Euro 2016 betting thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
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The problem with it you'd have to expect Poland to score at least 6 in the group stages, with 2 goalscoring players, maybe split 3-2 in either Lewandowski or Milik's favour (they probably can't score every single goal), then how many more games will they have for one of those players to get the 2/3 more goals that they will need to compete?

I suppose you're hoping that Milik can catch fire and get a hat-trick or 4 goals in 2 in the group stages, which is by no means impossible but that's where the 150/1 comes in. Probably is overpriced though I don't disagree.

Lewandowski is that much shorter because he scores goals in bursts like that, as we've seen several times he can get a hat trick in 10 minutes and seems to do that relatively often.
 
AliGupter said:
Lewandowski is that much shorter because he scores goals in bursts like that, as we've seen several times he can get a hat trick in 10 minutes and seems to do that relatively often.
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That would be my view as well. I doubt the price will change much so not worth a bet now but a decent price if still available in 4 weeks.
 
AliGupter said:
The problem with it you'd have to expect Poland to score at least 6 in the group stages, with 2 goalscoring players, maybe split 3-2 in either Lewandowski or Milik's favour (they probably can't score every single goal), then how many more games will they have for one of those players to get the 2/3 more goals that they will need to compete?

I suppose you're hoping that Milik can catch fire and get a hat-trick or 4 goals in 2 in the group stages, which is by no means impossible but that's where the 150/1 comes in. Probably is overpriced though I don't disagree.

Lewandowski is that much shorter because he scores goals in bursts like that, as we've seen several times he can get a hat trick in 10 minutes and seems to do that relatively often.
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You seen to assuming you know how Poland will perform. You can't just say they have to get the goals in the group games.

How many games will Poland play?

3 - 100%
4+ - 65%
5+ - 31%
6+ - 13%
7 - 4%
 
archie said:
That would be my view as well. I doubt the price will change much so not worth a bet now but a decent price if still available in 4 weeks.
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If you're referring to the 150/1 you're wrong. Its a self fulfilling prophecy. If some of us back it the price will go.
 
The one price that raised my eyebrows (in a positive way) is Ibrahimovic at 30+

Sweden have a tough group with Italy and Belgium but the carrot of Portugal or Austria in the R16 might see them get to the quarters.
 
SlimChance said:
You seen to assuming you know how Poland will perform. You can't just say they have to get the goals in the group games.

How many games will Poland play?

3 - 100%
4+ - 65%
5+ - 31%
6+ - 13%
7 - 4%
Click to expand...

Golden boot winners get the bulk of their goals in the group stages. Assuming that you need at least 5 goals to win the thing, you'll need to be scoring 3 at least in the group stages under normal circumstances. Even then you're looking at odds against for them to have more than one game to get the other (at least) 2 goals that they need.
 
AliGupter said:
Golden boot winners get the bulk of their goals in the group stages. Assuming that you need at least 5 goals to win the thing, you'll need to be scoring 3 at least in the group stages under normal circumstances. Even then you're looking at odds against for them to have more than one game to get the other (at least) 2 goals that they need.
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You must bare in mind it is an each way market. He could place with 4 goals.

How many international tournaments have you sat though where you had to throw half your assumptions out the window after two group games? These prices were set some time ago and are not revised daily. There is bound to be some erroneous prices. Its the bettors job to decipher the noise and find the value. I keep a very open mind about what can and can't win.
 
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SlimChance said:
The draw is more complicated than previous European championships. The Last 16 draw for the runners up in Groups A,B,C and F is likely to be more favorable than for the runners up of Groups D and E. There is a predictor here that you can play around with. Its easier work out why say, Austria 7/4 are so short to make the quarter final stage when looking at this tool.

Knockout phase structure

In the round of 16, UEFA have arranged the match-ups to take place as follows:[40]

Match 1: Runner-up Group A v Runner-up Group C
Match 2: Winner Group D v 3rd Place Group B/E/F
Match 3: Winner Group B v 3rd Place Group A/C/D
Match 4: Winner Group F v Runner-up Group E
Match 5: Winner Group C v 3rd Place Group A/B/F
Match 6: Winner Group E v Runner-up Group D
Match 7: Winner Group A v 3rd Place Group C/D/E
Match 8: Runner-up Group B v Runner-up Group F

The specific match-ups involving the third-placed teams depend on which four third-placed teams qualify for the round of 16
Click to expand...

Cheers for the predictor but it only allows for group games?

Anyway, this is what I came up with:




[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]Switzerland[/TD]
[TD="class: t16"][/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]Belgium[/TD]

[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]Poland[/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]Croatia[/TD]

[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]Spain[/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]Germany[/TD]

[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]Rep. Ireland[/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]Russia[/TD]

[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]England[/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]Wales[/TD]

[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]Romania[/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]Austria[/TD]

[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]Portugal[/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]France[/TD]

[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]Italy[/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]Ukraine
[/TD]


(box hasn't pasted properly - teams in first column are on one side of the draw - Switz play Poland, Spain play Ireland and winners of each play in quarter final etc)

I think Spain are a team hugely in decline, and the 3 of the obvious teams for me (Germany, France, Belgium) are all on the same side of the draw.

Hence, one can easily take the view (again, this comes back to if Hodgson watched some games during the season and came to the conclusion England would be much better without Rooney) that England are huge value, and potentially Italy, too.

As much as I like a lot of Germany's players, to potentially have to beat Russia, Belgium and France just to get to the final is tough going?
 
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Hamm said:
Cheers for the predictor but it only allows for group games?

