EC1, that stat is worthless, for one reason because the premise that horseraces always run true to stats is demonstrably false; and for another, because KS was still suffering the effects of an injury last year and should not have run. He certainly didn't give his running - his courage got him home in 2nd
I think your eagerness to convince yourself that MdeB is the Gold Cup winner may be blinding you to the beedin' obvious
which is that apart from Denman, KS is the class horse in the race
If Denman were mine he would have put away for the season when it was clear that he was not responding as quickly as it was hoped to being back in training. I would still like to see that happen - ie I'd hope that PN and the owners will pull the plug for this year and give the horse more time to get over - or to forget - his sickness.
We know that intended runs have constantly been put back; and that the horse has been taking much longer to come to himself than was expected. Consider also what we have been told in the last 48 hours:
- that the Gold Cup last year totally bottomed him, that he was very quiet, more or less unwell, for quite a while after the race
- and that he took a very long time to come back to himself
- that the fibrillation appeared more or less as soon as he went back into trianing in September
- that Nicholls was "still very worried' two and a half months after the initial fibrillation problem was discovered
- that Nicholls felt, at that point (ie c.November) that if he could get the horse fit enough to win at top level in Feb/March it would be "his greatest ever training feat"
- that Ruby could not get him interested in racing for quite a long way into the race yesterday
- that he at no point pulled; nor raced with any real enthusiasm (except possibly over a few fences down the back half-way through the race)
- that he was so out on his feet in the final stages yesterday that he almost fell over the last
Madison was the in-form improver yesterday, whilst ALL the other runners had question marks over them. I therefore don't think we should take too much comfort from the way they were all so strung out. It was imo a poor race, for its level.
In respect of fibrillation: I added the personal info just to point out that I do have some experience of fibrillation and its likely prognosis and consequences (inc my vet's opinion). I don't think we really need silly personal remarks speculating on the causes... As it happens, my former husband had a heart a murmur - we only found out when he went for a company medical on taking a new job. It didn't bother him in the least and he was able to do very long days of hard and sustained physical activity
Fibrillation is a very different thing. It can be caused by either physical or mental stresses; but the point is it comes and goes (often in varying degrees, and pretty unpredictably) but when it comes, it's very unpleasant indeed. Your heart stops, sometimes for several seconds, and when it gets going again it's like a heavy door slamming to and fro in a gale - but irregularly. It makes you feel very nauseous, also shaky and neuraligic, it 'puts your heart in your throat'; and it's very scary indeed.
You do then tend to avoid - whether consciously or unconsciously, the effort or the situations which cause it. You can be clear as a bell for ages but you also know that IT CAN RECUR AT ANY TIME given the conditions
Of course horses remember - their bodies tell them what they need to know. Sometimes a horse which has come very near collapse for any reason just will not put itself though that barrier ever again. Some will lose interest in the whole shooting match - like Lord Atterbury after his near-collapse in the GN - and other horses will save themselves a bit.
I think we saw yesterday either a horse who is still sick, or a horse which is gone at the game mentally. Either way, I think pushing him for this year's GC and even worse the GN is foolish. If they turn him away until September they may still have a horse next year.
