Glorious Goodwood

Desert Orchid said:
On actual times, they were running less than a second per furlong slower than standard and one or two of the jockeys were saying it was 'almost good'. Maybe some horses find it 'gluey' or 'tacky' when others don't? (I don't know.) It would suggest there was an element of drying out. Hopefully it will be closer to good again by Saturday.
Click to expand...
Just my theory, but most wouldn't know how their mounts would handle it, & were possibly told "if it doesn't go down to the start well, don't give 'em a hard time"
A plausible explanation for the dog's breakast of a race?
 
reet hard said:
Just my theory, but most wouldn't know how their mounts would handle it, & were possibly told "if it doesn't go down to the start well, don't give 'em a hard time"
A plausible explanation for the dog's breakast of a race?
Click to expand...

To be honest, reet, in all my years I've never heard that possibility mentioned but it's something I'd find entirely believable. I'd be more convinced if Nashwa had run like Perfuse (going nowhere at any time) but she appeared to come there cruising (I was counting my winnings). It can't have been easy trying to quicken past good horses when they were quickening too. Maybe a combination of everything going wrong on the day.

I'm not going to dwell too much on it and just write it off as a bad result for me.
 
I don’t think you are giving enough credit to the first two home since they have both beaten Nashwa this year when she was odds-on favourite. That they have done so again surely isn’t a huge surprise.
 
Last edited:
It's a much busier day for me than so far. My thoughts, written on Wednesday with edits in red...

1.50 - Almost all of these have proven form in soft ground so I’m not going to let that affect my thinking. It will probably be attritional and an upset is easily possible. My top two (The GV and VV) are both big prices so I’m happy to take them and Tronador (took 12s)against the field. I’ll also take the bottom (Arabescato) one at big odds but will hold off until Friday morning as he might go out to 100s or more since he’s over a stone out of the handicap. However, he wasn’t beaten far (fourth at 80/1) in this race last year off a pound higher, when he was only 5lbs wrong. Tronador is potentially thrown in on his hurdles form and this test might allow him to run closer to that level than we’ve seen so far.

2.25 - Nostrum is clearly the one to beat but will he act in such soft ground? It’s enough to make me wary of backing him - if the short price wasn’t enough already – so I’ll be looking elsewhere for options. Bold Discovery (2nd top on my figures) is the obvious one at a nice price. He ran well in heavy first time up. I was very taken by Docklands in the Britannia, in which he looked better than a handicapper but he doesn’t have any Group entries beyond this one. He’d previously hacked up in soft so the ground isn’t an issue. I do wonder why shrewdies like the Crisfords (Knight) and Joseph O’Brien, particularly the latter with a seasonal debutant, would turn up here, though, with relative longshots. I’ll probably go for Bold Discovery each-way if anyone goes three places (got 12/1) and Montesilvano likewise out of sheer curiosity.

