Gold Cup 2009 (was: Denman)

[sunybay]

Madison could be improving (unlikely for me) but NC is a solid 180 horse for me, plenty of time better than 170s.

 

[Euronymous]

Yeah, it`s a bit mental that Madison is only a point longer than NC now. Typical over-reaction to the latest bit of information.

 

[Irish Stamp]

Euro - what's easier to have happened of the following scenarios

a) 5 horses ran below par on exactly the same day at the same time and in the same race

or

b) Madison has improved.

 

[Warbler]

purely on time he is a 178/182 ish horse Gearoid

Warbler might back this up...it's a great run thats for sure

I'm afraid not, the figure that he's run with me is nothing too remarkable, 81.70 compred with Denman's 111.55 in the Gold Cup. I'd be more inclined to dismiss the 0-135 chase as being slowly run (I omitted it from the calculation of variance) rather than point to the 11.11 secs that the Aon was faster. I'm probably finding myself more impressed by something I saw a month or so back at Taunton that left no impression on me at all. Hohlelthelonely has put up an impressive time in a 0-115 hurdle race (91.60) which would normally be quite respectable, adjusted for weight this comes out at 83.41. A typical winner of a Supreme Novices runs about 100, which puts this one about 35L's behind. Tartak is the other one whose put in a notabel display but nothing burned the clock up today.

It was a feature of Denmans racing and indeed the fast times that he ran in winning his most impressive races (the SAC, the Henessey and the GC) that he simply went through the fractions furlong after furlong at a high crusing speed with dead straight accurate jumping, and simply destroyed the opposition. I don't thinktodays race was that fast, despite them finishing well strung out. I'm not suggesting it was slow either, I'd be more inclined to call it respectable.

You might like to try looking at the King George which was 30.29 secs faster than todays race. Now I made the track variance +3.13 on Boxing Day (good to firm) and given that 3 of the 6 winners on the card (Michael Flips +3.30, Harchibald +1.70 and Kauto Star +2.60) all beat standard I'd be happy that I'm not far off, given that they've done it with a bit to spare. This would also sugges that some of the horses in behind them will also have beaten standard too and so lends some weight to my suggestion of +3.13. Incidentally, Michael Flips (a novice hurdler carrying 11.8) beat Harchibald by 1.6 secs, suggesting that he's either very smart, or that the Christmas Hurdle wasn't terribly fast, yet still the front three beat standard comfortably. In any event it points to the ground being a lot quicker than declared, or the distances being shorter than advertised. I reckon today's going was -4.47 (Soft) so at a mile aggregate the ground was assisting Kauto Star by 7.60 secs over Madison du Burlais. Over 3 miles this would equate to 22.80 secs, which means the King George was about 7.50 secs faster (or 30L's in BHB language and 37.5L's in mine). You could extend this slightly by sticking the extra 4Ibs on his back which is something like 1L for every 0.75Ib at 3 miles, so that would be worth another 5.25L's for projections of 35.25L's and 42.75L's respectively. In the King George this would have been enough to finish close up to Air Force One who was 40L's behind Kauto Star in fifth. Madison beat Air Force One by 3L's in the Hennesey receiving 3Ibs, which woudl kind of confirm today's rating against Kauto through Air Force One. So a projection for his hypothetical King George run based on today's performance appears to be very close to where I have it I think.

Madison received 3Ibs in Hennesey which off levels would mean Air Force One would beat him by about 2L's. Air Force One lost by 40L's when meeting Kauto off levels, which means Madison would theoretically lose by 42L's were he in the same race once all the weights and going corrections had been factored in. If I use my figure of 42.75L's then I'd say he's pretty well replicated his Hennesey run on the clock. If I use the BHB scale of time for lengths etc then he's improved by 6.75L's from the Hennesey. Progressive? yes, but is he on schedule? No

I think the Best Mate era might have seduced us into thinking that defending Gold Cups was a reasonably straight forward task. It's easy to forget how rare it is, and I must admit to having been concerned from the very first moment that the Denman stories started. Mind you supporters of Kauto Star are having to defy an even more compelling stat regarding regaining one. I've had a feeling all year that we'll see a new name on the trophy and my long distance fancy was Neptunes Collonges until I convinced myself he's not relly a Cheltenham horse and appears better going the other way round.

I think Denman has a mountain to climb now, but fitness rather than anything else has to be a fair consideration. The thing i fear, and echo whats been said already, is that Denman won his races by setting and maintaining a searching gallop. If caution prevents them from doing this now, then there has to be a question mark over whether they can continue with him competitively.

 

[Harbinger]

If it's really hard to retain one, and even harder to regain one, isn't it even harder to win won having been beaten in one previously like Neptunes or Exotic Dancer?

