G-G
Senior Jockey
This is like comparing apples and sausages: Marquand on nowhere near the calibre of horses Dettori is booked on. A lot of jockeys would have same record ish if on those type of horses.
Epsom Derby 2020
- Thread starter Marb
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This is like comparing apples and sausages: Marquand on nowhere near the calibre of horses Dettori is booked on. A lot of jockeys would have same record ish if on those type of horses.
trudij
Senior Jockey
I think the only fair comparison is to use however long TM has been going and use the first same amount of years for LD.
Still applies and oranges in my opinion, but [emoji2368]
Tom will get the chances, he’s a bloody good jockey - but no matter how professional he’s being I bet he still feels **** about it
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If he is confirmed it would be hard to see him go off bigger than 5/1 or 6/1.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I haven't seen the race but would not want to go overboard about it, just seeing the result.
The first two were tracker horses for me but obviously had the market sewn up so I left the race alone. Put a gun to my head for a selection and I'd have gone for the Stoute horse becuse Waldkonig was so disappointing last time and it's possible that he's taking his time putting it together this season on the track or I wouldn't be surprised if Gosden (and Stoute with the winner for that matter) are more focused on the second half of the 'season'. And they weren't really that far clear of a bunch of 250/1 donks.
Dettori for English King does speak volumes, I reckon, as he'll know what's happening in all the big stables but I can't get too excited about him either.
I think it might end up a very competitive - in the sense that they're all substandard and of a similar standard - so I'm happy not to have a bet for now.
The first two were tracker horses for me but obviously had the market sewn up so I left the race alone. Put a gun to my head for a selection and I'd have gone for the Stoute horse becuse Waldkonig was so disappointing last time and it's possible that he's taking his time putting it together this season on the track or I wouldn't be surprised if Gosden (and Stoute with the winner for that matter) are more focused on the second half of the 'season'. And they weren't really that far clear of a bunch of 250/1 donks.
Dettori for English King does speak volumes, I reckon, as he'll know what's happening in all the big stables but I can't get too excited about him either.
I think it might end up a very competitive - in the sense that they're all substandard and of a similar standard - so I'm happy not to have a bet for now.
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I watched the race earlier today. I can't say I was impressed by it as a Derby trial. I wonder if Waldkonig stays. He was still in control as Moore got down to business on Highest Ground but ultimately couldn't go with it. I also wonder if Waldkonig has trained on or is taking time to come to himself, for all he appears to be impressing on the gallops. Morning glory, possibly too?
There doesn't seem to be any strong vibes from either camp regarding these as potential Derby horses either.
Shame about Military March too.
archie
Senior Jockey
In a unique season it may not matter as much but classic form often works out and Vatican City showed promise at the Curragh.
walsworth
Journeyman
Kameko for me, English King is too short.
Frankel
Senior Jockey
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Trip!
Not sure he'd have the stamina, Archie, though AOB has enough entrants to call the pace tune to suit.
Imo, he'll use them to set a proper test, with Mogul the likely beneficiary.Jockey bookings should tell all.
Desert Orchid
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I had a quick look at the race on Monday. So far I'm still trying to find something worth backing.
I would worry about English King. Apparently when asked the other day if he was the best horse he'd ever trained, the trainer said no, that was Stormy Antartica, which struggles in lower class.
If Mogul was so overweight at Ascot, I can't see him being anything other than still overweight a couple of weeks later. Jason Weaver clearly had got word about Japan early last season but it didn't hit form until the second half of the season. He's talking similarly about Mogul and it looks like the horse will come good in time but maybe not in time for Saturday.
I still think O'Brien will win and the Irish Derby cemented that opinion. I'd be pretty confident he knows he's got something better than Santiago or any of the others that dominated the finish of that race for this weekend.
There was an O'Brien horse ran on into fourth or so in the Irish Guineas but its name escapes me and right now I can't be arsed to look it up
. I'll probably include it in any bets I end up having.
I would worry about English King. Apparently when asked the other day if he was the best horse he'd ever trained, the trainer said no, that was Stormy Antartica, which struggles in lower class.
If Mogul was so overweight at Ascot, I can't see him being anything other than still overweight a couple of weeks later. Jason Weaver clearly had got word about Japan early last season but it didn't hit form until the second half of the season. He's talking similarly about Mogul and it looks like the horse will come good in time but maybe not in time for Saturday.
