Grand National 2020

Desert Orchid said:
I'm not so sure.

O'Leary can have all the figures in his head that he wants but there's no way Tiger Roll gets in off less than 170. There may be some slight compression of the weights - we don't know if DGH will take the same approach as Phil Smith in that regard - but he won't be asked to carry any more than 11-10 so anything rated about 145 or lower will be out of the weights and that could involve several runners.

Tiger Roll is a bit of a freak, like Red Rum, who clearly relishes the challenge in the race and would probably still be competitive off his rating.

Also, O'Leary comes across as a self-serving, greedy, ruthless, tight-fisted, narcissistic arsehole who is highly unlikely to pass up the chance to win a race worth a million pounds. He'll also probably have close to half the runners in it to stack the odds in his favour.
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Difference is Mo, when Red Rum was lumping the big weight I’d guess that many of the opposition were out of the handicap.

That wont happen nowadays and as much as a freak he may be, I simply can’t see him giving weight to horses of the calibre of Native River et al
 
O’Leary would cut his own nose off to spite his own face.
If he doesn’t like Tiger on 170 plus I can almost guarantee he won’t go.

Did he not have 12 runners in it the year Rule The World won?
 
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I think O'Leary will run tiger roll. However it won't be for the opportunity to win a million pounds. It has always been for the glory. Has been obvious that they are not a gambling operation, unlike some, and for me steers clear of the narcissism attributed to him in business on the racecourse. Often going out of his way to underplay his horses' and his achievements. he has also been happy to retire horses like don cossack and rule the world when in the horses best interest rather than persisting hope against hope. And finally unlike many of nh heroes is at least a tax resident in his country. I hope he wins the million. He just likes the drama and divilment in the run up
 
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wilsonl said:
Difference is Mo, when Red Rum was lumping the big weight I’d guess that many of the opposition were out of the handicap.

That wont happen nowadays and as much as a freak he may be, I simply can’t see him giving weight to horses of the calibre of Native River et al
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I'm not sure they were out of the handicap - did the weights go down to 9-7 back then? - but I'll check when I get my eyesight back. When they first met in the race, L'Escargot was trying to give Rummy 23lbs. Two years later Rummy was conceding 8lbs. To a former dual Gold Cup winner. Why wouldn't Tiger Roll be asked to give a pound or two to a one-time Gold Cup winner?

There's still only a very few horses who truly stay the National trip. A lot of potential contenders will be found out regardless of their rating.
 
How much will Tiger Roll be compressed for this we reckon then?

I’m going compressed 5 pounds and running off top weight 167. O’Learys will be on one even if they chucked him in at 160.
 
I think Tiger Roll is 1/20 to run. O'Leary is simply holding a gun to the new handicapper's head daring him to give him 170 and cost the race a 3 in a row bid. It's a classic double bluff.
 
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Slim said:
I think Tiger Roll is 1/20 to run. O'Leary is simply holding a gun to the new handicapper's head daring him to give him 170 and cost the race a 3 in a row bid. It's a classic double bluff.
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Could give him 160 I don’t think he’s winning, and that’s not to knock the horse. Kimberlite Candy and Cadmium my probable early picks. I’ll wait for decs and weights though.

People are certain they’ll keep him in, I’m not so sure.
Did he not withdraw half of his horses the other year cause they weren’t fairly handicapped in his opinion? Can’t be sure of the facts mind.
 
Here is what will happen. He will run on Sunday week in the Boyne Hurdle and will run like an unfit horse. They will cite injury setbacks and infer the horse is gone but they will consider giving him one more run at Cheltenham and rule out Aintree. The ball is in the handicappers court to entice them to run.
 
Slim said:
Here is what will happen. He will run on Sunday week in the Boyne Hurdle and will run like an unfit horse. They will cite injury setbacks and infer the horse is gone but they will consider giving him one more run at Cheltenham and rule out Aintree. The ball is in the handicappers court to entice them to run.
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Can they change the weights once announced?

Weights get announced Tuesday and the Boyne Hurdle isn’t till the Sunday after.
 
With Punchestown now not racing until Tuesday I assume their Grand National trial, due off at 4.25, is too late to be taken into consideration by Aintree handicapper as the weights are also published that day,albeit I think in the evening.
 
Grand National trial at Haydock Saturday.

My early fancy is Captain Chaos. Same mark as when second to Kimberlite Candy who has gone up 10lbs. Form looks good.
 
archie said:
They want 168.
170 is reasonable.
169? A pound or two either way makes no difference.
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Does it really matter what rating they give Tiger Roll, surely it's the relation to what the others are given that counts....164 carried top weight last year.

If they gave him 168 and then awarded Bristol De Mai say 165, have they not effectively given Tiger 173?
 
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Maxbet said:
Does it really matter what rating they give Tiger Roll, surely it's the relation to what the others are given that counts....164 carried top weight last year.

