fella could be better than Ulysses.

If he comes out the race well they should let him take his chance. After all this is the Epsom Derby we are talking about. They only get one crack at it as 3 year olds.

If he is a confirmed runner he will go off single figure prices on the day. I for one will be punting him.
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
I used to hate it when Piggott got to jock off regular riders of fancied Derby horses.

I suppose this means Gosden doesn't have anything for it and Coolmore don't plan to offer him anything.
Click to expand...

He's the owner's jockey normally isn't he? Real shame for Tom, he knows the horse now and vice a versa.
 
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