For & Against

I'm so misunderstood. :innocent: I wasn't being grumpy, I was just passing an opinion.

I don't have any choices to state at the moment as I don't have sufficient information to make them with. :p
 
simmo said:
I'm so misunderstood. :innocent: I wasn't being grumpy, I was just passing an opinion.

I don't have any choices to state at the moment as I don't have sufficient information to make them with. :p
Click to expand...


You know something, don't you, and you won't tell !!:mad: I'll be watching :ninja::)
 
For. Binocular, noland, hurricane fly, cooldine and pride of dulcote

each ways wicheta lineman in the national hunt
big zeb champ chase
fair along world hurdle
bensalem albert bartlett
 
simmo said:
I know that I know nothing. (in a Socrates sense, rather than a Manuel sense)
Click to expand...

Wichita Lineman looks to me like the perfect horse for the Scotish National and he might get a decent weight based on what so far has been an uninspriring set of novice chase efforts (based on the book). I hope they don't go to Cheltenham with him.

Chef Dan George strikes me as a horse that could go very close in the NH chase and hopefully he will get there without winning a race and get a betterr racing weight. I thought that Minella Four Silver could be a lively outsider for this as well, but I have yet to review his last effort.

I wanted Fair Along to go for the WH Handicap chase after his season hurdling. There was never anything wrong with his fencing and he looks revitalised this year. He would have been a really got bet off a nice weight, but it looks like the option of getting spanked by Punchestown has proved too hard to resist!

Juveigneur should take plenty of beating in the Foxhunters.

All these are said bearing in mind that no conclusions have been formed and there is practically no ante post market open, so having firm opinions does not really matter at this stage.
 
All these are said bearing in mind that no conclusions have been formed and there is practically no ante post market open, so having firm opinions does not really matter at this stage.
Click to expand...


Ante-post markets have been available on most Festival races for some time, as you must be aware?

Usually the prices I take at this stage make the differences between winning and losing. Those bets stuck in the heat of the action tend to pan out about even.
 
SteveM said:
Ante-post markets have been available on most Festival races for some time, as you must be aware?

Usually the prices I take at this stage make the differences between winning and losing. Those bets stuck in the heat of the action tend to pan out about even.
Click to expand...

I am referring to a proper ante post market on the races that I have mentioned. I have had bets in other races where there are ante post markets but the 3 I am talking about above are not decent markets yet.

Betfair has a market for the Foxhunters (just opened and ridiculous prices and liquidity). I have not seen another as of yet.

Betfair also have a market for the 4m which is also shit and has little liquidity. I would not have minded laying the lunatics that backed Big Fella Thanks for the race at around 6/1 though!!!

The market for the WH chase is not open yet, the weights are not out so there is little can be done.
 
By the looks of things i'm going to be a little controversial, maybe more heart than head but;

For: Kauto Star (hopefully gets good ground, never travelled a yard last year), Binocular, L'Ami in the Cross Country.
 
For: Binocular (backed him at 14s last year). Also Star De Mohaison at 33s in the Gold Cup. Might be a bit of sentiment here but he's still lightly raced and horses running in the race for the first time have a good record.

Against: Tatenen. He looks like he has some filling out to do, perhaps more so than others his age. Not the type I like for an Arkle.
 
For: Hurricane Fly (never been this certain since Dorans Pride won his Stayers)

Against: Kasbah Bliss (last years Stayers form isn't worth a sook, I couldn't give a toss about runs in mincing Flat company, and his jockey is like being a man short - no pun intended)
 
I am in the same camp as you GH. Hurricane fly is a go the bank job. I'd prefer he rain in the Supreme.
 
Strong fancies are Hurricane Fly and Voy Por Ustedes, but I don't know whether the latter's price (9/2 at present) will be any shorter on the day than it already is. H Fly is joint favourite at present with stablemate Cousin Vinny, whom he has already beaten and who mightn't run in this race anyway. His price will surely drop between now and March.

I'm not sure whether to back Voy Por now or later.

I have my eye on Megans Joy as a possibility for the Mare's Hurdle. She needs fast ground, which presumably explains why we haven't seen her of late. She has a touch of class and could make her present odds (33/1 on Betfair) look silly.

I'll stick my neck out and say that at the very least Binocular is much too short. I also agree with those opposing Tatenen.

Which reminds me, Follow The Plan and Araldur are two gutsy horses in the Arkle who should do well tackling the hill. FTP is likely to contract in price if he goes well in the Irish version on Sunday week.
 
I hope Hurricane Fly goes for the Supreme - as Diamond Harry looks rather a large stumbling block in the Ballymore- the horse already has posted ratings more than up to winning it - and on the bit .
 
Grey said:
Strong fancies are Hurricane Fly and Voy Por Ustedes, but I don't know whether the latter's price (9/2 at present) will be any shorter on the day than it already is.

I'm not sure whether to back Voy Por now or later.
Click to expand...

I took the 5s on VPU for the Ryanair with Hills a few days ago and that's gone now. All it will take is for one or two of his main rivals to be diverted to alternative engagements for his price to contract sharply.

In these cases it is best to "average out" - i.e. back him both now (for part of your stake) and later.

Building up such exposures in the ante-post market is the only way I'm able to make decent returns from the Festival.
 
Galileo said:
At Cheltenham at this stage...

For...

Cooldine in the SunAlliance Chase....horse is made for the test of this race and I think he will go off favourite on the day.
Click to expand...

Galileo,
I agree with you he's a got a great chance in the race, but why did Mullins run him over an inadequate distance at Xmas and has now entered him for the Irish Arkle?
 
Hamm said:
Galileo,
I agree with you he's a got a great chance in the race, but why did Mullins run him over an inadequate distance at Xmas and has now entered him for the Irish Arkle?
Click to expand...

He won't be going for the Arkle at Cheltenham and I think the trainer is just keen to not overly tax him over a trip just yet. The Moriarty will be an obvious race for him. I think Ruby will ride him over the Nicholls horse and if he does he will go off favourite.
 
SteveM said:
I took the 5s on VPU for the Ryanair with Hills a few days ago and that's gone now. All it will take is for one or two of his main rivals to be diverted to alternative engagements for his price to contract sharply.

In these cases it is best to "average out" - i.e. back him both now (for part of your stake) and later.

Building up such exposures in the ante-post market is the only way I'm able to make decent returns from the Festival.
Click to expand...

I am exactly the same..Didn't know whether to back VPE now or wait, will heed your advice SteveM and enter the fray this evening....Will ask for 5's on Betfair:cool:
 
Back
Top