For & Against

I'd try but given the risk of injury etc. you'd want to be big enough on 4 and 5 anyway on the basis that at least one of those has a very good chance of being beat pre-Festival and drifting to a 7/1 chance or so on his own.
 
I was thinking you could do a pretty simple formula on excel to roughly work out the prices. I was updating another file so I gave up.
 
Yeah, it's basically just a case of figuring out all the possible combinations of outcomes and adding the appropriate ones together.
 
The laws of probability would suggest its 3.12% that all five win if you accept that there are two results possible (win or loss). It's no different therefore to a coin toss
 
Which is why you wouldn't use pure probability. But then a market price isn't necessarily probability either, but you'd probably accept that it's a reflection on perceived likelihood (or weight of liability/ money etc)

At the risk of taking it off on a tangent, we've used the theory with a degree of success in structuring a pool team this sason with the objective of getting our better players placed in the games that were most likely to be critical. We came out with sequence that went something like

2, 4, 6, 1, 3, 5
 
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If you want more detail:

Based on the odds given, the chance of each horse winning and, therefore, losing is:

Code: 
[b]Horse		Odds	Win	Loss[/b]
Binocular	11/8	0.42	0.58
Master Minded	2/5	0.71	0.29
Voy Por Ustedes	9/2	0.18	0.82
Punchestowns	9/4	0.31	0.69
Denman		2/1	0.33	0.67

5 winners is easy - multiply all the numbers in the Win column: 0.0056 = ~177/1

Similarly, for 0 winners multiply all the numbers in the Loss column: 0.0625 = ~15/1

There's 5 ways you can have 1 winner. For each one, multiply the winner's win chance with all of the loser's loss chances and add the 5 results together:

Code: 
0.42 * 0.29 * 0.82 * 0.69 * 0.67
+
0.58 * 0.71 * 0.82 * 0.69 * 0.67
+
0.58 * 0.29 * 0.18 * 0.69 * 0.67
+
0.58 * 0.29 * 0.82 * 0.31 * 0.67
+
0.58 * 0.29 * 0.82 * 0.69 * 0.33

which comes out as 0.2745 or ~ 2.6/1

Similar process is used for 2 and 3 winners (each has 10 combinations) and 4 winners (5 combinations again).

Final numbers are

Code: 
[b]Wnrs	Chance	Odds (to 1)[/b]
0	0.0625	15.0
1	0.2745	2.6
2	0.3757	1.7
3	0.2227	3.5
4	0.0590	15.9
5	0.0056	177.3
 
For:Petit Robin each way in the Champion Chase at 20s.Kauto Star at 3s.

Against : Binocular and Cousin Vinny (place lay).
 
Thanks Gareth. So to 110% a bookmaker might price it up:

0 14/1

1 13/8

2 7/4

3 7/2

4 14/1

5 175/1
 
Gearoid said:
Thanks Gareth. So to 110% a bookmaker might price it up:

0 14/1

1 13/8

2 7/4

3 7/2

4 14/1

5 175/1
Click to expand...


Not quite.

Gareth's maths was sound. However, he forgot to factor in the bookmaker's margin. Although, for example, 9/2 is available for Voy Por Ustedes, the actual "win/lose" percentages are more like 15/85. It doesn't make a massive difference, but it makes his prices for "0" and "1" a bit toppy (I make "0" about an 8% chance and "1" is 31%).

So, Geraoid, your 14/1 is a smidge too big.
 
It was just a manual mistake when I put it into excel, that's why I pushed the others out a tad. I presume the 85/15 VPU is because the 9/2 factors in each way. Cheers anyway lads. When in doubt, ask.


.
 
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I know that but all the prices used to derive the Total wins were bookmaker’s prices.
 
...and that's why they were (slightly) wrong.

If you are deriving prices for markets like this, you need to use the actual percentage chance of something happening/not happening (not bookmaker prices).

GF used bookie prices - that's why his price for the 5 things not to happen was too big.

Geddit now?
 
Hamm said:
Galileo,
I agree with you he's a got a great chance in the race, but why did Mullins run him over an inadequate distance at Xmas and has now entered him for the Irish Arkle?
Click to expand...

Given the likely ground conditions, it would not surprise me to see Cooldine run again in the Arkle on Sunday.
 
Ardross said:
If something were to prevent MM running in the Champion Chase - might VPU yet be diverted ?
Click to expand...


Yes the trainer has said as much... i.e. VPU is only in the Champion Chase in case something happens to Master Minded. However, It's a good bet that VPU will run in the Ryanair as MM will be receiving five-star attention to get him to the main event.
 
I hate to be the one to point it out to you Steve - plenty of horses receive five-star attention on a daily basis but it doesn't magically prevent injury!
 
If Hurricane Fly gets confirmed for the Supreme Novices...what price will he shorten to? There have been much ropier Irish favourites for this event much shorter at this stage that Hurricane Fly.
 
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