3.00
[TABLE="width: 509"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Draw[/TD]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]MON
121+[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]BO[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 20 [/TD]
[TD] Dual Identity[/TD]
[TD]89[/TD]
[TD]128[/TD]
[TD]t[/TD]
[TD]33/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 18 [/TD]
[TD] Johan[/TD]
[TD]103[/TD]
[TD]123[/TD]
[TD]? e[/TD]
[TD]25/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 19 [/TD]
[TD] Orbaan[/TD]
[TD]96[/TD]
[TD]123[/TD]
[TD][126][/TD]
[TD]33/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2 [/TD]
[TD] Sonny Liston[/TD]
[TD]104[/TD]
[TD]122[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]20/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 12 [/TD]
[TD] Awaal[/TD]
[TD]105[/TD]
[TD]122[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]12/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 16 [/TD]
[TD] Rhoscolyn[/TD]
[TD]91[/TD]
[TD]122[/TD]
[TD]?
[134][/TD]
[TD]33/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 21 [/TD]
[TD] Escobar[/TD]
[TD]107[/TD]
[TD]122[/TD]
[TD]e[/TD]
[TD]50/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4 [/TD]
[TD] Tacarib Bay[/TD]
[TD]103[/TD]
[TD]121[/TD]
[TD]p?[/TD]
[TD]12/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 11 [/TD]
[TD] Blue For You[/TD]
[TD]102[/TD]
[TD]121[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]12/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 5 [/TD]
[TD] The Gatekeeper[/TD]
[TD]92[/TD]
[TD]120[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]33/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 17 [/TD]
[TD] Perotto[/TD]
[TD]97[/TD]
[TD]120[/TD]
[TD]+
[126][/TD]
[TD]12/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1 [/TD]
[TD] Revich[/TD]
[TD]97[/TD]
[TD]118[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]14/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3 [/TD]
[TD] Lattam[/TD]
[TD]95[/TD]
[TD]118[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]9/2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 6 [/TD]
[TD] The Wizard Of Eye[/TD]
[TD]105[/TD]
[TD]118[/TD]
[TD]p?[/TD]
[TD]20/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 13 [/TD]
[TD] Bopedro[/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]118[/TD]
[TD]e
122[/TD]
[TD]25/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 8 [/TD]
[TD] Dutch Decoy[/TD]
[TD]93[/TD]
[TD]117[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]12/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 14 [/TD]
[TD] Al Mubhir[/TD]
[TD]106[/TD]
[TD]117[/TD]
[TD]+p v[/TD]
[TD]20/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 15 [/TD]
[TD] Darkness[/TD]
[TD]94[/TD]
[TD]116[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]50/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 22 [/TD]
[TD] Eilean Dubh[/TD]
[TD]95[/TD]
[TD]116[/TD]
[TD]p?[/TD]
[TD]50/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 7 [/TD]
[TD] Racingbreaks Ryder[/TD]
[TD]97[/TD]
[TD]115[/TD]
[TD]p v[/TD]
[TD]14/1[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

A low draw (5 or lower) has won this race for the last eight years so it’s no surprise that these draws are the ones attracting money. However, go back long enough and a different picture emerges. In the six successive years from 2003 to 2008, draws sixteen or higher won. I’ve colour coded the field above: dark green for low draws, pale green for the highest draws (didn't copy across) and I’ve left those in between alone. They have a poor record, probably due to trouble in running. Hopefully this will give a better picture of which ratings, draws and odds combine to give value. There’s also the chance they’ll work over to the near rail in the straight, as on Wednesday, (they probably won't now) which might allow the middle draws a clearer run and if something can bag the near rail they might have an advantage. I’ll be mob-handed in the race. I’ve already backed Blue For You (stole 10/1 :() and will add Dual Identity if it runs, Johan, Orbaan, Sonny Liston, Rhoscolyn, Escobar and The Gatekeeper, and will cover them with Perotto but will wait to see how the market pans out and what extra places and terms become available on the day.

3.35 - I really want to see Highfield Princess win because I think she’s been unlucky the last twice but am reluctant to get involved at evens. I’ll hold off for now and hope for a drift. I can’t fancy much else to trouble her. (Haven't checked yet.)

4.10 - Hamish has the ground in his favour but his penalty combined with the gender concession to Mimikyu brings them together on paper. She was rated 112 at the start of the season and has maybe been finding the fast ground against her. Each-way against Hamish strikes me as the way to go but I’ll hold off until Friday to see if there are any non-runners or extra places. (Haven't checked yet.)

Edit - In the Golden Mile I've still a few of those mentioned to back but I've taken 20/1 Sonny Liston on the exchange. It's probably a negative that it's so long there compared with the books but it's got a great chance on my figures and is drawn low.
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
1.50 - Almost all of these have proven form in soft ground so I’m not going to let that affect my thinking. It will probably be attritional and an upset is easily possible. My top two (The GV and VV) are both big prices so I’m happy to take them and Tronador (took 12s) against the field.
Click to expand...

Well, the place returns on The GVV and Tronador gave me a wee profit on the race.

The winner was 16/1 on Wednesday so was clearly fancied but I have to say Luke Morris has to be the untidiest rider out there.

The winner wasn't far off the pace all the way while the others came from a long way back, probably overdoing the waiting tactics in the ground.
 
Last edited:
The sectionals in that 2.25 will be interesting. Will they show that Moore marginally overdid the front-running tactics? It looked to me like he was stopping in the last half-furlong. Frankie said Ryan wasn't stopping but maybe the sectionals will say different. Maybe it was just the ground sapping his stamina.
 
Desert Orchid said:
3.00

...