Anyway, this is what I came up with:




[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]Switzerland[/TD]
[TD="class: t16"][/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]Belgium[/TD]

[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]Poland[/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]Croatia[/TD]

[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]Spain[/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]Germany[/TD]

[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]Rep. Ireland[/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]Russia[/TD]

[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]England[/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]Wales[/TD]

[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]Romania[/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]Austria[/TD]

[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]Portugal[/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]France[/TD]

[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]Italy[/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]Ukraine[/TD]


(box hasn't pasted properly - teams in first column are on one side of the draw - Switz play Poland, Spain play Ireland and winners of each play in quarter final etc)

I think Spain are a team hugely in decline, and the 3 of the obvious teams for me (Germany, France, Belgium) are all on the same side of the draw.

Hence, one can easily take the view (again, this comes back to if Hodgson watched some games during the season and came to the conclusion England would be much better without Rooney) that England are huge value, and potentially Italy, too.

As much as I like a lot of Germany's players, to potentially have to beat Russia, Belgium and France just to get to the final is tough going?
Click to expand...

Bizarre. I was only thinking about you yesterday, and wondering where you had gotten to. Good to see you back.
 
Hamm said:
Cheers for the predictor but it only allows for group games?

Anyway, this is what I came up with:




[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]Switzerland[/TD]
[TD="class: t16"][/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]Belgium[/TD]

[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]Poland[/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]Croatia[/TD]

[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]Spain[/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]Germany[/TD]

[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]Rep. Ireland[/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]Russia[/TD]

[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]England[/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]Wales[/TD]

[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]Romania[/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]Austria[/TD]

[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]Portugal[/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]France[/TD]

[TD="class: rtxt f, align: right"]Italy[/TD]
[TD="class: ltxt f"]Ukraine
[/TD]


(box hasn't pasted properly - teams in first column are on one side of the draw - Switz play Poland, Spain play Ireland and winners of each play in quarter final etc)

I think Spain are a team hugely in decline, and the 3 of the obvious teams for me (Germany, France, Belgium) are all on the same side of the draw.

Hence, one can easily take the view (again, this comes back to if Hodgson watched some games during the season and came to the conclusion England would be much better without Rooney) that England are huge value, and potentially Italy, too.

As much as I like a lot of Germany's players, to potentially have to beat Russia, Belgium and France just to get to the final is tough going?
Click to expand...

You really can't make too much out of the draw because it's so easy for the bigger nations to be on either side of the draw after the group stages.
 
Of course you can. If not, one could say 'you can't make too much of team selection when determining who is value for top goalscorer etc etc'.

The value lies in seeing who may have an easier route to the final than their odds imply...

If you take the view I do that Spain are way over the hill, that really opens up potential value on the left-hand side of the draw..
 
Hamm said:
Of course you can. If not, one could say 'you can't make too much of team selection when determining who is value for top goalscorer etc etc'.

The value lies in seeing who may have an easier route to the final than their odds imply...

If you take the view I do that Spain are way over the hill, that really opens up potential value on the left-hand side of the draw..
Click to expand...

So you think this 'may have a good draw' isn't already factored into the price?
 
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No, I didn't say that - I said if you take your own view on the draw, then you may see value..

Everything you & others have already posted has been 'factored' into the prices of every market. It all depends on whether you agree with the opinion that has been 'factored' in or not that determines whether you think you have a value bet or not...
 
Surely Albania has to be the starting point for the top goalscorer discussion? Their stats from qualifying are skewed by being given a 3-0 win due to some ern, bother at the match (eventually). And it can hardly be described as the group from hell that qualified in.

Looking at their opponents, France are the obvious choice - Gignac and Greizmann stand out more for me than Giroud. I like Gignac at his current price.
 
Hamm said:
Everything you & others have already posted has been 'factored' into the prices of every market.
Click to expand...

I don't agree with that. You only need to look at the liquidity on the exchanges of the outright market compared to the Top Goalscorer market to see how mature they are. There are greater discrepancies in the prices across oddschecker on the Top Goalscorer market for the same reason. I mentioned in this post how Groups A,B,C and F look to have an edge and how this has been factored into the outright markets. You are more likely to exploit these small draw edges in other markets away from the robust outright betting.
 
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simmo said:
Surely Albania has to be the starting point for the top goalscorer discussion? Their stats from qualifying are skewed by being given a 3-0 win due to some ern, bother at the match (eventually). And it can hardly be described as the group from hell that qualified in.

Looking at their opponents, France are the obvious choice - Gignac and Greizmann stand out more for me than Giroud. I like Gignac at his current price.
Click to expand...

Andre Pierre Gignac is 50/1 for the Golden Boot but 14/1 to be French Top Goalscorer. There must be a fair chance Gigmac can feature in the front three from France. If this is the case that 14/1 looks a real mistake.
 
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simmo said:
Surely Albania has to be the starting point for the top goalscorer discussion? Their stats from qualifying are skewed by being given a 3-0 win due to some ern, bother at the match (eventually). And it can hardly be described as the group from hell that qualified in.

Looking at their opponents, France are the obvious choice - Gignac and Greizmann stand out more for me than Giroud. I like Gignac at his current price.
Click to expand...

Yeah, it's why I wish Benzema was playing. :(
 
I see northern Ireland are 5/1 to not score at all, looked a bit big to me given the draw they have. 5/1 implies they are 4/5 to not score in each game. Am I wrong??

Sent from my SM-G360F using Tapatalk
 
SlimChance said:
Andre Pierre Gignac is 50/1 for the Golden Boot but 14/1 to be French Top Goalscorer. There must be a fair chance Gigmac can feature in the front three from France. If this is the case that 14/1 looks a real mistake.
Click to expand...

If you look at the make-up of the French team, how likely is it that he'll start? He has 1 goal for France in 2014, 1 in 2015 and 1 in 2016 (so far).

The starting point is given this is a new format, how many goals do you think a player will need to 1. Be top scorer 2. Win the E/W part
 
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