Gambling Stables

Will try to get the heating back on today. Lot's of early action with some greened up shorteners early this morning. Four horses look interesting from stables that do well when money shows for their horses, so will have a lazy yankee on these. By 25 past 2 I will find out if the heating is going on tonight:D

Doncaster 12.30 Tasever
Kelso 12.33 Salvino
Doncaster 13.30 Misty Dancer
Kelso 14.18 Theme Tune

Theme Tune in particular is from a very shrewd yard.
 
Theme Tune : "lost his way last season for previous connections and whilst we are very much still on a learning curve with him, we hope we have identified a couple of issues that can see him get his career back on track"
 
chaumi said:
Theme Tune : "lost his way last season for previous connections and whilst we are very much still on a learning curve with him, we hope we have identified a couple of issues that can see him get his career back on track"
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Thanks for that chaumi. With a very shrewd trainer, will be having a single bet on it, I never miss Alexander shorteners. Fingers xed, house is getting cold:D
 
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If Theme Tune could hurdle properly I might have had a warm night:D Would have been an ok double. Harsh game this, luckily I have a few logs:D
 
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One horse today that has been supported by shrewd connections is Haddex Des Obeaux in the 2.35 at Kempton. 3.35 on Betfair.
 
EC21, A good thread and one that sort of appeals to me, but I think many people fall into a trap of thinking yards are gambling stables, when they are most likely not, and I think it's always worth trying to work out the stance on a betting market and whether it could be tipster related, a reaction of negativity in another horse or as most commonly found, put up by a leading racing figure.

I think it is very easy to look at yards such as O'Meara, Appleby (M) and Stuart Williams and so forth and get into the impression that they are gambling yards because of the horses they have and some of the owners they have, but not all owners will be working on that directive, so in many cases, horses from these stables tend to be over bet, and shortened more than they should be when money arises.

I think the better directed punter may research horses which fit the right profiles as horses who could be gambling jobs, rather than looking for a yard.

Today I read your comment ;

"One horse today that has been supported by shrewd connections is Haddex Des Obeaux in the 2.35 at Kempton - The first thing which is apparent is the horse was matched at a Betfair high of 5.0 (4/1 less commission), and it is important to note that said horse was priced biggest by B365 at 7/2 yesterday afternoon and was soon trimmed to 100/30 and ended up around 3/1 overnight.

There was in fact still 3/1 this morning, although generally 11/4. It can be noted between 8.45 and 9.45 the horse was trimmed to 5/2 and 9/4 in a place, but it's exchange price remained around the 11/4-3/1 mark and in fact the horse remains 3/1 with SkyBet who go 4 places on the race, whilst most firms are 11/4.

For me I would suspect it was a case, he appealed as a ew double sort of horse at 3s and 7/2, and the yard would definitely not be a day before type of betting yard.

Secondly, your post alludes that the horse has been backed by shrewd connections. I appreciate you may not wish to say how you know this, but the betting pattern doesn't scream the yards usual pattern. They normally back after 1pm, and then again in the 20 minutes preceding the race. So is it a case of you knowing that the Moore yard and it's owners have backed this horse? Or was it based on seeing who it was trained by and that it was shortening early and brought you to this conclusion ?

I have noticed lately that certain yard horses seem to always get shortened at certain times, and the Moore yard is one of them. I suspect as they are monitored yards and know if they clip a horse in half or a pt then a number of people will follow, a way to generate money for a horse, without it actually having had a connected bet placed on it.

I am not trying to tell you how to suck eggs, but sometimes I think you have to think forward. There is no advantage betting a horse early, and look who has shortened it. Most punters, certainly ones connected to bigger known gambling yards, would never get on with the likes of Sky or B365, so if it is an early trimmer by them, I sometimes come to the assessment that it is more than likely not connected money, than connected money.