I’ll be mob-handed in the race. I’ve already backed Blue For You (stole 10/1 :() and will add Dual Identity if it runs, Johan, Orbaan, Sonny Liston, Rhoscolyn, Escobar and The Gatekeeper, and will cover them with Perotto but will wait to see how the market pans out and what extra places and terms become available on the day.
Click to expand...

The value of taking more than one in races of this nature...

Not a massive profit on the race but it all counts.

Edit - By the way, wasn't that a very interesting comment from James Doyle, that he thought he was going to go away and win easily but the horse's ring-rustiness kicked in late on, or words to that effect.
 
Last edited:
Hollie Doyle's take on Nashwa Yesterday:

[FONT=&quot]Nashwa ran a good race in defeat in her attempt to win the Group 1 Nassau Stakes at Glorious Goodwood on Thursday for the second year in a row. I’m obviously disappointed with the result, finishing third, but on reflection she did well under the circumstances. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]She settled into the race beautifully and travelled well, looking like the winner between the three and the two, but just wasn’t able to show her class and turn of foot on that dead, holding ground. I think the 10f in those conditions just stretched her stamina, too, but we’ll be back to go again once my boss Imad Alsagar and the team have formed another plan[/FONT].
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
Hollie Doyle's take on Nashwa Yesterday:

[FONT="][URL="https://www.attheraces.com/form/horse/Nashwa/GB/3344959"]Nashwa[/URL] ran a good race in defeat in her attempt to win the Group 1 Nassau Stakes at Glorious Goodwood on Thursday for the second year in a row. I’m obviously disappointed with the result, finishing third, but on reflection she did well under the circumstances. [/FONT]
[FONT="]She settled into the race beautifully and travelled well, looking like the winner between the three and the two, but just wasn’t able to show her class and turn of foot on that dead, holding ground. I think the 10f in those conditions just stretched her stamina, too, but we’ll be back to go again once my boss Imad Alsagar and the team have formed another plan[/FONT].
Click to expand...

Everyone seems to be looking for any reason under the sun but that she was beaten by two better horses. As I said, she has faced both the winner and second twice and been beaten by them twice. Perhaps that’s not a coincidence.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The sectionals in that 2.25 will be interesting. Will they show that Moore marginally overdid the front-running tactics? It looked to me like he was stopping in the last half-furlong. Frankie said Ryan wasn't stopping but maybe the sectionals will say different. Maybe it was just the ground sapping his stamina.
Click to expand...

The sectionals say both Nostrum and Bold Discovery, who were first to make their move from up front, were finishing slower than the first, third, fourth and sixth. I think the closing percentage for Goodwood is around 106% and they were below that, suggesting an over-fast pace, albeit marginal.

Screenshot (28).png
 
Is it a good or bad omen that John Quinn has had 3 winners and a 2nd from 4 runners at goodwood and Mr Wagyu is his last one.
 
Nothing negative about a trainer being bang in form. I'm very happy with my 25/1. I'm just really annoyed that Watson took Tabdeed out but it means I'll have to back the one they're running instead. It's fvcked up my tricast :lol:
 
When I saw Danny Tudhope not riding Blue for you I looked to see if he was riding one at newmarket for Clipper logistics. And he was and then I forgot about it today.only went and won at 15/2.
 
Outsider said:
When I saw Danny Tudhope not riding Blue for you I looked to see if he was riding one at newmarket for Clipper logistics. And he was and then I forgot about it today.only went and won at 15/2.
Click to expand...

It never occurred to me to check. :(

And I did check where he was riding on Saturday because he isn't on Summerghand!
 
Last edited:
My take on the Stewards' Cup. For those of you who got my missive on Thursday you'll notice I've tweaked the blurb a bit but the prices in the Best Odds column are as they were at the time because I can't be arsed going through them all again :)

I do hope at least one of us finds the winner!