I still think O'Brien will win and the Irish Derby cemented that opinion. I'd be pretty confident he knows he's got something better than Santiago or any of the others that dominated the finish of that race for this weekend.
There was an O'Brien horse ran on into fourth or so in the Irish Guineas but its name escapes me and right now I can't be arsed to look it up
. I'll probably include it in any bets I end up having.Colin Phillips
At the Start
Armory.
prince regent
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Armory. Goes to the French Derby
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
The Irish Derby was a Group 3 race. The non Ballydoyle runners were either future handicappers or obvious non stayers.
Mogul is interesting, he made a move when he went odds on IR at Ascot but just blew up. I can't have him on Saturday for the same reasons as you. He'll be better later in the year, just like Japan was. The other Ballydoyles don't interest me at the prices.
English King is awful short for a trainer who's never had a decent horse. I mean, his previous best was Story Antarctic and he couldn't even win a listed race at Windsor when he clearly had the best pre race form.
Kameko is a non stayer
That probably leaves an ew dutch on Pyledriver and Mohican Heights as the best option.
I've had two very rare flat bets for me, and I also backed Pyledrive and Mohican Heights ew antepost.
A similar logic to you Euro in that I pretty much don't like anything at the head of the market for varying reasons, and it looks very much like a betting race for ew punters. The pair of them are sure to stay as well when there's plenty of doubts about others ahead of them in the market.
A similar logic to you Euro in that I pretty much don't like anything at the head of the market for varying reasons, and it looks very much like a betting race for ew punters. The pair of them are sure to stay as well when there's plenty of doubts about others ahead of them in the market.
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Though Mogul and Japan are full brothers, they had very different preps for the Derby. Japan had never raced above 10f and his stamina - going into the race - was largely unknown. Mogul has, and around a stiff track (though he looked, for all the world, to run like a horse with a bigger prize in his sights). I'd also venture that mucle tone, rather than weight loss, is the way to full fitness.
With the above in mind, I've taken 7/1 mogul this morning, in anticipation of RM riding him. We'll soon know whether that assumption is right or wrong.
With the above in mind, I've taken 7/1 mogul this morning, in anticipation of RM riding him. We'll soon know whether that assumption is right or wrong.
Is Ryan Moore riding not already slightly factored in? Can he get much shorter?
While Kameko has question marks over his stamina all the rest have questions marks as to whether they’re simply good enough. So 4/1 to take that chance about a Guineas winner looks okay to me
It looks a poor year - Newcastle AW maiden + Listed race winner short priced fav :blink: - so he’ll only have to just about stay to beat these as he’s far ahead on form to date and ratings.
He’s looked like a 10f horse and the comparisons with Roaring Lion are inevitable but Roaring Lion didn’t fare too badly over the extra 2f and was only outstayed by the winner and a horse who would go on to perform admirably in the top staying race and RL would win this IMO.
Plus Kameko has Irish Derby winner Belmez in his Dam line so that offers some hope.
Vatican City looks the potential fly in the ointment but he’s got his own stamina doubts of his own.
It looks a poor year - Newcastle AW maiden + Listed race winner short priced fav :blink: - so he’ll only have to just about stay to beat these as he’s far ahead on form to date and ratings.
He’s looked like a 10f horse and the comparisons with Roaring Lion are inevitable but Roaring Lion didn’t fare too badly over the extra 2f and was only outstayed by the winner and a horse who would go on to perform admirably in the top staying race and RL would win this IMO.
Plus Kameko has Irish Derby winner Belmez in his Dam line so that offers some hope.
Vatican City looks the potential fly in the ointment but he’s got his own stamina doubts of his own.
Is it not gone to 48 hours now?
I think he will be 5/1 Saturday morning.
Me too, as the plunge comes on Frankie and one or two of the Ballydoyle horses
I hope so at least as the thieving then becomes a formality with likely 4 (even 5 ?) places available because stay or not, he'd have to fall over coming down the hill to finish out the four.
Steady on. You would never ever ever bet a dubious stayer each way. You are burning cash. Eased down is a massive player. Bet it win or pass.
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