The whole Denman thing has reminded me of a famous quote by the great screenwriter William Goldman: 'Nobody knows anything'.

 

[Irish Stamp]

Personally think that Ruby has got too used to riding the best chaser we've ever seen in Master Minded.

With MM he front runs and turns the screw from 4 or 5 out - cruises on the bridle and gradually watches everything else drop out through jumping errors, stamina or other factors. He tried this on Free World at Ascot and it went wrong and taking out Madison he's beaten the others out of site, just Denman couldn't live with the Pipe horse today.

Not everything is MM - you have to play to the horses strengths and despite today's run Cheltenham's ups and downs will play more to Denman's strengths.

 

[Warbler]

If it's really hard to retain one, and even harder to regain one, isn't it even harder to win won having been beaten in one previously like Neptunes or Exotic Dancer?

Couldn't tell you about retaining one, but since I think I'm right in saying that no one has ever regained one, (difficult to imagine how it could be harder therefore) See More Business did at least win one having been beaten previously. Mind you, many more horses must have tried to win one after a defeat than retain or regain one, so perhaps the message from the stats would be misleading. I like the logic though. It could be an interesting elimination tool to find a big price somewhere

 

[Gearoid]

Is that the Master Minded that McCoy won on in the Victor Chandler and that Ruby got beat on at Aintree?

 

[Warbler]

Euro - what's easier to have happened of the following scenarios

a) 5 horses ran below par on exactly the same day at the same time and in the same race

or

b) Madison has improved.

or c) a combination of both?

If you look at the laws of probability you'd say A. If you explored the race a bit though, you might well be persuaded that in this case B has occurred.

Taking them in reverse, Trabolgan was having just his second run in three years having previously pulled up and is 11 years old now. To a large extent his form is historical and therefore no one knows what he could reasonably be expected to run to. He might very well have run to the limits of his capability, but I think it would be a mistake to say he's run below form based on his pre-injury levels as an 8yo.

Joe Lively finished lame and is out for the season.

Niche Market was 70L's behind, but might actually have run to form on most yardsticks. Last year he was beaten 94L's by Neptunes Collonges, and has enough verdicts over him from unspectacular horses that I'm not sure you could say he's run below his 66/1 expectation.

Albertas Run has run below form, as has Denman. The reasons behind Denmans run have been documented, and it's not as if defeat was out of the question. He went into the race with question marks over him, so Albertas is the one that I'd say has definately run below form the others either had excuses or had questions to answer.

Or put another way, how likely is it that a horse has improved past a current Gold Cup holder by 43L's on 9Ibs worse terms, purely down to his improvement alone, if you're assuming Denman has stood still.

I think we can all agree Denman has run below form, as has Albertas Run, so I'd be inclined to pose the question using just these two, and all of sudden I'm more persuaded by this than the idea that Madison Du Berlais has improved on Denman by something close to a whole furlong

 

[Warbler]

Personally think that Ruby has got too used to riding the best chaser we've ever seen in Master Minded.

You're not seriosuly suggesting that years and years of experience, habits and nous goes out the window on the strength of racing a horse a mere 6 times are you?

 

[Irish Stamp]

He has IMO tried to ride a number of horses the way he's been riding Master Minded of late Warbler - very handy, turning the screw a few fences out and then finding he has nothing in the tank. Today it looked like he'd try something similar till he was found out when Madison kicked on.


It probably is a combination of both - I don't think Madison is 23 lengths better than Denman on the bare form. I've good reason to believe that Denman was at least one gallop short of being ready for the track so that would account for at least 10 lengths and I take your points on both Trabolgan and Joe Lively, leaving a below par (possibly) Alberta's Run as the yardstick.

One thing I think we can all agree on is that we'll find out in March what's really going on

 

[harry]

I have been watching the way the Pipe team have been campaigning An accordian but they have a Gold Cup horse in Madison.

Trained ?... not the original Pipe style but this horse won on the bridle today and he won the Hennnesey(OK PN would have won)

Serious improver....

Take him out and Denman would have been 1/3 on....lengths ahead

Very, very interesting to have a machine like Madison in the equation

Hennesey winners are not to be under estimated

 

[Melendez]

In my most humble and worthless opinion there is no course in existance less suitable for Denman than Kempton. The fences came too quickly for him, interrupted his rhythm, and exacerbated a problem that I am putting down to his preparation, a combination of fitness and lack of sharpness (although I do have niggling doubts I may be wrong). I'd make Kauto favourite for Cheltenham after that, but only marginally.

 

[Harbinger]

See More Business did at least win one having been beaten previously.

His previous beating, however, involved being carried out relatively early whilst 11/2 second fav.

 

[Ardross]

Well they understandably wouldn’t have wanted to be too hard on the horse either before or during the race. He’s probably shown up very well in his work at three-quarter speed. They need to get hard work into him now.

