Epsom Derby 2020

Had a quick look through this and for what its worth I thought Russian Emperor looked the most solid of Ballydoyles, Vatican city if he stays fair enough. Wouldn't touch Mogul and tbh I'd be with Euro on Pyledriver although does he need juice in the ground ? I think he probably does. He pulled very hard at Royal Ascot and finished strongly certainly capable of a lot bigger performance. Would obviously need it to get on terms with the market leaders here but its certainly in the realms of possibility if they get bit of rain. From what I've seen I'm impressed with the market leaders but I have a mate who ain't a bad judge (certainly better than I ) of whether these young ones get the trip or not and he assures me Kameko will not get home.

Bets wise, Russian Emperor for me, if we get a bit of juice in the ground I'll dutch with Pyledriver.
 
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Slim said:
Steady on. You would never ever ever bet a dubious stayer each way. You are burning cash. Eased down is a massive player. Bet it win or pass.
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In practically any other race I'd completely agree with you but 2nd or 3rd in the Derby is still a mightily valuable addition to a horse's stock, especially if he turns out to be a top class G1 performer over 10f, e.g. Roaring Lion.

And I'm confident his pace will put him clear enough of most of the average horses he'll be up against such that Murphy would literally need to pull him up rather than ease him down.

I'm struggling to think of the last time I saw a Derby runner in with a real chance 2f out be eased down and finish out of the places.

Cue somebody proves me wrong...
 
I have read this thread, (I think I started it? :)) and it made me look at the race again.

It hasn't took me that long to find the horse who has both improved for stepping up to 10F and could be better at 12F, has done this at Royal Ascot in a respectable handicap and if it comes up soft can definately run a huge race.

This horse is trained by Paul Cole and sons. He's called Highland Chief.

I have missed the prices but still keen at 16/1 or thereabouts. What's the ground forecast to be on Saturday?

If anyone like me was unsure about what to back I'd urge them to take a look at Highland Chief, especially if the rain comes.
 
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Copied and pasted from the Longshot thread:

I've had a look at the Derby ahead of the final dec stage tomorrow just to see if I can steal anything at a price.

I've taken Max Vega at 50/1.

He finished his 2yo season rated 110, higher than most of his rivals this weekend. On his return at Kempton he was shorter in the betting (100/30) than both Berlin Tango (7/1 rated 98, RPR for winning 108) and Pyledriver (40/1, 103, 104). The former improved at Ascot in finishing third to Russian Emperor, who is fancied by some on here, to an RPR of 111 and is now rated 110. Pyledriver also improved to win at Ascot and is also now rated 110.

The Beckett yard was in dreadful form at the time and I would expect significant improvement on that effort. Beckett is adamant the colt will stay 12f 'on his head' with plenty of stamina in the female line.

On the down side, it remains to be seen if he has developed well enough physically but Beckett isn't one for tilting at windmills in big races having won the Oaks with the 96-rated Talent back in the day and won the St Leger with Simple Verse more recently.

I can't help thinking he wouldn't have left Max Vega in the race for a bit of fun. With so many doubts over so many others, there has to be a chance he could progress well beyond his 110 mark, in which case he could have a squeak.
 
I’m not so sure Kameko won’t stay the trip looking at his pedigree. Kittens Joy was a rarity in that he won over 1m4f in the US as there are few races at that distance. Quite possibly as many of his progeny race over there, they don’t run over as far simply due to lack of opportunity.
I thought he was tuned to perfection for the Guineas whereas many of AOBs have been needing a run (hence my interest in Mogul) I also wasn’t sure physically he would handle Epsom whereas I thought English King looked far more likely to (I have been very wrong in the past so don’t take this as gospel!)
 
English King and Mogul have terrible draws at 1 & 2, Highland Chief not much better in 13.

Big positives for Kameko (11), Vatican City (8) and Russian Emperor (6).
 