If they gave him 168 and then awarded Bristol De Mai say 165, have they not effectively given Tiger 173?
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I've been saying as much for long enough, Maxbet, but the example you offer isn't, I would suggest, realistic. Tiger Roll and BDM are currently 171 and 170 respectively. They might get in off 168 and 167 respectively but I don't see the handicapper widening the differential.

Personally, I think they'll be on 170 and 169 but I've been known to be wrong, as you know. :)
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've been saying as much for long enough, Maxbet, but the example you offer isn't, I would suggest, realistic. Tiger Roll and BDM are currently 171 and 170 respectively. They might get in off 168 and 167 respectively but I don't see the handicapper widening the differential.

Personally, I think they'll be on 170 and 169 but I've been known to be wrong, as you know. :)
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My point isn't what they will give them Dessie, more to do with how he can manipulate it....Do you think O'leary would be happy if they Gave Tiger Roll 162 but top weight.
I personally think he has to be given top weight, and he that will be given top weight.
 
I think they know he’ll be given top weight, but it’s how much he’s compressed to those in behind.

Magic of Light for example, 158.

Would you rather be given 172 and be giving Magic of Light a stone. Or be compressed to say 167 and be giving 9 pounds, providing everything else stays similar.

Their last statement regarding the weights they was talking about how much some of the top horses had been compressed in the past.
 
This excerpt from Greg Wood's article in today's Guardian [online]:

[FONT=&quot]Eddie O’Leary’s most recent, none-too-subtle nudge was to remind the handicapper that the top weight in the race has been “compressed” – or let off, in plain terms – by “8lb on average for the past 10 years”. He added: “I have a figure in my head but I’m not going to mention it. If he hits that figure, he runs, and if he doesn’t, he won’t be running.”[/FONT]
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I think O'Leary is wrong in his assertion - I'll check later today - as I'd have thought, off the top of my head that the 8lbs figure he claims strikes me as more of an aggregate than an average.
 
I've had a look at the history of compression for the last three years. I gave up at that point as it wasn't doing anything to support O'Leary's claim.

First five top-weights (finishing order):

OR1 – before GN weights
OR2 – for GN

YearHorseOR1OR2Diff
2019Tiger Roll1591590
Anibale Fly1641640
Outlander159158-1
Valtor1601600
Don Poli1571570
2018Anibale Fly1591590
Valseur Lido160158-2*
Blaklion1611610
The Last Samuri1591590
2017The Last Samuri1611610
Saphir Du Rheu1561560
More Of That1571570
Perfect Candidate1561560
Shantou Flyer1561560

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* you could argue that Valseur Lido’s mark was already declining as the drop continued after Aintree.

These figures tell us that there really hasn't been any compression in the weights but I then realised that maybe it was because the original top-weights opted out along the way. The only one I could think of was Bristol De Mai so I checked him:

2019173165-5

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I didn't have a note of the previous year's original entries but found the weights at the first declaration stage. Top weight then was Minella Rocco:

20181621620

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So, on one hand, BDM was allowed 5lbs and still didn't run but he had the Gold Cup on his agenda. Minella Rocco had been leading at the last in the Irish Gold Cup when he fell yet he wasn't given any allowance.

The only big difference I can see is that BDM was rated very highly by comparison. At 172, it's possible Tiger Roll will be 'allowed' 3 or 4lbs but I can't see him being allowed any more than that. I think he won off 159 last year.

Magic Of Light should, in fairness, be allowed at least a pound relative to him to give her a fair chance. She went up 8lbs for finishing second last year to 159. If the handicapper wants to give her the same chance as Tiger Roll, he'll probably allow her a pound or two as you could argue the winner was idling late on last year, and I don't think he'll do that so I think she'll be off the same mark. That in turn would reduce TR's 'allowance'.

Either way, we'll find out tomorrow and not everybody is going to be pleased.

I would have no issue with TR getting in off 170 or 169 - there might be a psychological angle to 169 - but if the O'Leary's decide not to run him I'd say it's their loss more than anyone else's.

I hope the handicapper doesn't blink.
 
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tiggers1972 said:
Don't know why they muck about, just using the official BHA rating and be done with it.
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90+% of the time they do. Usually only runners with better form over the fences than anywhere else or in the race itself, or very high class horses like Bristol De Mai are considered for special treatment. The ones with form in the race or over the fences can be given a higher mark although in the case of those who might be in danger of not making the cut it is spun as giving them a better chance of doing so. I think it was the trainer of Highland Lodge a few years back who asked for this to happen. He was rated something like 10lbs higher in the National than on park courses.
 
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Your 2019 figures show the actual field that ran, not the full picture Do.
When they were published Bristol De Mai was given 168....5Lb's below his official....he was pulled out compounding the compression.
 
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