Franking of Form - is it relevant?

i haven't dismissed anything in that original post.

When looking at established horse form..is a race really not up to much if horses behind the winner don't frank the form in future.

Discuss

 
How is anyone supposed to know what "established horse form" means though?

On the other thread, you were dismissing 'franking' out-of-hand as a "myth". Have you revised that opinion?
 
With novices they can only win in the race theyre in. If the better ones are aimed at The Festival it's nice to have the form in the book in a fast run race, but others get beat or are unconsidered in slowly run races and then excel off a championship pace on spring ground. Subsequent winners can be a good guide, but it has to be taken in the context of the race they're in.

Just because a horse hasn't been asked to run a particular type of race doesn't mean they won't improve significantly when they get the opportunity.

If you get a chance to assess Leopardstown today I'd be really interested EC. Bleu et Rouge has improved past horses he was beaten by today, and to my eye they went a decent pace. Given there are some good races there today it shouldn't be difficult to get a line on what the form is worth, and how to assess it in relation to the Other Supreme contenders.
 
Established means having existed or done something for a long time so the question is wrong or misunderstood. If it's established form it doesn't need franked it just needs the horse to be on song.

You have to ask yourself did Blue Fashion have to win to convince punters he was going to win the Champion Hurdle. No more than L'Ami had to win to convince punters Kauto Star would win the Gold Cup........neither runner up won a thing worth talking about after running those horses close and very close in KS's case. But they had other form that was good enough to win their races.

So the answer has to be no or yes depending on which form you are looking at.

Look at the Irish Gold Cup today. Lets say the bookies have got it right and R2R wins and First Lieutenant is beaten 20 lengths are we to assume Don Poli is wasting his time going to Cheltenham ?

100% the form of established horses doesn't need to be franked..the form that does need franked is on the way to the top not when you have already proven you have the ability
 
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the most important thing about form is evaluating every horse individually and understanding what race conditions they perform best under. If you aren't prepared to go through hours of video analysis it's a waste of time there is no point acknowledging that Timmy beat Tommy if you don't know why he did. My pocket can attest to this but you have to lose to learn. when you get three or four horses performing well under their favoured conditions this is when you usually get the good 'form' races. when I had time to study races i'd find myself focusing on horses and almost forgetting the rest of the field. then do that with as many races as possible and you'll get a better understanding of that horse. Because I saw him mentioned Peace and Co was only ever going to win one way in the Triumph last year. track the pace and be delivered as late as possible. I think if hargam and top notch ran 5 lbs worse Peace and Co wasn't going to go away by an extra 5 lengths, he'd just be delivered in the same manner and win by a similar distance. Maybe that's more to do with ratings but it all comes under the same umbrella of form I guess. I appreciate the kind welcome last week I can't seem to remember what thread it was in so I'll have to wave the white flag on that and apologise :surrender:
 
In a perfect world, it's great if it is franked

In reality, every horse has its day, be it by chance or laid out plan. All the form work in the world won't stop a plan
 
Most stay at home punters who have never been out there and done it don't realize just how little it takes to turn an expected good day into a bad day.

Yesterday we saw P & C and Gorby run way bellow what we expected and immediately we think there goes their Cheltenham chances.

But really no one for one minute thinks either ran anywhere near their best.

If we did Footpad would probably be shorter odds for the Triumph than Gorby and he and PN's would be disputing favourtism at around 5./2.

So their form needs franking by themselves before we trust it.
 
Tanlic said:
But really no one for one minute thinks either ran anywhere near their best.
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Maybe not near their best but plenty appear to be doubting P&C was ever as good as he seemed last year and, as I detailed elsewhere, it is not hard to argue that the Triumph form is every bit as good as it looked at the time. It's just looking -so far - that the front three have not made the same level of progress, if any, as those who ended up well beaten.

But we've also had the shittiest winter for bad ground.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Maybe not near their best but plenty appear to be doubting P&C was ever as good as he seemed last year and, as I detailed elsewhere, it is not hard to argue that the Triumph form is every bit as good as it looked at the time. It's just looking -so far - that the front three have not made the same level of progress, if any, as those who ended up well beaten.

But we've also had the shittiest winter for bad ground.
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The Triumph last year just looked a par renewal on my calcs..at the time i was a little confused by the official ratings..i thought the TH just an average race..and the GC ..a really top figure..that was polar opposite to what the official handicapper came up with. The GC was really good and backed up by a superb time..beat the foxhunters by 17 seconds..very few GC's do that. Thats immense really..such a shame we haven't seen him since the comeback..which looked pretty smart These were figures for that day

Peace & Co = 150
Wicklow Brave = 140
Martello Tower = 145
Coneygree = 180
On The Fringe = 127

I was 9lb lower than OHR gave for P&C..but i was 8lb higher than OHR re Coneygree.

