Euro 2016 betting thread

Archie made a good point about David Alaba.
3 assumptions:
- austria will make it to the QF (ok, i am biased to this)
- there is no cannon fodder in the tournament so expect not many goals overall
- this will favour those players who are taking the penalty shots
in the qualifying Alaba scored 3 penalties, this was the secont most to Wayne Roony who scored 4. Alaba is also VERY good with his free kicks and long range shots, so he may earn another goal or goals in this sphere.
150/1 is way to big if available
 
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Bet365 have priced all the individual countries top goalscorer markets. There is likely to be plenty of angles in these markets. One idea is to look for countries with a low goal expectation and look at the prices of their centre halves that will come up for corners. One player I have my eye on is Hakan Calhanoglu who is 9/1 to be Turkey's top goalscorer. He is a dead ball specialist who plays as part of the front three in a 4-3-3. His free kick ability will mean he is a constant goal threat and is one to consider in the individual matches in first goalscorer and to score anytime markets.
 
SlimChance said:
Bet365 have priced all the individual countries top goalscorer markets. There is likely to be plenty of angles in these markets. One idea is to look for countries with a low goal expectation and look at the prices of their centre halves that will come up for corners. One player I have my eye on is Hakan Calhanoglu who is 9/1 to be Turkey's top goalscorer. He is a dead ball specialist who plays as part of the front three in a 4-3-3. His free kick ability will mean he is a constant goal threat and is one to consider in the individual matches in first goalscorer and to score anytime markets.
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They also have goalscorer "match bets". Top one is Martial (8/13) V Rooney (6/5). Given that Martial is not certain to start and given that Rooney takes the pens, surely Rooney is value here at 6/5
 
Think Croatia could go well, one of the strongest centre mids in the tournament with Modric and Rakitic and also Mandzukic up front. Had a play on them outright and Mandzukic as top scorer.
 
Mandzukic was pretty ineffective in qualifying. He's not massively suited to complimenting all those ball playing midfielders.
 
The RP pullout is out today. There are better bets suggested on here than in that excuse for a betting preview.
 
I've backed Milik (11/2 - Poland) and Alaba (6/1 - Austria) in the related Top Team Scorer markets, and Doubled the pair.
 
SlimChance said:
Bet365 have priced all the individual countries top goalscorer markets. There is likely to be plenty of angles in these markets. One idea is to look for countries with a low goal expectation and look at the prices of their centre halves that will come up for corners. One player I have my eye on is Hakan Calhanoglu who is 9/1 to be Turkey's top goalscorer. He is a dead ball specialist who plays as part of the front three in a 4-3-3. His free kick ability will mean he is a constant goal threat and is one to consider in the individual matches in first goalscorer and to score anytime markets.
Click to expand...

Albania have a low goal expectation. One goal should be enough to get a dead heat payment and could well win outright. A chance should be taken at 40/1 with Ladbrokes on Mërgim Mavraj to be Albanian top goalscorer. The German born defender will be a big threat at set pieces.

My advice is to also have a small double on the 40/1 with my other fancy Hakan Calhanoglu to be Top Turkish Goalscorer.
 
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SlimChance said:
Albania have a low goal expectation. One goal should be enough to get a dead heat payment and could well win outright. A chance should be taken at 40/1 with Ladbrokes on Mërgim Mavraj to be Albanian top goalscorer. The German born defender will be a big threat at set pieces.
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Just checked and Lads are now 20/1. Hills and Betfred are 40/1.
 
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Been doing some research. I might hark back to 2010 and just lay the **** out of the Germans. They look horrible at present.
 
After Albania, Hungary have the lowest goal expectation in the competition according to the markets. They are given around a 60% chance of scoring 2 or less goals. Bernd Storck will deploy a 4-1-4-1 formation with a 4 players vying for the lone striker role. This is likely to land to Ádám Szalai who has not scored an international goal since October 2014. It's also important to note that the manager likes to pull the lone striker around the hour mark and given he was three other options its hard to make a case for backing any of the frontmen. At the moment I am very much tempted by the 7/1 for No Goalscorer and also by the 9/1 for their captain Balazs Dzsudzsak who has been a prolific midfield goalscorer all his career. He is guaranteed to start all 3 group games and will be on free kick duty. He makes far more appeal than playing roulette with one of their strikers.

Recommended bet:

Hungary Top Goalscorer
Dutch No Goalscorer 7/1 & Balazs Dzsudzsak 9/1
 
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My there suggestions for individual country top goalscorers have all shortened up in the betting. You don't need to know anything about football to find a good price.
 
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I've backed England and Belgium. Probably should be more adventurous like DO but with Germany and France looking way too short I thought I'd throw some money on a couple of mid priced nations.
 
SlimChance said:
Robert Lewandowski is 16/1 but the other Polish striker Arkadiusz Milik is nearly ten times his price. Lewandowski had more attempts in the qualifying games and this is likely to be replicated in the group games but are they that far apart? Lets look at their Euro 2016 qualifying stats.

Player
Minutes Played
Attempts
Goals
SR %
Robert Lewandowski
876
42
13
30.95%
Arkadiusz Milik
745
27
6
22.22%


Arkadiusz Milik 150/1 hit the woodwork on two occasions in the qualifiers. Here is what the comparison would have looked like had those two shots rebounded in rather than out.

Player
Minutes Played
Attempts
Goals
SR %
Robert Lewandowski
876
42
13
30.95%
Arkadiusz Milik
745
27
8
29.63%

Should one player be 16/1 and the other players150/1? If the market thinks that Lewandowski is third favuorite for the market based on their opponents and likely amount of games than perhaps the 150/1 should be closer to 50/1.

If anyone sees a Top Poland Goalscorer market than please post a link as he is likely to undervalued in that market too.
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100/1 now hanging by a thread. Plenty of reputable firms now at 50/1.
 
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one bet i like and have backed a fair bit on is the 10/1 about no liverpool goalscorer in the top goalscorer from a particular club market (skybet)

the big scorers they have are sturridge and benteke and to a lesser extent origi. none of these are pencilled in to start.

behind them you have fodder like lallana, milner, joe allen and skrtel. none of them big goalscorers and also not sure lallana starts.
 
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