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EC1 said:
personally..doing the AW and turf..and now NH figures..is quite enough for me..there are plenty of underrated hosses..its delving to find em...full time job keeping up

i need 3 hours a day just to talk favourites with Slim for a start:)
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The key is to specialise in whatever it is you have the biggest edge and have other people to swap info with you so you can increase your volume and therefore profit over the year.
 
speed/sectionals is area i deal with Slim..i can get enough from that alone without worrying too much about owt else..i've only started doing NH stuff to change the background from sand to mud
 
EC1 said:
.there are plenty of underrated hosses..its delving to find em...full time job keeping up
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I'm probably being lazy but once I've found between 10 and 15 for my tracker during the summer I kind of relax the research I suppose.
 
i note races as well as hosses,,just to see if anything puts a marker on a race i think is ok..my list is massive due to this alone..actual hosses to follow must be about 4 or 5 a week that i consder strong bets next time..but through the winter that soon starts adding up..i use a spreadsheet then just paste from sporting life abc everyday..it automatically highlights if owts running..that is unless i type a space at the end of the name when i note it:)..did that last week..wish i hadn't spotted it before the race as it f00kin lost anyway
 
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SlimChance said:
Doing the all weather meetings this time of year must be a better option. Only one meeting a week and bookmakers clueless at pricing it?
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If you just do Dundalk you're probably ok but then what do you do when they run on turf during the Summer?

In France there's Pornichet, Deauville, Lyon-La-Soie, Marseille-Vivaux all racing at the moment and Cagnes-Sur-Mer is starting up soon - plus anything that happens on turf you have to take on trust that something hasn't improved/deteriorated and you're stuck for rating horses until they screw up a race by being unrated when they run on the AW in nine or ten months time.

Martin
 
Ditto EC - always worth noting good/decently run races and those that traditionally throw up plenty of winners.

"rear, mod late prog" I had for one debutant in a very hot race at Auteuil (he finished 8th), two starts later it won a conditions race @ 14's (bigger with UK books) and only subsequent start he was 4th in a Grade 1.

Martin
 
Irish Stamp said:
If you just do Dundalk you're probably ok but then what do you do when they run on turf during the Summer?

In France there's Pornichet, Deauville, Lyon-La-Soie, Marseille-Vivaux all racing at the moment and Cagnes-Sur-Mer is starting up soon - plus anything that happens on turf you have to take on trust that something hasn't improved/deteriorated and you're stuck for rating horses until they screw up a race by being unrated when they run on the AW in nine or ten months time.

Martin
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Dundalk is broadly covered the French AW is a complete unknown over here.
 
think i will start another thread for the next race we look at..this one has turned into more of a general value topic.,,created some interest anyway
 
Irish Stamp said:
Ditto EC - always worth noting good/decently run races and those that traditionally throw up plenty of winners.

"rear, mod late prog" I had for one debutant in a very hot race at Auteuil (he finished 8th), two starts later it won a conditions race @ 14's (bigger with UK books) and only subsequent start he was 4th in a Grade 1.

Martin
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I missed that post on the 'will win' thread.
 
EC1 said:
think i will start another thread for the next race we look at..this one has turned into more of a general value topic.,,created some interest anyway
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The most interesting thread in a while with all this ditch jumping nonsense.
 
SlimChance said:
Dundalk is broadly covered the French AW is a complete unknown over here.
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True but there's plenty of work to be done on it - can be done as most AW covered by Equidia and times readily available (though would want to double check any anomalies as the details in France at the non-major tracks are sketchy at best).
 
The sublime to the ridiculous this is, could we dull this ******* thread down please, it's like a parody of schizophrenia.

Its Saturday night...get your fecking legs overs...or make f*cking plans to. There's a f*cking Private Message facility on this forum.
 
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marble said:
The sublime to the ridiculous this is, could we dull this ******* thread down please, it's like a parody of schizophrenia.

