For & Against

For Kauto

Every chance he will run better than last year (when he never really got going IMO) and the finest chaser since Desert Orchid will be well placed to exploit any flaws in the great Denman's comeback. 3/1... not bad is it?

Not sure i would be totally against Tatenan now hes drifted to a nice price. But Calgary looks a champ in the making to me

Binocular could be the finest hurdler weve seen in years. Very much for but is now unbackable

Against

Perhaps Neptune in the GC. I would want more than 9's. Kasbah Bliss too. im not sure that last years race was all that and the new kid on the on teh block is very impressive

Im not sure that at present prices anything stands out but there will be at least one hype horse that will have silly momentum behind it up until the day....and that will be the one to take on
 
SteveM said:
I took the 5s on VPU for the Ryanair with Hills a few days ago and that's gone now. All it will take is for one or two of his main rivals to be diverted to alternative engagements for his price to contract sharply.

In these cases it is best to "average out" - i.e. back him both now (for part of your stake) and later.

Building up such exposures in the ante-post market is the only way I'm able to make decent returns from the Festival.
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If something were to prevent MM running in the Champion Chase - might VPU yet be diverted ?
 
clivex said:
For Kauto

Every chance he will run better than last year (when he never really got going IMO) and the finest chaser since Desert Orchid will be well placed to exploit any flaws in the great Denman's comeback. 3/1... not bad is it?

Not sure i would be totally against Tatenan now hes drifted to a nice price. But Calgary looks a champ in the making to me

Binocular could be the finest hurdler weve seen in years. Very much for but is now unbackable

Against

Perhaps Neptune in the GC. I would want more than 9's. Kasbah Bliss too. im not sure that last years race was all that and the new kid on the on teh block is very impressive

Im not sure that at present prices anything stands out but there will be at least one hype horse that will have silly momentum behind it up until the day....and that will be the one to take on
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I think your right Clive with calgary bay i like a horse that will stay further than the trip for the arkle, tidal bay and vpu has won me a nice pot the last 2 years altho i wouldnt be against free world yet. And as you said binocular could be very special i will probbly do a double with master minded.
 
Yes Big Flow. Another consideration. I really liked the way he jumped and i can just see him taking the last with a flourish and battling up the hill.
 
Cheltenham races are always hotly contested and very little goes off at odds on, on the day

I only had to lose money one year (last year!) being too clever with ante-post bets to learn never to do it again. what you could win 3/4/5 years ago you can't win now, as all the top chances are very short from a long way out - 10 months in advance! It's a mugs' game now, in a way it wasn't a few years ago (even 3 yrs ago).

I really don't think the good horses will be any shorter, or not much, when we KNOW which races they are running in - so by all means discuss, but keep your powder dry (is my advice to myself... not that I've entirely taken it!)
 
Binocular (11/8)
Master Minded (2/5)
Voy Por Ustedes (9/2)
Punchestowns (9/4)
Denman (2/1)

How many win?
 
clivex said:
Yes Big Flow. Another consideration. I really liked the way he jumped and i can just see him taking the last with a flourish and battling up the hill.
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I know Henrietta Knight reckons he's better going left-handed, but he just looked to me like he didn't really fancy it today. Not the first time either.
 
Oh I don't know trackside, today I think it just took him a while to pull himself together so he could start to rally - which he was, and closing the gap oh-so-slowly towards the line.
 
I think Master Minded is far more likely to win his race than all the others. The likes of Punchestowns still has plenty of question marks over him, Denman has a horse like Kauto in against him, VPU is a lovely horse but is beatable in what looks a very strong race while Binocular has to come up that hill.
 
You'll get 177/1+ on the acca (assuming all those best odds were available at the same place).
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Well if Martin doesn't want to, I will:

0: 14/1
1: 5/2
2: 6/4
3: 3/1
4: 15/1
5: 166/1

(only 7% overround :p)
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I asked for a good reason, I tried to price it up myself and failed! I could not get my head around it. I know it's simple probability but it was not coming to me so I gave up.
 
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