I'm still happy that those figures are decent. Anything from that TH had to improve a fair bit to get near CH level
 
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When it comes to evaluating point form, bumpers, maiden, novice and juvenile races it's definitely relevant to have a look at what others in the race have been able to do subsequently. But it's only relevant to have a look at the horses in behind, what the ones in front go on to do means almost nothing. One of the greatest fallacies is to give extra attention to a horse because it was placed behind something that has since gone on to better things.
 
EC1 said:
The Triumph last year just looked a par renewal on my calcs..at the time i was a little confused by the official ratings..i thought the TH just an average race..and the GC ..a really top figure..that was polar opposite to what the official handicapper came up with. The GC was really good and backed up by a superb time..beat the foxhunters by 17 seconds..very few GC's do that. Thats immense really..such a shame we haven't seen him since the comeback..which looked pretty smart These were figures for that day

Peace & Co = 150
Wicklow Brave = 140
Martello Tower = 145
Coneygree = 180
On The Fringe = 127

I was 9lb lower than OHR gave for P&C..but i was 8lb higher than OHR re Coneygree.

I'm still happy that those figures are decent. Anything from that TH had to improve a fair bit to get near CH level
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.


You're talking about a horse in Peace and Co that impressed so much he was immediately made 2nd favourite for the Champion Hurdle along with the 169 rates Arctic Fire.

Am I reading this right you are saying he ran to 150 in the Triumph?

Since the Triumph Top Notch off 158 was just touched off in the Grade 1 Hargam ran The New One 162 to 3/4 length on ground he hated
Please explain how you get Peace and Co 150 for winning the triumph but the professional handicapper is miles higher.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Maybe not near their best but plenty appear to be doubting P&C was ever as good as he seemed last year and, as I detailed elsewhere, it is not hard to argue that the Triumph form is every bit as good as it looked at the time. It's just looking -so far - that the front three have not made the same level of progress, if any, as those who ended up well beaten.

But we've also had the shittiest winter for bad ground.
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tbh I wouldn't expect Top Notch to improve much more, Hargam on good ground is a 7lb better horse and Peace and Co will be back. After the shock of him losing I think it's fair to say he showed enough to suggest there's improvement to come.

He's come there easily ready to pounce then found very little. If he hadn't shown his undoubted talent before I would worry but that was a Classic in need of the run race.

Daryl Jacob didn't seem too worried and stated he was confident Nicky will have him spot on for the CH....time will tell
 
Tanlic said:
.


You're talking about a horse in Peace and Co that impressed so much he was immediately made 2nd favourite for the Champion Hurdle along with the 169 rates Arctic Fire.

Am I reading this right you are saying he ran to 150 in the Triumph?

Since the Triumph Top Notch off 158 was just touched off in the Grade 1 Hargam ran The New One 162 to 3/4 length on ground he hated
Please explain how you get Peace and Co 150 for winning the triumph but the professional handicapper is miles higher.
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If my ratings were exactly the same as the OHR's..i'd be wasting my time doing them Tanlic..so would DO..so would anyone who takes the time.

I'm not really understanding your point tbh..am i getting stick for reading the race correctly?

Of course the TH horses will run to higher marks than they did the season after the TH..thats bloody obvious...but my point was..P&C was over rated on 159 at the time he won the TH..in my opinion.

I get excited about figures when they are above the level for a race...Our Conor was above the level for an average winner for a TH. In my experience a TH hoss will improve about 14 lb the folowing season..on average,,,.so when i see a TH winner i'd be wanting a Our Conor figure not a P&C figure to be near a CH level the season after. Then they have to show that they don't need further than 2 miles..which is another story.

If you look at last years TH..those near the front haven't even improved the 14lb average siince the TH..from my figure of 150.

I'd expect that P&C should this season have got to about a 165 level..and thats with average improvement..many years..they fall short of that...thats below the CH average..and 10 below such as Faugheen. Again..thats why i didn't see him winning a CH..even with average improvement.

TH horses improve..everyone knows that..but my opinion was that he would have to improve well above average to be near CH level..which was why i never thought the form was that great...and i've said it often enough on here.
 
EC1 said:
I was 9lb lower than OHR gave for P&C..but i was 8lb higher than OHR re Coneygree.