In the case of the Moore horse, it's profile alone today gave it a chance, as it was running a promising race before getting tired and unseating at Newton Abbot after a year off, on ground plenty quick enough for him, so he would appeal today, and wouldn't have to be a gamble horse so to speak, as he was relatively progressive last season since arriving from France and had posted a figure of 130 a year ago, so off 126 having ran to 125 last time, he should have had a solid form chance anyway.

I would suggest he is merely a horse who needed the run last time, ran acceptably well and with normal improvement should have a solid place / winning chance in this company, but does not really look a gambled by the yard type.


Personally today, my eyes were drawn to one race at Wolverhampton.

The 7.00 had two interesting runners for me in Thapa VC and Repartee, who both run for yards that when positive in the betting, usually go close.

Thapa VC for Mark Rimell, is a CD winner off 71 and has won again off 72, before winning off 74. He had been on the go a while for sure and two turf runs were poor, before switching back to the all weather last time. He was strong in the market for a 0-75 and held every chance, but just faded late on. The handicapper dropped him back to 72, a mark he had been successful off in the past and it was interesting to see Rob Hornby back on him this time having won twice on him before. He was 15/2 biggest, but has remained solid in the market all day and is now priced 11/2 in a place, but generally 5/1. I have no doubt, the yard will expect a big run from him today and the money is probably stable related, but the horse remains solid in this grade and is back to a strong mark, but personally I would have liked to have seen him in a 0-70.

The other that stood out was Repartee and if anything was a gamble type it's him. Tony Carroll is definitely a yard that likes a punt and this horse was as big as 9/1 this morning and 10s last night. He has been continuously bet all day and now is rock solid at 6/1 and 11/2. This horse was 103 rated for Kevin Ryan 2 years ago, but lost his way a little, before joining Lee Carter rated 92. He hadn't run for that yard before being switched to Tony Carroll, but having never been put in a race off 92 on his first run for the yard over 7f, he ran to 82. He was then ran over inadequate trips before appearing to be in an interesting race off 80 at Kempton. He was however very weak in the market and was again not put in the race and tenderly ran on to be 5th in a race that worked out well. He then had some time off and when he ran at the end of August it was at Epsom over 6f and again weak in the market, he never figured.
Now the handicapper has dropped him to 75, and this is his first chance of running in this grade. He returns to 7f, and I would suggest in the 2 months since his last race, he has been got fit. Stall 4 is a very good draw, and Clifford Lee is a good jockey booking and an interesting one given his only other ride on the card is a 100/1 shot in a maiden. 7f on a track like Wolves where they go flat out, could really suit and the Carroll yard is definitely one to take note of when the money comes. Now I have no idea if it is yard money, but given it has been sustained all day, and the horse has the back class and the profile to be a typical gamble horse, than I would suggest he is more than likely at least fancied by the yard today.

I don't think an each way bet on both of these would be a bad way to play the race given most firms go 4 places, and they are in a sense, each way bets to nothing. I personally like Scott Dixon's Visibility on recent form as well, and I would be tempted to put them in a small CFC and add in Melodramatica (very well drawn pace horse) for a CTC as well. I didn't like the paper fav of Heather Main's who has won in much weaker races and is now up against well treated horses in a harder grade and its form is at Kempton, which doesn't always translate to Wolves.

I think one of the two selections can win, and I would be hopeful of getting the Main horse out the 3, to get a nice CFC or CTC dividend to boot.

All the best if playing.
 
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Flame said:
EC21, A good thread and one that sort of appeals to me, but I think many people fall into a trap of thinking yards are gambling stables, when they are most likely not, and I think it's always worth trying to work out the stance on a betting market and whether it could be tipster related, a reaction of negativity in another horse or as most commonly found, put up by a leading racing figure.

I think it is very easy to look at yards such as O'Meara, Appleby (M) and Stuart Williams and so forth and get into the impression that they are gambling yards because of the horses they have and some of the owners they have, but not all owners will be working on that directive, so in many cases, horses from these stables tend to be over bet, and shortened more than they should be when money arises.

