Gold Cup 2009 (was: Denman)

trackside528 said:
Not sure, Desert Orchid. Does the argument not run that it was the punishing fractions through the middle sections of the Gold Cup that supposedly did for Kauto Star?

Not an argument I particularly subscribe to by the way.
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I'm not convinced Kauto Star was ever going as well as usual last year and I was genuinely surprised he ended up second. I thought it stamped him as a creature of character and guts. He's since come out and run to a lifetime peak.

However, there remains the strong possibility that the punishing fractions through the middle sections of the race have done for Denman.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm not convinced Kauto Star was ever going as well as usual last year and I was genuinely surprised he ended up second. I thought it stamped him as a creature of character and guts. He's since come out and run to a lifetime peak.

However, there remains the strong possibility that the punishing fractions through the middle sections of the race have done for Denman.
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Kauto Star was put under considerable pressure by Denman last year, which exposed the picky flaws in his jumping. The fact that Kauto ran to a better rating than when he won suggests he was not below par. I’d agree that Denman gave much in the race (although I didn’t see him as tying up as such in the race itself). I would agree the sectionals were punishing though and appear to have left more of a mark on Denman than Kauto.
 
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I know jockey evidence can be a little unreliable but Ruby did make the point I think the day after that KS was never travelling as he can even after the first circuit and that although they were going very quick for a 3m 2f chase they weren't going as fast as in the Tingle Creek .
 
Ardross said:
I know jockey evidence can be a little unreliable but Ruby did make the point I think the day after that KS was never travelling as he can even after the first circuit and that although they were going very quick for a 3m 2f chase they weren't going as fast as in the Tingle Creek .
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But how fast has Kauto ever gone around Cheltenham?

The only race he ran there over 2 miles (correct me if I'm wrong) was the Champion Chase in which he fell.

So could it be that when asked to race at a proper pace round Cheltenham he is always going to be found out?

I should point out that I also agree Kauto wasn't quite right last year in the Gold Cup, and would strongly expect a better run from him this year no matter what shape Denman turns up in. But the above is worth considering.
 
Flagship uberalles said:
But how fast has Kauto ever gone around Cheltenham?

The only race he ran there over 2 miles (correct me if I'm wrong) was the Champion Chase in which he fell.

So could it be that when asked to race at a proper pace round Cheltenham he is always going to be found out?

I should point out that I also agree Kauto wasn't quite right last year in the Gold Cup, and would strongly expect a better run from him this year no matter what shape Denman turns up in. But the above is worth considering.
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Did Kauto Star really travel faster in the Gold Cup on softish ground than say in any of his King Georges? Tingle Creek? Not to mention his other races. I think not...certainly when you think of how the likes of Neptune Collonges lead until the 12th fence (Kauto was making mistakes and not travelling well before then).
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I'm not convinced Kauto Star was ever going as well as usual last year and I was genuinely surprised he ended up second. I thought it stamped him as a creature of character and guts.
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I thought so, too and I was inclined to think so all the more after his run a few weeks later at Aintree. He was a tired horse then, yet was still only nailed on the line.

Just looking back at the RP comments about Kauto in the Gold Cup last year,

"disputing 3rd, not fluent 7th, tracked leading duo from 8th, not fluent 11th, hit 13th, staying on when not fluent 17th and next, hit 4 out, chased winner after 3 out but no impression, held when mistake at last but still ran on gamely."

No the wonder I found it hard to watch. A catalogue of errors. As Ruby said after the race, any other horse and he probably would have been beaten a distance.
 
Kauto last year was never travelling in the GC and made a bad error very early in the race, and hsi jumping was generally sketchy - long BEFORE he was put under pressure by Denman (and that's why I too found it hard to watch the race as it was clear very early what the result would be).

Yet the Denman camp still persisit in blaming KS's lacklustre effort on the 'pressure' he was put under. The race itself puts horses under pressure; and for whatever reason, he did not give his running FROM THE START.

I'm afraid I take speed comparisions between years with a bit of a pinch of salt - running rails and all that - I prefer to trust the evidence of my own eyes (and those of a lot of very experienced others, and the words of the jockey, in this case). Whether KS topped his previous figure in coming 2nd due to a faster run race tells us nothing about his 'manner' of running
 
Question: Does Kauto make more mistakes when the pace of the race is fast?

Defining a fast pace as one where the Racing Post have awarded the winner of the race a Topspeed figure within a stone of their Racing Post Rating:

Code: 
[b]Pace	Fences	Mistakes	Average	MoE	Range	[/b]
Slow	197	7		0.0355	0.0259	[0.0097,0.0614]
Fast	102	14		0.1373	0.0668	[0.0705,0.2040]

The results lie outside the margin of error (calculated for a confidence level of 95%).

Conclusion: Kauto's rate of mistakes increases when the pace of the race is fast.
 