[TABLE="width: 617"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Draw
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]S?
[/TD]
[TD]MON
122+
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]BO
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]23
[/TD]
[TD] Summerghand
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]ü
[/TD]
[TD]133
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14
[/TD]
[TD] Mr Wagyu
[/TD]
[TD]95
[/TD]
[TD]ü
[/TD]
[TD]129
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]25
[/TD]
[TD] Albasheer
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]{125o}
[/TD]
[TD]12/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD] Lucky Man
[/TD]
[TD]94
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]40/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19
[/TD]
[TD]Chairmanoftheboard
[/TD]
[TD]89
[/TD]
[TD]ü
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD] King's Lynn
[/TD]
[TD]107
[/TD]
[TD]ü
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD]e
[/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD] Makanah
[/TD]
[TD]98
[/TD]
[TD]ü
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16
[/TD]
[TD] Rumstar
[/TD]
[TD]109
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[TD] Aleezdancer
[/TD]
[TD]96
[/TD]
[TD]ü
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]p? s
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD] Mums Tipple
[/TD]
[TD]101
[/TD]
[TD]ü
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]27
[/TD]
[TD] Apollo One
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]26
[/TD]
[TD] Bielsa
[/TD]
[TD]99
[/TD]
[TD]üü
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD][125]
[/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD] Juan Les Pins
[/TD]
[TD]98
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]18/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3
[/TD]
[TD] Vintage Clarets
[/TD]
[TD]95
[/TD]
[TD]ü
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17
[/TD]
[TD] Spanish Star
[/TD]
[TD]94
[/TD]
[TD]ü
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]18
[/TD]
[TD] Badri
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24
[/TD]
[TD] Tactical
[/TD]
[TD]99
[/TD]
[TD]ü
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD] Hyperfocus
[/TD]
[TD]95
[/TD]
[TD]üü
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]28
[/TD]
[TD] Significantly
[/TD]
[TD]93
[/TD]
[TD]üü
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]127?
[/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD] Watchya
[/TD]
[TD]92
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]124?
[/TD]
[TD]50/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD] Came From The Dark
[/TD]
[TD]89
[/TD]
[TD]ü
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]oe
123o
[129o]
[/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD] Gorak
[/TD]
[TD]104
[/TD]
[TD]ü
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]? p
[/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD] Orazio
[/TD]
[TD]102
[/TD]
[TD]ü
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]5/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]22
[/TD]
[TD] Sterling Knight
[/TD]
[TD]93
[/TD]
[TD]üü
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]20
[/TD]
[TD] Good Earth
[/TD]
[TD]90
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]50/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15
[/TD]
[TD] Aberama Gold
[/TD]
[TD]95
[/TD]
[TD]ü
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD][126]
[/TD]
[TD]18/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1
[/TD]
[TD] Aphelios
[/TD]
[TD]89
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]40/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD] Tanmawwy
[/TD]
[TD]103
[/TD]
[TD]ü
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]18/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

This is another hugely competitive renewal and for the second year in a row a mark as low as 92 has made the cut. I suspected during the week that the near side might have any draw advantage since most of the races have been going up the middle since Wednesday whereas on Tuesday they were trying to get to the near rail but I’ve no idea how the heavy rain will affect that. The consolation race might shed some light on that so I might wait until after that to add to my bets. In the last 20 years when the ground has been officially “soft” the winners have been drawn 23, 15 and 10. I’ve added a new column to show which runners have shown their form in soft (ü) or heavy (üü) (In my Word document they are ticks but they're not translating across.) I’m on Summerghand and Mr Wagyu ante-post at 25s and still fancy them. I’m sticking with the theme of older form ‘suddenly being rediscovered’ so will also back Albasheer, Bielsa, Significantly, Came From The Dark and Aberama Gold at the best odds and terms. I also want Good Earth onside at a big price. He strikes me as the only obvious curve horse in the race and the jockey has an excellent record for the trainer. I’ve gone in again at longer than 50s.
 
Omniscient 2.25
Looks to have been trained with this in mind, and everything appears in place for Sir Mark to bring home the bacon.
16/1 B365
 
:lol:
Are we ever going to get a festival this season on proper sumer ground?
Roll on AW racing,when the surface is far more predictable.
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
I do hope at least one of us finds the winner!...

I’m on Summerghand and Mr Wagyu ante-post at 25s and still fancy them. I’m sticking with the theme of older form ‘suddenly being rediscovered’ so will also back Albasheer, Bielsa, Significantly, Came From The Dark and Aberama Gold at the best odds and terms.
Click to expand...

(Emphasis is mine.)

Decent enough compensation :)
 
Back
Top