I think the better directed punter may research horses which fit the right profiles as horses who could be gambling jobs, rather than looking for a yard.

Today I read your comment ;

"One horse today that has been supported by shrewd connections is Haddex Des Obeaux in the 2.35 at Kempton - The first thing which is apparent is the horse was matched at a Betfair high of 5.0 (4/1 less commission), and it is important to note that said horse was priced biggest by B365 at 7/2 yesterday afternoon and was soon trimmed to 100/30 and ended up around 3/1 overnight.

There was in fact still 3/1 this morning, although generally 11/4. It can be noted between 8.45 and 9.45 the horse was trimmed to 5/2 and 9/4 in a place, but it's exchange price remained around the 11/4-3/1 mark and in fact the horse remains 3/1 with SkyBet who go 4 places on the race, whilst most firms are 11/4.

For me I would suspect it was a case, he appealed as a ew double sort of horse at 3s and 7/2, and the yard would definitely be a day before type of betting yard.

Secondly, your post alludes that the horse has been backed by shrewd connections. I appreciate you may not wish to say how you know this, but the betting pattern doesn't scream the yards usual pattern. They normally back after 1pm, and then again in the 20 minutes preceding the race. So is it a case of you knowing that the Moore yard and it's owners have backed this horse? Or was it based on seeing who it was trained by and that it was shortening early and brought you to this conclusion ?

I have noticed lately that certain yard horses seem to always get shortened at certain times, and the Moore yard is one of them. I suspect as they are monitored yards and know if they clip a horse in half or a pt then a number of people will follow, a way to generate money for a horse, without it actually having had a connected bet placed on it.

I am not trying to tell you how to suck eggs, but sometimes I think you have to think forward. There is no advantage betting a horse early, and look who has shortened it. Most punters, certainly ones connected to bigger known gambling yards, would ever get on with the likes of Sky or B365, so if it is an early trimmer by them, I sometimes come to the assessment that it is more than likely not connected money, than connected money.

In the case of the Moore horse, it's profile alone today gave it a chance, as it was running a promising race before getting tired and unseating at Newton Abbot after a year off, on ground plenty quick enough for him, so he would appeal today, and wouldn't have to be a gamble horse so to speak, as he was relatively progressive last season since arriving from France and had posted a figure of 130 a year ago, so off 126 having ran to 125 last time, he should have had a solid form chance anyway.

I would suggest he is merely a horse who needed the run last time, ran acceptably well and with normal improvement should have a solid place / winning chance in this company, but does not really look a gambled by the yard type.


Personally today, my eyes were drawn to one race at Wolverhampton.

The 7.00 had two interesting runners for me in Thapa VC and Repartee, who both run for yards that when positive in the betting, usually go close.

Thapa VC for Mark Rimell, is a CD winner off 71 and has won again off 72, before winning off 74. He had been on the go a while for sure and two turf runs were poor, before switching back to the all weather last time. He was strong in the market for a 0-75 and held every chance, but just faded late on. The handicapper dropped him back to 72, a mark he had been successful off in the past and it was interesting to see Rob Hornby back on him this time having won twice on him before. He was 15/2 biggest, but has remained solid in the market all day and is now priced 11/2 in a place, but generally 5/1. I have no doubt, the yard will expect a big run from him today and the money is probably stable related, but the horse remains solid in this grade and is back to a strong mark, but personally I would have liked to have seen him in a 0-70.