Quite surprised that Ryan's gone for Mogul sort of dampens my enthusiasm for the others. I wouldn't mind a bet on Highland Chief, not to win the Derby but to take half the field out as he makes his challenge and then runs down the camber. Thing runs like me on my way home from the pub ...albeit a tad quicker.
 
Couldn’t resist an e/w poke on Worthily at 44.82/1 4 places in an open year. Has a mountain to climb from his debut win but looked really good there, is guaranteed to stay and stay well and has a nice draw.
 
archie said:
English King and Mogul have terrible draws at 1 & 2, Highland Chief not much better in 13.

Big positives for Kameko (11), Vatican City (8) and Russian Emperor (6).
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The 2 other Coolmores drawn close by will no doubt endeavour to ensure there's space down the inside for RM. :)
 
G-G said:
I think it looks a pretty open race. Wouldn't be surprised at all if one from top ten in the betting comes through to win it.
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I'm going to back the 11th one in the betting because you've just tempted fate :)
 
I've gone in fairly heavily on Vatican City each-way as the main bet.

He had the pace to race prominently in the Irish Guineas and was as inconvenienced as anything else in the scrimmaging two out but ran on very strongly for a clear second place. I think the Irish race might be stronger than the English one.

I have no questions about his stamina with Galileo not only a strong influence but also with Northern Dancer, Blushing Groom and Roberto in his female line.
 
Watch who's still in the top ten! My boss called me before I left the office today very fed up with office politics. Moan moan moan whinge...when is that horse of yours running again he says...months I say..it's the Derby on Saturday I say. Is it he says, any tips? Well sometime I get 'feelings' and more than often they come in based on nothing but ... who knows? So I tell him 33-1 shot each way. You're that confident he says you're saying each way? Hey you asked and that's better odds than the favourite if he wins so ......... Just getting in the car to come home, text comes through... I can't find 33-1 he says, only 25s..you know some days when you think what is the point.......I'm just leaving I'll have a look when I get home.... 2 secs later - I have found 33s he says...oh joy say I, remember my percentage. So no doubt price dropping ( !) and top 10 changing! :) I rarely , rarely bet but I am very tempted as something is niggling at me. :) Even if at 'only' 25s....
 
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No he's a good guy! too soft with some mickey takers but very put upon by higher management who take the money and do nothing for it. Of course if it doesn't come in...2 years ago, Grand National, I really fancied a particular horse but it needed to rain. He asked me a couple of weeks before, I said it has to rain, so he kept saying the name of the horse as a certainty...it has to rain I kept saying. Of course it didn't rain, horse didn't win, he ribbed me about it for weeks. I went in one day in a t shirt that said IT DIDN'T RAIN - GET OVER IT!
 
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4-1 is big enough to tempt me in to back English King

He looked top drawer sauntering all over Berkshire Rocco at Lingfield and looked perfectly at home there, so very hopeful he'll handle the track

Trap 1's not ideal (not the complete coffin box some say) but don’t think he needs to be up with the pace, so hopefully Frankie can save energy, just dropping him in and come with a late winning run. Easy game!
 
I thought I was seeing things tbh Perp, the world's gone mad !
 
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G-G said:
No he's a good guy! too soft with some mickey takers but very put upon by higher management who take the money and do nothing for it. Of course if it doesn't come in...2 years ago, Grand National, I really fancied a particular horse but it needed to rain. He asked me a couple of weeks before, I said it has to rain, so he kept saying the name of the horse as a certainty...it has to rain I kept saying. Of course it didn't rain, horse didn't win, he ribbed me about it for weeks. I went in one day in a t shirt that said IT DIDN'T RAIN - GET OVER IT!
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I have a similar story with a guy from work and every time since he asks me if I've been winning and I say no he says , Whats the matter the grass not wet enough ! ****!


Can I borrow your T-shirt ?
 
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I know the smart money usually comes lathe day but Its seriously looking like Kameko is going to go off favourite, I could of absolutely done my nuts laying that to be the case truly shocked.
 
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