I've had a look at the history of compression for the last three years. I gave up at that point as it wasn't doing anything to support O'Leary's claim.
First five top-weights (finishing order):
OR1 – before GN weights
OR2 – for GN
Year | Horse | OR1 | OR2 | Diff |
2019 | Tiger Roll | 159 | 159 | 0 |
| Anibale Fly | 164 | 164 | 0 |
| Outlander | 159 | 158 | -1 |
| Valtor | 160 | 160 | 0 |
| Don Poli | 157 | 157 | 0 |
2018 | Anibale Fly | 159 | 159 | 0 |
| Valseur Lido | 160 | 158 | -2* |
| Blaklion | 161 | 161 | 0 |
| The Last Samuri | 159 | 159 | 0 |
2017 | The Last Samuri | 161 | 161 | 0 |
| Saphir Du Rheu | 156 | 156 | 0 |
| More Of That | 157 | 157 | 0 |
| Perfect Candidate | 156 | 156 | 0 |
| Shantou Flyer | 156 | 156 | 0 |
| | | | |
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* you could argue that Valseur Lido’s mark was already declining as the drop continued after Aintree.
These figures tell us that there really hasn't been any compression in the weights but I then realised that maybe it was because the original top-weights opted out along the way. The only one I could think of was Bristol De Mai so I checked him:
I didn't have a note of the previous year's original entries but found the weights at the first declaration stage. Top weight then was Minella Rocco:
So, on one hand, BDM was allowed 5lbs and still didn't run but he had the Gold Cup on his agenda. Minella Rocco had been leading at the last in the Irish Gold Cup when he fell yet he wasn't given any allowance.
The only big difference I can see is that BDM was rated very highly by comparison. At 172, it's possible Tiger Roll will be 'allowed' 3 or 4lbs but I can't see him being allowed any more than that. I think he won off 159 last year.
Magic Of Light should, in fairness, be allowed at least a pound relative to him to give her a fair chance. She went up 8lbs for finishing second last year to 159. If the handicapper wants to give her the same chance as Tiger Roll, he'll probably allow her a pound or two as you could argue the winner was idling late on last year, and I don't think he'll do that so I think she'll be off the same mark. That in turn would reduce TR's 'allowance'.
Either way, we'll find out tomorrow and not everybody is going to be pleased.
I would have no issue with TR getting in off 170 or 169 - there might be a psychological angle to 169 - but if the O'Leary's decide not to run him I'd say it's their loss more than anyone else's.
I hope the handicapper doesn't blink.