The other that stood out was Repartee and if anything was a gamble type it's him. Tony Carroll is definitely a yard that likes a punt and this horse was as big as 9/1 this morning and 10s last night. He has been continuously bet all day and now is rock solid at 6/1 and 11/2. This horse was 103 rated for Kevin Ryan 2 years ago, but lost his way a little, before joining Lee Carter rated 92. He hadn't run for that yard before being switched to Tony Carroll, but having never been put in a race off 92 on his first run for the yard over 7f, he ran to 82. He was then ran over inadequate trips before appearing to be in an interesting race off 80 at Kempton. He was however very weak in the market and was again not put in the race and tenderly ran on to be 5th in a race that worked out well. He then had some time off and when he ran at the end of August it was at Epsom over 6f and again weak in the market, he never figured.
Now the handicapper has dropped him to 75, and this is his first chance of running in this grade. He returns to 7f, and I would suggest in the 2 months since his last race, he has been got fit. Stall 4 is a very good draw, and Clifford Lee is a good jockey booking and an interesting one given his only other ride on the card is a 100/1 shot in a maiden. 7f on a track like Wolves where they go flat out, could really suit and the Carroll yard is definitely one to take note of when the money comes. Now I have no idea if it is yard money, but given it has been sustained all day, and the horse has the back class and the profile to be a typical gamble horse, than I would suggest he is more than likely at least fancied by the yard today.

I don't think an each way bet on both of these would be a bad way to play the race given most firms go 4 places, and they are in a sense, each way bets to nothing. I personally like Scott Dixon's Visibility on recent form as well, and I would be tempted to put them in a small CFC and add in Melodramatica (very well drawn pace horse) for a CTC as well. I didn't like the paper fav of Heather Main's who has won in much weaker races and is now up against well treated horses in a harder grade and its form is at Kempton, which doesn't always translate to Wolves.

I think one of the two selections can win, and I would be hopeful of getting the Main horse out the 3, to get a nice CFC or CTC dividend to boot.

All the best if playing.
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I would have little idea of the type or level of detail you have put forward there, way way beyond anything I could attempt at following stables and their habits. I tend to regret the title "gambling stables" now tbh. I understand what you are saying totally. I have been a bit lazy with this in just crunching numbers about 12 months ago from a database. I did that a good while ago and then each time I followed a shortener/ not gamble, another simplified expression, if it was succesful, then I did a traffic light system on each stable in real time. All logic would say that if you really know stables and then you only back their gambles late on, when all the value has been ripped out of them, you ain't making money at all. That is why I have took the view of having lazy yankees or trebles etc. I can tell you now, I have read a lot of stuff on this and never saw anyone make sense of it. I am a numbers man so I tried to make a lazy system of following supported horses. One thing I have spotted is that a lot of stables are sh^t when money is down, generally, on their horses. I'm not putting anything serious up here, maybe this thread might get someone else to move it on. I appreciate your knowledge in this area, because mine is not related to actually knowing the trainers or in depth stuff someone like you will have. I'm a lazy old sod now Flame:D Getting lazier too:D Great input Flame.
 
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"who both run for yards that when positive in the betting, usually go close". That is the best way of descibing this thread rather than bloody gambling stables:cool:
 
EC21 said:
I would have little idea of the type or level of detail you have put forward there, way way beyond anything I could attempt at following stables and their habits. I tend to regret the title "gambling stables" now tbh. I understand what you are saying totally. I have been a bit lazy with this in just crunching numbers about 12 months ago from a database. I did that a good while ago and then each time I followed a shortener/ not gamble, another simplified expression, if it was succesful, then I did a traffic light system on each stable in real time. All logic would say that if you really know stables and then you only back their gambles late on, when all the value has been ripped out of them, you ain't making money at all. That is why I have took the view of having lazy yankees or trebles etc. I can tell you now, I have read a lot of stuff on this and never saw anyone make sense of it. I am a numbers man so I tried to make a lazy system of following supported horses. One thing I have spotted is that a lot of stables are sh^t when money is down, generally, on their horses. I'm not putting anything serious up here, maybe this thread might get someone else to move it on. I appreciate your knowledge in this area, because mine is not related to actually knowing the trainers or in depth stuff someone like you will have. I'm a lazy old sod now Flame:D Getting lazier too:D Great input Flame.
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I would suggest, if you have found this edge, why are you trying to create a new one? If you have a formula of noticing certain stables as to when their horses are bet, seldom win, than that is the angle you should be exploring, whether it be by laying said horse, or by removing said horse from the market and looking for what appeals to you as value.
 