I'm still happy that those figures are decent. Anything from that TH had to improve a fair bit to get near CH level
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Isn't it the case that every year, including Our Conor in his year, has had to improve a fair bit to get near CH level.

Wasn't the likes of Katarino only 140-odd after winning the Triumph?
 
Tanlic said:
tbh I wouldn't expect Top Notch to improve much more, Hargam on good ground is a 7lb better horse and Peace and Co will be back. After the shock of him losing I think it's fair to say he showed enough to suggest there's improvement to come.

He's come there easily ready to pounce then found very little. If he hadn't shown his undoubted talent before I would worry but that was a Classic in need of the run race.

Daryl Jacob didn't seem too worried and stated he was confident Nicky will have him spot on for the CH....time will tell
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My worry with Henderson juveniles is whether he over-trains them.

I'm not sure I've recovered from Grandouet's repeated disappointments as a 5yo and right now I'm struggling to think of any top juvenile of Henderson's in the last five or six years that has found the kind of improvement it shouldn't be unreasonable to expect the following season.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Isn't it the case that every year, including Our Conor in his year, has had to improve a fair bit to get near CH level.

Wasn't the likes of Katarino only 140-odd after winning the Triumph?
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yes..every year..imo a TH hoss improves about 14 lb..on average

i can't give exact figures of improvement for every winner i'm afraid..and its an average so i can base a judgement on it..but when they start at 150..on my figs..i expect..on average a mid 160's potential..with Our Conor..that was a higher expectation. We will never know what he could have been.

Its the start the point where my figures differed from the ohr re the triumph..he had him 9lb higher..he also had coneygree 8 lower than me..he also rated Altior 144 after ascot in october..i had him 8 lb higher..who was right? Now every one and their mother rate him highly.

in a bit..i'll have to start apologising for being right

i can't really win..if my ratings don't mirror the official one..i'm a thick tw't..when they don't..and mine are proved right..i'm still wrong on here

i give up tbh on this forum..you are best just to post one line stuff and leave at that..anything else just leaves you open to criticism..even when you are right..its ignored..until you get it wrong..then its boot in time
 
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I apologise if you thought I was coming across as critical of your figures, EC1. I would hope you know me well enough to know it would not be my intention.

Like you, I went high with Altior early on and when our figures agree it gives me more confidence but I can accept that I get it wrong now and again.

The whole point of compiling one's own figures is to see how much we differ from ORs, Timeform, RPR etc. I admit I get huge satisfaction out of finding my figures more reliable than theirs enough of the time to stay ahead on the betting front.

Just because our figures differ now and again doesn't mean either of us is a thick tw*t. We can't both be right all of the time if we're coming up with different figures for the same performance.
 
Desert Orchid said:
My worry with Henderson juveniles is whether he over-trains them.

I'm not sure I've recovered from Grandouet's repeated disappointments as a 5yo and right now I'm struggling to think of any top juvenile of Henderson's in the last five or six years that has found the kind of improvement it shouldn't be unreasonable to expect the following season.
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Absolutely no way does he over train them. You may remember Rolling Star who started fav for the TH a few years back?

He arrived from France with all sorts of hype Nicky never did a stroke with him for months because he thought he needed time.

He was what you might call useless/overrated but it was nothing todo with over training.

Had a few dry years without outstanding Juvenilles but he keeps coming up with some real good Novices.

Nicky held Spirit Son in higher regard then Sprinter Sacre two great horses. L'ami Serge, MTOY they all won their fair share.


You're probably right and you haven't recovered from Grandouet's flops
 
Desert Orchid said:
My worry with Henderson juveniles is whether he over-trains them.

I'm not sure I've recovered from Grandouet's repeated disappointments as a 5yo and right now I'm struggling to think of any top juvenile of Henderson's in the last five or six years that has found the kind of improvement it shouldn't be unreasonable to expect the following season.
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Absolutely no way does he over train them. You may remember Rolling Star who started fav for the TH a few years back?

He arrived from France with all sorts of hype Nicky never did a stroke with him for months because he thought he needed time.

He was what you might call useless/overrated but it was nothing todo with over training.

Had a few dry years without outstanding Juvenilles but he keeps coming up with some real good Novices.

Nicky held Spirit Son in higher regard then Sprinter Sacre two great horses. L'ami Serge, MTOY they all won their fair share.


You're probably right and you haven't recovered from Grandouet's flops
 
I think the dim view most have of the Triumph is a tad harsh. Top Notch and Hargam have both performed with a certain amount of credit and the latter in particular would interest me in the spring when he has his ground.
 
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