But Steve - he did a 2mile piece of work with NC and Ruby was apparently delighted.

He didn't look unfit today - he just didn't look the same horse

 

[Songsheet]

But James - he has a fibrillating heart - all those bits of work, schooling, back on a racecourse, finishing second - he should be dead really !

Sorry, Headstrong but just about any animal will, at times, have an irregular heart rythym under pressure. I have no idea whether your heart fibrillation issues are similar or just panic attacks or attributable to a wildly misspent drugs 'n rock 'n roll youth, but in DENMAN's case, there's no comparison at all. The horse obviously does have some sort of problem, either physical or mental, who knows - he may or may not win the Gold Cup again - we'll all just have to wait and see.

Whatever the results of his cardiac work-ups, maybe PN has been easier on the horse than he otherwise might have been, with the worry at the back of his mind that the horse may indeed drop dead under extreme pressure and so yesterday he was less than 100% fit. If so, then at least the horse survived yesterday's test, they've got about five weeks to up the ante - it's a huge gamble but then trainng or prepping any animal is, come to that..

 

[uncle goober]

The fences at Kempton are no closer together than they are anywhere else.

 

[Colin Phillips]

If he were yours (aimed at all on here), what would you do with Denman now?

 

[trudij]

Id have him at Bristol Uni in the next few days,being thoroughly checked over (imo they are just as good there than at Rossdales - and its 5hr nearer!!) and treadmilled etc, and providing he got a clean bill of health, crack on, put yesterday behind me and see what can be done. theres another 4/5 weeks yet - and with a clean bill of health, that should be plenty now hes had a run.
You cant argue with the fact that something had gone wrong with him to make him so ill, but quite a lot of thoroughbreds have heart murmers,fibrilation,arrythmia and other "trouble", but the vets at Newmarket (who are among the best in the world) gave him a clean bill of health,you have to accept that.There are ways to treat them - we do it at work, but there are no guarantees - if they are bad enough to need treating (which he wasnt!) they recover well but it always comes back eventually.
If its still causing trouble - you have two choices, you either try treating it again,put him away and leave it another year (lets not forget how young he is!!) or you retire him.

Im slightly more worried about An Accordian to be honest - that didnt strike me as being a usual run from him at all.....

 

[Diminuendo]

Train him hard for the Gold Cup.

 

[Melendez]

The fences at Kempton are no closer together than they are anywhere else.

Maybe not, but they run towards you occasionally to try and catch you out.

 

[redhead]

Maybe not, but they run towards you occasionally to try and catch you out.

Blimey, Melendez, what were you smoking before you quit?! :lol:

I've mentioned on another thread that I was concerned about Denman being a stuffy horse who needed 3 races to get fully fit last year and was still blowing hard after winning the Aon.

He didn't look the same horse yesterday - physically or mentally - and going round the home turn was blowing like a bellows. I also got the impression that Ruby is not the jockey for him.

Providing all is well this morning they have a lot of work to do if he is going to be fully fit for Cheltenham.

 

[Cruella]

If, after the race, PFN had done his usual bullish bullsh!t along the lines of "we haven't been hard on him, we've left plenty to work on, shame his unbeaten chase record has gone but the Gold Cup is the priority" then I would agree with those who've said he'll come on for the race, he wasn't at full fitness yesterday etc. But he didn't, and he wasn't simply moody and crabby like he sometimes is when a hotpot gets beat; at one point he could barely get any words out because he seemed genuinely bewildered, and he admitted that last season's GC had taken a lot out of the horse and there's a possibility he would never match that performance again, and while he would improve it would only be by a small amount. I've never seen him so downbeat in a post-race interview, and I got the impression that what he was saying wasn't his usual sound-bitey media flannel, but the actual truth.

If Denman were mine, I don't know what I would be doing with him other than a lot of head-scratching, but given that the implication is that the hard race in last year's GC may have caused or contributed to his heart problem, I don't know if I could justify potentially subjecting him to another such race at Cheltenham on the back of yesterday's display.

 

[endevour269]

given his problem i would be scared stiff to run him at gold cup pace,p nicolls said yesterday in post race interview with ruk that he could not get him much fitter and he would have to improve,something he said more than once,and i have a feeling he did not expect to be saying that after the race,personally i would retire the big horse but i am a softy as far as animals are concerned.

 

[redhead]

If it's really hard to retain one, and even harder to regain one, isn't it even harder to win won having been beaten in one previously like Neptunes or Exotic Dancer?

The whole Denman thing has reminded me of a famous quote by the great screenwriter William Goldman: 'Nobody knows anything'.

The Fellow got beaten twice before winning his, although he beat himself on the second occasion by taking a long look at the last - all but pulling up before Kondrat kicked him into it.