Your horse ran well there EC21, I am not sure if the commentator is right by his error 2 out cost him, but probably more the fact he seemed to be running with the choke out for the first circuit. The winner looked attractively well treated and had been backed also, and notably was the trainers only runner today. Ran well enough there, unlucky.
 
Yes I do do that Flame. I will bet probably two against such a horse in a race. I like using both bits of the info though. That is two now that got beat like that in two days, didn't post yesterday but one I backed at Ffos Las led everywhere bar the bloody line...Roger Rarebit from Laceys yard. Was one of those that gets on your tits for an hour after as it has lost because it so looked the winner. I hate those that bother you like that:)
 
I always take note when reading the racecard when it says to watch out for market support. I should make a note of which stables they refer to.
 
moehat said:
I always take note when reading the racecard when it says to watch out for market support. I should make a note of which stables they refer to.
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Which is what I have being doing for a good while really, starting from those I thought were good at it due to 5 years data on Horseracebase. It is just about observation really in the end. Problem is, it is a full time job just watching this one aspect. I have found that I am now lazy, so have just concentrated on this for a good while.
 
Flame said:
Your horse ran well there EC21, I am not sure if the commentator is right by his error 2 out cost him, but probably more the fact he seemed to be running with the choke out for the first circuit. The winner looked attractively well treated and had been backed also, and notably was the trainers only runner today. Ran well enough there, unlucky.
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Yes, I agree, burned too much energy early.
 
moehat said:
I always take note when reading the racecard when it says to watch out for market support. I should make a note of which stables they refer to.
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Problem is, when it says that, it's a yard which is obvious and most people are looking for, and is a classic horse for a bookmaker to trim in to attract money, even if connections aren't betting it. You want to identify the ones that aren't obvious or haven't caught the racecard/racing post eyes.

I try to never look at spotlights or the tissue when assessing a race, as it will mislead you.

Doing your homework the day before, will often identify good value, more than bad value.
 
Flame said:
Problem is, when it says that, it's a yard which is obvious and most people are looking for, and is a classic horse for a bookmaker to trim in to attract money, even if connections aren't betting it. You want to identify the ones that aren't obvious or haven't caught the racecard/racing post eyes.

I try to never look at spotlights or the tissue when assessing a race, as it will mislead you.

Doing your homework the day before, will often identify good value, more than bad value.
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That is spot on, once you read the spotlights, you are fooked mentally, the anaylsis will lean you towards a selection and you will start making a case for it yourself. Without even realising it too. As Flame says, seeing the forecast market will also mess you up. Some good advice, and when you think about it, it is obvious really. Some great chat here.
 
6.00 Irregular Warfare is getting some hit, Varian knows the time of day with his 2yo's. Will have a dabble then get another 5 whiskies down. If it wins bloody heating is going on:D Then again, it might be worth looking at the odds of it first though, **** I didn't spot it was that price, crikey. Back to the whisky:blink: Fair to say it's time to pack in for the day:blink:
 
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chaumi said:
Heather's has halved on BF from close to 100
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Good trainer indeed, good spot. tell you what though, Varian rarely misses with 2yo when £'s are down. I thought it would be an even money shot or 4/5 shot, nearly choked when I saw it was 1.3, then it wins like one. I don't like playing short but would have had that all day once I saw the support for it. Never miss Varian with 2yo gambles. Heather Main knows about her horses, great place chaumi.
 
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I noted two earlier in the 6.30, which I just then want to ignore because both stables are good. Going to check now to see how the support is going. Well both are being supported, Knight knows his horses but I just have to have a few litres of whisky, I mean 20 on Varians yet again. There is no one I have come across better than him knowing his baby horses. Tawafag for me.
 
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