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i'd argue against those AW stats Slim..the AW on all courses now has more shorties in maidens than ever before..the AW in those earlier years was more open

have you got all turf handicap % for those periods
 
EC1 said:
i'd argue against those AW stats Slim..the AW on all courses now has more shorties in maidens than ever before..the AW in those earlier years was more open

have you got all turf handicap % for those periods
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I'm sorry but you can't pick holes in 5 year blocks of data.
 
Whatabout the percentages of winning favourites based on price variations, number of runners, grade, type of handcap, distance, etc, etc. you're being too simplistic.
 
Maruco said:
Whatabout the percentages of winning favourites based on price variations, number of runners, grade, type of handcap, distance, etc, etc. you're being too simplistic.
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The point I was trying to prove was that the market is more accurate in 2016 than in 2001 and therefore sends the correct horse off favourite more often. All other variables are irrelevant bar maybe field sizes.
 
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Sorry Slim my head was going elsewhere with it. I did a lot of work on this a while ago and my head was back in to it.

I had a computer crash on me that I hadn't backed up a while ago and lost a load of work on exactly this and the favourite winning stats change massively when you apply filters.
 
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SlimChance said:
I'm sorry but you can't pick holes in 5 year blocks of data.
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i can if one set has a load of newmarket shorties in that the other set hasn't..the increase in large stable maiden runners at all courses has grown consideably..you know that well

you haven't got turf handicap ones have you?
 
EC1 said:
i can if one set has a load of newmarket shorties in that the other set hasn't..the increase in large stable maiden runners at all courses has grown consideably..you know that well

you haven't got turf handicap ones have you?
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It won't let me filter down to handicaps but I've no doubt the results will be similar.
 
SlimChance said:
As soon as jockey bookings and final fields are known the midweek prices can be put in the bin. Its pretty basic stuff. The closer we get to the race the more information there is to factor into the price.
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This is where you can get an edge, if there's betting on a race ahead of time.

If you are 'serious' about your racing, you can generally predict 90% of jockey arrangements in advance, and the 10% you can't, probably aren't relevant, as they will be riding the rags. The same pretty-much applies to the final runners, if you have an appreciation of how each yard campaigns their horses. Even the ground is predictable to a degree.

The problem is liquidity. Even if you get on at the right price midweek, you might not get as much on as you want/need, which impairs any edge you had gained through your research.
 
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can you just do all turf races then?

forget the AW..thats evovled as we all know..better horses in maidens that folk know are good and are made fav..Derby runners..placer etc
 
EC1 said:
can you just do all turf races then?

forget the AW..thats evovled as we all know..better horses in maidens that folk know are good and are made fav..Derby runners..placer etc
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I'll get the full stats tomorrow but you won't like the results.
 
Maruco said:
It's the analysis of percentages to prices that's critical and that's why multiples give an edge. I had the stats but I can't find where they're saved. When I turn them up I'll post them.
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Precisely, and there's another angle too, the number of horses you used to see at 10/1+ that should have been half the price. You don't get as many 'wronguns' as you used to (I blame the credit crunch!)

There is another indicator. The RP have always had naps tables, and part of this were the ubiquitos 'top trainer' 'top jockey' and 'SP fav' . For years they occupied the bottom quarter. Then about 10 years ago the SP fav started to break out, I think it finished third one year, and might have won a few years later. Many more horses were being corretcly priced up and sent off as worthy favs. Well the industry has to adapt and slash the price
 
Warbler said:
Precisely, and there's another angle too, the number of horses you used to see at 10/1+ that should have been half the price. You don't get as many 'wronguns' as you used to (I blame the credit crunch!)

There is another indicator. The RP have always had naps tables, and part of this were the ubiquitos 'top trainer' 'top jockey' and 'SP fav' . For years they occupied the bottom quarter. Then about 10 years ago the SP fav started to break out, I think it finished third one year, and might have won a few years later. Many more horses were being corretcly priced up and sent off as worthy favs. Well the industry has to adapt and slash the price
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Those corrections are the off of the race though and not necessarily through the whole cycle of the market.
 
i can access 5 courses on flatstats..these are the results for the 5 courses..all handicap races

Ascot 2006-2011 = 20.7%
Ascot 2012-2015 = 24.8%

Ayr 2006-2011 = 24.5%
Ayr 2012-2015 = 23.9%

Bath 2006-2011 = 29.1%
Bath 2012-2015 = 27.9%

Beverley 2006-2011 = 27.5%
Beverley 2012-2015 = 28.7%

Brighton 2006-2011 = 29.3%
Brighton 2012-2015 = 29.5%

Average 2006-2011 = 26.2%
Average 2012-2015 = 26.9%

hardly an earth shattering improvement there

thats a lot of races there as well
 
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from that site..these are all fav's..flat and jumps

1992 37%
1993 36%
1994 35%
1995 36%
1996 35%
1997 35%
1998 35%
1999 35%
2000 35%
2001 33%
2002 34%
2003 36%
2004 32%
2005 31%
2006 34%
2007 34%
2008 33%
2009 34%
2010 34%
2011 34%
2012 34%
2013 35%
2014 36%
2015 35%

<colgroup><col width="86"><col width="86"></colgroup> <tbody>
[TD="width: 86"]1991 [/TD]
[TD="width: 86"]37%[/TD]

</tbody>
 
If you want to get an edge with yoru speed figures EC, then don't waste your time with the UK

Just about all the literature is written by Americans in the English language. Because racing is so unpopular, and the dark art of speed figures an even smaller minority, there is no demand for print runs in the French language (plus French people can't read, which is a well known fact :blink:).

