Fiscal Compact Treaty

Your voting intention on the Treaty Referendum

  • Yes

    Votes: 6 66.7%

  • No

    Votes: 3 33.3%
  • Total voters
    9
  • Poll closed .
icebreaker

icebreaker

At the Start
Joined
Jun 12, 2005
Messages
2,957
Would any of you ROI forum members kindly consider taking this poll, please?
I have already made a canvass of 100 people on this issue, but I fear the results of that may be skewed due to the demographic of the sample taken -- public house habitues.
I would therefore be grateful for your participation to give a bit of balance for this betting-related project I have undertaken.

It is a straightforward "Yes" or "No" poll. You will notice that there is not a "Don't Know" option; even if you are only very slightly leaning towards one determination at the moment, then, please enter your vote for that particular choice. This is just to gain a "snapshot" of your current voting intentions regarding the forthcoming Referendum on May 31st.

The poll is timed to close in four days.
I would ask that nobody would make any reply comment for the moment as that may influence other "yet-to-vote" forum members. (I'm sure there will be plenty of opportunity to discuss the merits and demerits of the Treaty post-poll.) :)
Thank you in advance for your participation.
 
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Does it matter if I'm english.

(I've already assumed independance from those money sucking north-of-the-border tribes):rolleyes:

What treaty referendum?

MR2
 
montyracing2 said:
Does it matter if I'm english.
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:lol:

Only if you make it so, Monty ! :)
(Although in this specific instance it might be a bit pointless taking part as the May 31st referendum is an exclusively Irish exercise.
What treaty referendum?
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The European Union Fiscal Treaty is designed to be a mechanism to limit budget deficits and public debt among the 17 members of the euro zone.
The Irish Attorney General has determined that the Treaty must be passed by public referendum before it can be ratified by the Irish government
 
Buggr em, leave the German's all your debt, let bygones be bygones and come back to us. The EU has led you to poverty. You know it makes sense. If you're quick I'm sure we can re-route the olympic torch through Dubbers.

MR2
 
Thanks, but no thanks.

By the way, the Olympic torch is already being routed through Dublin.
 
better than not being able to afford anything at all isnt it?

and probably not true anyway
 
I voted No because I've taken the 15/8. Like the Eurocrats I 'm only interested what's good for number one.. ME!
 
the uk can borrow with ease. it has very low bond yields and frankly no one needs to look no further than those whose full time employment and livelihoods depend on that judgement to understand the situation

sorry if that doesnt fit in with what some would want to believe for reasons other than pure finance, but thats pretty well end of
 
clivex said:
the uk can borrow with ease. it has very low bond yields
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This is true, but it's interesting that some countries with much lower debt than the US and UK are getting crucified by the so-called markets at the moment

and frankly no one needs to look no further than those whose full time employment and livelihoods depend on that judgement to understand the situation

sorry if that doesnt fit in with what some would want to believe for reasons other than pure finance, but thats pretty well end of
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Is that you trying to tell us you and the markets know best, and that's all we need to know? :lol:
 
Yes why not. And you know better than the thousands of economists and traders who make up the international bond market?

You think they havent seen and analysed every stat and ratio? You think that if there was a rick in the market that none of them would have picked it up?
 
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Clive, that makes no sense. Are you also saying the markets knew best in 2008?
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It makes perfect sense. Bond markets are based government borrowing and prospects, the detail of which is pretty fully exposed (in western states anyway) and has to be trustworthy for the simple sake of credibility. it is a world away from CDS's

The accepted benchmark for real difficulties servicing the debt is generally accepted to be a bond yeild of 7%. Ireland is currently over 8%

It wont go down well on here, but the the Uk is rightly seen as a decent prospect. Not weighed down by the falied euro, tackling its debt in a mature fashion (although arguably too rigorously and the US model is illustrative) and possibly also seen as being in a very strong position with the city which is increasingly seen, for a whole host of reasons, as the worlds global centre.
 
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A single currency only stands a chance of working if member states' fiscal policies are coordinated to an extent. The euro zone wouldn't be in this state if governments had stuck to the original Stability & Growth Pact, which set out rules on budget deficits.

The euro zone faces a choice - closer fiscal union or breakup. For many members, Ireland included, breakup seems the better option. A return to its own currency would allow a substantial devaluation to restore competitiveness, and reduce the need for austerity. The fiscal compact is necessary for the survival of the euro - but do you want it to survive?
 
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Thats spot on benny but the one big issue for failed economies coming out of the euro is that businesses and banks would bé brought down overnight given that their borrowing would bé in the euro currency
 
Exports from Ireland are running at record levels, Benny, there is no competitiveness issue.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1221/exports.html

Devaluation would add to the cost of raw materials, including oil, and slow growth further.

Clive, good luck following the gospel according to the high priests of the City. If you think they hold a monopoly on wisdom, even after 2008, there can be no convincing you.

I wasn't trying to say the UK was in trouble, by the way, merely that it's deficit and debt is a lot higher than most people think. Things could get uncomfortable though if the economy stalls.
 
Its deficit and debt is higher than the bond markets think then? You think they never look at this stuff?

Bonds are straightforward and nothing like CDS's etc

As for the "monopoly" on wisdom, it shouldnt need explaining that the markets are fully international and reflect the worldwide opinion of every single interested party, whether they are investors or economists advising the same. So who else should we listen to then?
 
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Grey said:
Exports from Ireland are running at record levels, Benny, there is no competitiveness issue.
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This is an over-simplification, I believe. Forfás conducted a Competitiveness Scorecard for 2011. In it, Ireland's price level was 15th out of 17 countries in the comparisons. For non-pay costs, Ireland achieved a green rating in just one of the 14 categories. With factors such as industrial construction costs weighing down on our competitiveness. Ireland's labour costs are over 20% higher than the Euro 13 and OECD 28 averages. Driven by a net wage which is 3rd highest in the OECD 28.

Mobile and internet costs are also higher than average (OECD and Euro area).

Let's be honest. Ireland's competitiveness is skewed heavily by a favourable corporate tax regime.
 
clivex said:
Its deficit and debt is higher than the bond markets think then? You think they never look at this stuff?

Bonds are straightforward and nothing like CDS's etc

As for the "monopoly" on wisdom, it shouldnt need explaining that the markets are fully international and reflect the worldwide opinion of every single interested party, whether they are investors or economists advising the same. So who else should we listen to then?
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Although I actually agree with most of what Clive says but the bolded bit above is bollocks.

CDS spreads are very heavily correlated with bond yields. The factors driving the difference between the two are driven by technical factors on underlying interest rates and by different levels of availability of funding, liquidity and cheapest to deliver considerations on the bonds.

Give me a period in time when sovereign bond yields have moved in a significantly different way to CDS spreads.
 
Bar the Bull said:
This is an over-simplification, I believe.

Let's be honest. Ireland's competitiveness is skewed heavily by a favourable corporate tax regime.
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Nobody's denying the importance of the tax regime. Nevertheless in spite of adverse economic circumstances exports are flying.
 
What i mean BTB is that CDS's were not understood or in any way controlled by too many of those trading them whereas Bonds are fairly straightforward. Are we likely to see a bond market bring down the system? Unless a government is producing figures that are complete rubbish, which would be suicidal in itself (a/la Greece) then i cant see how. Surely they are much the same a buying shares or loan notes in blue chips ? Not much is going to escape most serious investors eyes
 
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