Its Saturday night...get your fecking legs overs...or make f*cking plans to. There's a f*cking Private Message facility on this forum.
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I got the ride between pages 8 and 9. I don't need a PM to tell you to go **** yourself.
 
I'd like to ask everyone who posted how they arrived at the percentages, was it via their own ratings, via Timeform ratings, via speed figures, or a combination of different things ? I still can't get my head round this concept of how many times would a horse win if the race was run one hundred times. Surely if you evaluate a race and come up with the horse you think has the best chance of winning, you come up with the same horse every time.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
I'd like to ask everyone who posted how they arrived at the percentages, was it via their own ratings, via Timeform ratings, via speed figures, or a combination of different things ? I still can't get my head round this concept of how many times would a horse win if the race was run one hundred times. Surely if you evaluate a race and come up with the horse you think has the best chance of winning, you come up with the same horse every time.
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Just because you think a horse is the most likely winner doesn't mean it you think it has a 100pc chance of winning.

Maybe it would help to imagine a two runner race - if you think horse A has a 60pc chance and horse B has a 40pc chance, then any price better than 4/6 is value for A and any price better than 6/4 is value for horse B.

If you were offered 5/4 about a coin coming up heads that would be a value bet and you'd make money over time. That doesn't mean you think the coin will come up heads.

Am I making any sense?
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Surely if you evaluate a race and come up with the horse you think has the best chance of winning, you come up with the same horse every time.
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The key lies partly in the wording. The one you come up with "every time" is the one you're most likely to bet but are its odds longer or shorter than its true chances? In other words, how correctly are you assessing the race?

In fact, if a horse's true chances are 5/1 we have to accept you'd need to run the race 6 times to ensure a win.

"The best chance" of winning implies it won't necessarily win; others will all have chances too but maybe not as strong (in one person's opinion).

It's a question of calculating how much better one's chances are than another's.

I had a program that did that but I hardly ever used it.

Edit

Just been thinking about this a bit more while tidying the kitchen...

Why did I back 3 in the Welsh National? Because I accept that the one I fancy the most won't necessarily win. So which others did I like and how much did I like them?

There were several in the race whose chances I'd pretty much dismissed out of hand. I suppose I really should be laying these rather than trying to find the winner but I'm afraid of being wrong.

We also need to accept that the principle of a handicap is to equalise every horse's chances but we know an entire field never crosses the line in a dead-heat.
 
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Diamond Geezer said:
I'd like to ask everyone who posted how they arrived at the percentages, was it via their own ratings, via Timeform ratings, via speed figures, or a combination of different things ? I still can't get my head round this concept of how many times would a horse win if the race was run one hundred times. Surely if you evaluate a race and come up with the horse you think has the best chance of winning, you come up with the same horse every time.
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It wouldn't really be a good idea in fact..very silly...for anyone to post up how they arrived at their ratings..the whole idea is that we are all individuals and so will have our way of doing it..to put out each individual method to all and sundry would just lose any edge we might think we have.

Lets say..and i've done this before in the past to a decent success..over the next few weeks we had a decent success..people would flock..i've seen it happen..they would hoover up everyone's methods and duplicate what we are doing..after a number of weeks..you'd be wasting your time. People got so protective of it last time it went to a private access forum..thats how good it was. I'm not saying that will happen..we might be sh1te..but the whole process an individual carries out should only be known to him/her.
 
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EC1 said:
final odds

TH odds
Best Bookie Odds
7/2WESTREN WARRIOR9/2
5/1BIVOUAC11/2
5/1IBIS DU RHEU11/2
7/1YALA ENKI4/1
10/1BROTHER TEDD8/1
13/1UN ACE14/1
15/1DELL'ARCA14/1
15/1LITTLE BOY BORU20/1
23/1DEEP TROUBLE40/1

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the best value bet is Westren Warrior....1 pt win at betfair price..5.9
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we did a cracking job first time
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One more question and then I'll shut up (maybe :whistle:)

So why was last weekend deemed a success ? The winner was the worse value.
 
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