A) That's probably true of most horses
B) Does a mistake early in a 3 mile fast race not = a slow 2 mile race mistake?
 
Headstrong said:
Kauto last year was never travelling in the GC and made a bad error very early in the race, and hsi jumping was generally sketchy - long BEFORE he was put under pressure by Denman (and that's why I too found it hard to watch the race as it was clear very early what the result would be).
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No he didn't make a bad error early in the race; he hacked around the first circuit popping away quite happily with no pressure applied but was low at the two fences in the straight at the end of a circuit, from which point it became clear that Denman was the likelier to win.
 
Rory I never took my eyes off him - and know not only what I saw but what I said to people at the table.
 
B) Does a mistake early in a 3 mile fast race not = a slow 2 mile race mistake?
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As there's no lower bound to how slow a race can be, probably not in the majority of cases.

In any case, restricting the sample to races at 3m+, the result still holds.

As to whether that's true of most horses, to enough of a degree to exceed the margin of error, please feel free to find out :)
 
Two people can watch the same horse in the same race and see different things happening the same way two people can look at the very same horse in a parade ring and one thinks it is too fat and the other thinks it's too thin. It happens.

Speaking to some people I often wonder when we are discussing the performance of a particular horse or a jockey whether we were actually watching the same race.:confused:
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Question: Does Kauto make more mistakes when the pace of the race is fast?

Defining a fast pace as one where the Racing Post have awarded the winner of the race a Topspeed figure within a stone of their Racing Post Rating:

Code: 
[B]Pace    Fences    Mistakes    Average    MoE    Range    [/B]
Slow    197    7        0.0355    0.0259    [0.0097,0.0614]
Fast    102    14        0.1373    0.0668    [0.0705,0.2040]

The results lie outside the margin of error (calculated for a confidence level of 95%).

Conclusion: Kauto's rate of mistakes increases when the pace of the race is fast.
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now if I had posted that you would be pouring ridicule on me Gareth.

a tingle creek winner that is fazed by a 3 mile pace???

each to their own
 
Shadow Leader said:
It all sounds a bit like Denman's last fence blunder at Kempton that only one person saw, to me.
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I don't think you are comparing like with like - so only Headstrong has spotted that " blunder " but there are many who did not think KS was ever really travelling last March .
 
Nor did anyone else bar Headstrong spot the alleged bad error Kauto Star made early on in last year's Gold Cup....seems like for like to me. Is there some kind of parallell universe existence going on where only Headstrong sees or hears certain things?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Isn't that the case with almost any horse, though?
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While it stands to reason that any horse will be more prone to error the more pressure they are put under, Kauto Star is so rarely put under pressure that he can usually correct his bad habits and imperfect tendencies... I think what Gareth is getting at is that the ratio of pressure to mistakes is high in Kauto Star
 
Gareth Flynn said:
I'll add paranoia to the list... :rolleyes:
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no mate..you make extra effort in analysing my posts..normally to rubbish them...whereas you let all sorts of other stuff pass without comment from other people

you will get away with it on here of course as there seems to be a pissing into the same pot mentality at play.

i don't mind good constructive posts Gareth..some of yours are very good..including the one you think I dismissed

unfortunately when I responded to your post the other day..I was in a hurry as I was posting from work whilst on my lunch..check the ip address if you think me a liar

so you may have read my post as dismissive ..when in fact I were in a hurry

if you had come back with a post that weren't as off hand I would have explained that when I got home

you are very quick to talk down in my direction though

i don't need to be paranoid to be able to read that in your responses..including the above one..am I imagining you are talking to me like a lesser being?..I don't think so.

I don't really give a toss whether folk think KS or any horse is better this way round or that tbh..if people want to back bad value fav's they will do..no matter what you I or anyone posts on messageboards

what i can't do with is people in cliques that look down on those they percieve to be outsiide that clique

unfortunately it may seem to you that this board is welcoming for those posting ...but on many occasions it isn't

I don't want to be falling out over this..but I will pass my opinion on it
 
EC1,

your opinions, especially where different to others, are more than welcome here. The problem, as pointed out before is that you seem to be overanalysing the response you get (or indeed don't get) to your posts. The way you follow this up may seem to you to be a way of laughing off a lack of interest or opposition to your views, but it undeniably comes across to others as an attempt to needle them. You need to be able to let your opinions to be known without a desire for those views to be endorsed in able to enjoy the forum. Nobody wants to have an exchange of views turn into a bitchfest, and I think that's part of what stops them engaging you in discussion.

There isn't a mentality of cliqueyness here per se, but every forum has its own personality and members tend to want to preserve the status quo. If you don't appear to be attempting to disrupt the equilibrium of the forum, then you will get accepted, but you do constantly refer to an "us and them" mentality, and as long as you identify yourself as an outsider, then you will be treated with a degree of coolness.
 
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