There are a lot more UK and Irish jockeys riding in France on Sunday's now, and more trainers have finally realised that rather than moaning about UK prize money with their ever sense of entitlement, they could hop across the channel instead. The consequence is that more French races are being run at a truer pace than stereotypical myth would have you believe

The answer is simple. Get yourself a caravan and go and spend August on the coast at Deauville. A dedicated speed rater could enjoy an edge in the French pools not a thousand miles removed that enjoyed by pioneers like Beyer before his methods were widely copied and his figures published
 
1992 34%
1993 34%
1994 32%
1995 34%
1996 33%
1997 32%
1998 32%
1999 33%
2000 33%
2001 32%
2002 32%
2003 34%
2004 31%
2005 30%
2006 32%
2007 33%
2008 33%
2009 33%
2010 33%
2011 33%
2012 33%
2013 34%
2014 35%
2015 33%

<colgroup><col width="86"><col width="86"></colgroup> <tbody>
[TD="width: 86"]all flat races



1991
[/TD]
[TD="width: 86"]



33%
[/TD]

</tbody>
 
all NH races

1992 39%
1993 38%
1994 38%
1995 37%
1996 39%
1997 39%
1998 38%
1999 39%
2000 37%
2001 35%
2002 37%
2003 38%
2004 35%
2005 32%
2006 38%
2007 35%
2008 33%
2009 36%
2010 35%
2011 37%
2012 36%
2013 37%
2014 37%
2015 37%

<colgroup><col width="86"><col width="86"></colgroup> <tbody>
[TD="width: 86"]1991 [/TD]
[TD="width: 86"]41%[/TD]

</tbody>
 
Warbler said:
If you want to get an edge with yoru speed figures EC, then don't waste your time with the UK

Just about all the literature is written by Americans in the English language. Because racing is so unpopular, and the dark art of speed figures an even smaller minority, there is no demand for print runs in the French language (plus French people can't read, which is a well known fact :blink:).

There are a lot more UK and Irish jockeys riding in France on Sunday's now, and more trainers have finally realised that rather than moaning about UK prize money with their ever sense of entitlement, they could hop across the channel instead. The consequence is that more French races are being run at a truer pace than stereotypical myth would have you believe

The answer is simple. Get yourself a caravan and go and spend August on the coast at Deauville. A dedicated speed rater could enjoy an edge in the French pools not a thousand miles removed that enjoyed by pioneers like Beyer before his methods were widely copied and his figures published
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thanks for that advice Warbler..i'll think it through
 
EC1 said:
i can access 5 courses on flatstats..these are the results for the 5 courses..all handicap races

Ascot 2006-2011 = 20.7%
Ascot 2012-2015 = 24.8%

Ayr 2006-2011 = 24.5%
Ayr 2012-2015 = 23.9%

Bath 2006-2011 = 29.1%
Bath 2012-2015 = 27.9%

Beverley 2006-2011 = 27.5%
Beverley 2012-2015 = 28.7%

Brighton 2006-2011 = 29.3%
Brighton 2012-2015 = 29.5%

Average 2006-2011 = 26.2%
Average 2012-2015 = 26.9%

hardly an earth shattering improvement there

thats a lot of races there as well
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Averages won't cut it. Actual totals are:

2006-2010 2894 898 31.03%
2011-2015 3092 944 30.53%
 
have you not seen the reems of stats from AM's site??..look above Slim

do we agree then..fav's aren't winning more?

bored with this now:)
 
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Warbler said:
The answer is simple. Get yourself a caravan and go and spend August on the coast at Deauville. A dedicated speed rater could enjoy an edge in the French pools not a thousand miles removed that enjoyed by pioneers like Beyer before his methods were widely copied and his figures published
Click to expand...
The biggest problem with speed rating French racing is there's so much of it - hard to draw a line at just the PMU stuff as horses regularly chop between the PMH & PMU stuff.

Some great stuff out there but having spent a lot of time handicapping, providing I/R comments etc. for jumps races over there and then considered the flat you'd need at least two people to rate all the flat races during the Summer or go into it with half a database.

Sorry I'm late to this thread - great idea.

Martin
 
Irish Stamp said:
The biggest problem with speed rating French racing is there's so much of it - hard to draw a line at just the PMU stuff as horses regularly chop between the PMH & PMU stuff.

Some great stuff out there but having spent a lot of time handicapping, providing I/R comments etc. for jumps races over there and then considered the flat you'd need at least two people to rate all the flat races during the Summer or go into it with half a database.

Sorry I'm late to this thread - great idea.

Martin
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Doing the all weather meetings this time of year must be a better option. Only one meeting a week and bookmakers clueless at pricing it?
 
personally..doing the AW and turf..and now NH figures..is quite enough for me..there are plenty of underrated hosses..its delving to find em...full time job keeping up

i need 3 hours a day just to talk favourites with Slim for a start:)
 
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