Gold Cup 2009 (was: Denman)

However, yesterday morning the champion trainer revealed Kauto Star had been suffering from a minor foot infection - that won't rule him out of Cheltenham.
"When he was lame we weren't sure what it was, but we thought he might have injured a fetlock," Nicholls said last night.
"But we X-rayed it and it was fine, and when we got him home, head lad Clifford Baker and I were confident we knew what it was.
"As we took his shoe off that instantly relieved him a bit, so we thought that was what the problem was.
"It's basically pus in his foot, and once the vet had released that he was virtually sound.
"It was a bit scary. I don't think anyone slept here last night and I was almost afraid to go in this morning to find out what was wrong!
"We were fairly confident it was something simple like that but it's a huge relief - I'm absolutely chuffed."
 
EC1 said:
Since coming to this country he has made 21 mistakes..I counted not fluents as well in that

RH = 7 mistakes
LH = 14 mistakes

He has run 10 times RH = 0.7 mistakes per race
He has run 7 times LH = 2.0 mistakes per race
He has run 3 times at Cheltenham and made 9 errors = 3.0 mistakes per race.

I think he makes more mistakes going left handed Gareth...and he certainly makes more at Cheltenham than anywhere else
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Basing it on actual fences jumped, and including "not fluents", he has an error rate almost 4 times higher at Cheltenham than everywhere else put together. But given that around a third of all of his jumping errors recorded in the comments in running occurred in last year's Gold Cup, that's probably not too surprising.

Away from there, it's much of a muchness. Oh, and the comments record Sam Thomas directing him into the upright of a fence at Haydock as a "mistake" which is a tad unfair...
 
Denman is a fine horse Halmahera. I just don't believe his A game beats Kauto's A game.

I don't think we've had chance to prove that theory and I'm not sure we ever will.

Beyond that it is all about opinions.

KS nutter.
 
I'm probably interpolating things I'd been told into what was generally know or which could be spoken of with impunity :D so who knows any more what the real situation was. I only know we didn't see the 'real KS' in the Gold Cup - and said so at the time (vociferously and more than once LOL). I also got a number of emails following up various conversations (I was in Lambourn for all that Cheltenham btw) giving me 'further and better particulars' in strictest confidence.

I'm very much in the Betsmate camp here - another KS nutter; and like him all I'd really love to see is a totally fit and 'up for it' KS and Deman going head to head - but I doubt we ever shall now. A great sadness


Anyway - about Denman and his heart. Just to show that I'm not talking complete bollocks, I've found a few articles on Equine Atrial Fibrillation which make the various kinds of AF and their treatment - and its possible outcomes and consequences - a bit clearer.


Atrial Fibrillation in equines:
http://www.tceh.co.uk/news.htm

Some technical stuff on the various types of AF:
http://www.tufts.edu/vet/sports/cardiac.html

Power-point presentation regarding heart problems in horses.
rover.vetmed.lsu.edu/student/2009/Equine%20CardiologyI.ppt
In case you can't open it (needs powerpoint), it makes three things clear:

1) Recurrence is more likely in some cases than others, but can NEVER be ruled out even in cases with a 95% prognosis for full recovery
2) Testing for actual recurrence is problematical, since almost all horses with an intermittent AF problem will only manifest symptoms when under maximum (or near-max) pressure at excercise. So you can't really tell how successful the treatment has been until you put the horse to the acid test of being under racing pressure again
3) The drug of choice, and with which Denman was treated, is Quindine. It can only be employed three times and it's pretty toxic; one inevitable consequence is severe loss of condition. Another of its common side-effects in horses is *depression*

Horse & Hound forum - some interesting posts with varied experience:
http://www.horseandhound.co.uk/forums/showflat.php/Cat/0/Number/3891388/Main/3880604/

Trainer Magazine has an article on the equine heart in the December issue, but it's not all available online for free (I'll be able to read it at the weekend I hope). It has toher articles on AF as well btw
http://www.trainermagazine.com/euro...icleid=98&cntnt01origid=15&cntnt01returnid=27
 
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Headstrong said:
I had it on the word of three different people in a position to know, that KS was 'not himself' before the race; that he didn't eat up and was pacing his box, both before *and* after the Gold Cup; and that he was very off colour for a while after he got back to Ditcheat. Anyone who thinks he was beaten purely 'on merit' in the GC is imo fooling themselves. As I said at the time, I knew he was beat halfway round the first circuit. And I understand that staff (INC at the Cheltenham stables) were quite forcibly told not to discuss nor to divulge anything about the horse post-race.
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In those circumstances, I find it truly remarkable that the horse subsequently turned up at Aintree.
 
ItalianStallion said:
SteveM - Do you feel a the direction of the course would really matter with the quallity of Denman? maybe to a quirky class 5 chaser?
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While I would think he is probably better going left-handed, I do not believe that going the other way accounted for his showing at the weekend. I'm not sure it even contributed. I do believe he is much less suited by Kempton than Cheltenham, but he was beaten too far and looked too lacklustre for it to have been that.
 
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Headstrong said:
As I said at the time, I knew he was beat halfway round the first circuit.
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Would you have kept on saying it if Denman had just that bit more tired up the hill and KS had caught him? The horse ran to within ten pounds of his best form at Kempton. That would be nigh on impossible if he `wasn`t right`
 
Warbler said:
Not quite true I believe? I think that conversation was about a week post Ascot? In any event I was in the Denman camp, as indeed were a few others (passionately) - we won - end of. But there are some of us revising opinions now, why wouldn't we?
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Nope; the discussion was obviously sparked by news of the Ascot injury, which came to light on the same day, which was the 16th of February last year.
 
Euronymous said:
Would you have kept on saying it if Denman had just that bit more tired up the hill and KS had caught him? The horse ran to within ten pounds of his best form at Kempton. That would be nigh on impossible if he `wasn`t right`
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It would (for you) be like Dubai Millennium struggling for pace early on in a race yet still winning by a big distance. Kauto Star but in a respectable showing but in absolutely no way did he show any of his usual flare or class.
 
Galileo said:
Kauto Star but in a respectable showing but in absolutely no way did he show any of his usual flare or class.
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No doubt, but i`m inclined to blame the course and ground as much as any interruption in his preparation. For me I don`t think the horse is capable of running anywhere near mid 180s at Cheltenham. Of course he`s still quite capable of winning the Gold Cup running up to ten pounds below his best but I wouldn`t take too short a price about it.
 
Euronymous said:
No doubt, but i`m inclined to blame the course and ground as much as any interruption in his preparation. For me I don`t think the horse is capable of running anywhere near mid 180s at Cheltenham. Of course he`s still quite capable of winning the Gold Cup running up to ten pounds below his best but I wouldn`t take too short a price about it.
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Kauto travelled like a dream in his first Gold Cup run despite not winning that impressively at the end. The ground might have played a part last year.
 
Euronymous said:
Would you have kept on saying it if Denman had just that bit more tired up the hill and KS had caught him? The horse ran to within ten pounds of his best form at Kempton. That would be nigh on impossible if he `wasn`t right`
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Yes I would have said...! I was sitting next to Al watching the GC, and turned to him and said KS was beat very early on. I didn't enjoy watching the race at all because I could see KS wasn't right so it was not going to be a 'fair comparison - and I knew what the aftermath would be too in the pro-Denman camp!!

I was amazed KS got so close in the end ... that showed his courage and class imo. But he didn't give his running that day and NEVER looked happy, as he had the previous year. I felt quite sick watching it actually, and retired to the kitchen sink afterwards LOL

This is not to diss Denman who is also a fantastic horse in his own right, that goes without saying.
I'm just talking about THAT RACE and things I've been told 'around it', as well as what I (and others) saw on the day
 
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Thank you Rory and Gearoid for finding the relevant information since if I post it, it is wrong. Headstrong, I'd be very careful if I were you of continually stating on a public forum that Kauto Star was injured in last year's Gold Cup and shouldn't have run, before telling everyone you have secret information from inside that you cannot divulge. Maybe you'd like to ask Paul Nicholls to join the forum to let us into the secret as well, next time you see him in the WE, or the PR.
 
Galileo said:
Kauto travelled like a dream in his first Gold Cup run despite not winning that impressively at the end. The ground might have played a part last year.
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It should be said that analysis was put out at the time in the Post saying that Kauto Star had actually ran to a higher rating against Denman than when he won the year before.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Basing it on actual fences jumped, and including "not fluents", he has an error rate almost 4 times higher at Cheltenham than everywhere else put together. But given that around a third of all of his jumping errors recorded in the comments in running occurred in last year's Gold Cup, that's probably not too surprising.

Away from there, it's much of a muchness. Oh, and the comments record Sam Thomas directing him into the upright of a fence at Haydock as a "mistake" which is a tad unfair...
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The fact that lots were in the GC last year has little relevance Gareth..but lots of relevance towards the LH argument...on a simple basis they were all made on a LH track:)

I'm finding your response there a bit weak for you :)...I think you like those stats..I think you think they have some relevance.

just pm me if I am right...you don't need to be seen to be agreeing with me on here :D

I've always found if you are seen getting on with the village idiot and agreeing with them...then most people will judge you as the village idiot as well :lol:
 
SteveM said:
It should be said that analysis was put out at the time in the Post saying that Kauto Star had actually ran to a higher rating against Denman than when he won the year before.
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Of course they did, the race was hyped up so much that once Kauto or Denman won the race (virtually regardless of what they beat) the race was guaranteed to be over rated.

My point about him travelling well in his Gold Cup (that he won) was pointing out that the track itself did not affect him.
 
thing is Gal he isn't exactly the same horse as he was then..he is a bit older and horses find things they are comfortable with doing like we do..he is such a great animal at kempton...even this year when many thought he had gone at the game

he is such a similar type to Dessie with his superb displays at Kempton..Dessie managed the GC once...I do believe KS will also only manage that...but I can easily see him doing 4 KG's if looked after right
 
Galileo said:
Of course they did, the race was hyped up so much that once Kauto or Denman won the race (virtually regardless of what they beat) the race was guaranteed to be over rated.

My point about him travelling well in his Gold Cup (that he won) was pointing out that the track itself did not affect him.
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I think the race actually exceeded its hype. Denman was awe-inspiring that day. Kauto ran to 175 when winning the Gold Cup and 179 when finishing behind Denman. However, at Kempton Kauto has run to 184, 184 and 180 (very similar to the ratings that Desert Orchid was able to achieve at Kempton) – and DO was only able to achieve 171 in his Gold Cup victory.
Seems pretty conclusive that EC1 is right about this. Cheltenham and Kempton are two different courses and suit different types (as I believe I maintained before last year’s Gold Cup).
 
You have Denman's Gold Cup rated a half-stone too high imo, SteveM. There is no way that Neptune Collonges has run to a rating of 178/179, imo.

I've got Kauto Star running to the same mark in both Gold Cup's - 172.
 
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