Grand National 2020

The first thing that struck me was how far down near 11-0 a lot of good horses are.

If all these good horses stand their ground it really could be a very high class renewal.
 
Agreed DO. I like Kimberlite Candy but could finish last just as easily as first.

No stand out handicapped horse for me atm. Better luck picking the winner out in a tombola
 
I decided to check back through my files to see how my initial thought stacked up in reality:

These are the ratings of the first horse in the respective lists set to carry 11-0 and where they stood in the order of the weights.

I 'm not sure the figures will have much relevance in the big scheme of things but was just curious.

As far as I can tell the figures are based on the original weights. Wherre I have doubts I've noted accordingly.


<tbody>
[TD="align: center"]Year[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Rating[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Pos[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Notes[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]2020[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]160[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]10[SUP]th[/SUP][/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: center"]2019[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]159[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]9[SUP]th[/SUP][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[SUP]st[/SUP] dec?[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]2018[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]152[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]12[SUP]th[/SUP][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2[SUP]nd[/SUP] dec?[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]2017[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]156[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]13[SUP]th[/SUP][/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: center"]2016[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]155[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]17[SUP]th[/SUP][/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: center"]2015[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]151[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]17[SUP]th[/SUP][/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: center"]2014[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]151[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]15[SUP]th[/SUP][/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: center"]2013[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]152[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]14[SUP]th[/SUP][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]?[/TD]

</tbody>

That's as far back as my National weights files go.

When was the £1m pot first offered? Last year or the year before?
 
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I've taken Anibale Fly at 28/1 NRNB.

He has a grand record in the race and is 13lbs better off with Tiger Roll from last year when he was ridden quite negatively and didn't have the best of passages.

I accept he might end up not being JP's main hope but he's got a bit of class too given his record in the Gold Cup.

So, Gold Cup class, has jumped 60 of these fences and gets in with a nice (at this stage) racing weight of 11-2.

I'll probably end up fancying something else a bit more nearer the time but I can see this one's price contracting in the weeks to come.
 
The plus this year is that Anibale Fly has been aimed at the race and will skip Cheltenham. His chance is definitely increased with Tiger Roll heading up the weights off 170. 11st 2lb is nice weight for a horse that lugged top weight an close to top weight the last two years and finished fourth and fifth not beaten too far.

My bets in this so far are One For Arthur 33/1, Anibale Fly 33/1, and Kimberlite Candy 20/1.

I'll definitely add a couple more too. Does anyone know if OK Corral and Definitely Red are intended runners?
 
OK Corral doesn't interest me at this stage as I'm not sure he's got the stamina.

I spent some time yesterday checking through Definitely Red but held off backing it for now. Considering it was only 8/1 for the Gold Cup a couple of years ago and its rating peaked at 167, it has to be a contender off 156.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I spent some time yesterday checking through Definitely Red but held off backing it for now. Considering it was only 8/1 for the Gold Cup a couple of years ago and its rating peaked at 167, it has to be a contender off 156.
Click to expand...

He went off 10/1 2nd fav in One For Arthurs race, carried 10-12 of a mark of 149 and he was 8 years old, he's 11 now... he was travelling just behind the leaders when badly hampered at Becher's by the fall of The Young Master, Jockey was pelted into the air and he pulled him up after jumping the next.
 
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Maxbet said:
He went off 10/1 2nd fav in One For Arthurs race, carried 10-12 of a mark of 149 and he was 8 years old, he's 11 now... he was travelling just behind the leaders when badly hampered at Becher's by the fall of The Young Master, Jockey was pelted into the air and he pulled him up after jumping the next.
Click to expand...


Yes, I was on him that year at 20/1.
 
I'll remember last year for the year nothing fancied bar the winner striking a blow. It really has become a very niche race.
 
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Tiger Roll will definitely run in the Randox Health Grand National according to Gigginstown racing manager Eddie O'Leary, provided everything goes to plan in his upcoming assignments at Navan and Cheltenham
 
I wouldn't put it past the contrary bastert to lay it to buggery over the next six weeks prior to pulling it out.
 
They’ve said he’ll need the run on Sunday. Probably said that last year too when he won at 25/1 IIRC


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50/1 to win all three is poor. Absolutely no chance on Sunday. Just for fitness. I did say that last year though
 
Ballyoptic raised 6lbs for Saturday's win. That strikes me as quite lenient. Still, he'll be that much well in come the day unless the handicapper reviews the figure on the basis of subsequent form.

I'm okay with that.
 
Just watched last year's race a couple of times.

Magic Of Light made at least two serious mistakes, especially the one at the last where she lost her momentum and arguably the race. Although she was beaten a few lengths at the line, I'd argue that a mistake of that nature at that stage of that race would have been very hard to recover from.

The other thing that caught my eye was the really bad ride One For Arthur got. I can only assume Fox was riding to instructions but he made up a colossal amount of ground at probably the defining section of the race, from the Canal Turn for the second time to just after the last fence. I imagine if anyone did sectional times for the race they'd give him a huge mark-up. There has to be a chance he's getting past it but I wonder if he was ridden then with this year in mind. I don't recall him being so far back the year he won and he was coming in last year of an extended absence through injury. I'll be backing him at some point but not just yet.

Anibale Fly was further back than ideal over the first few but wasn't too badly positioned from Becher's first time round.

I can't help thinking the pace probably wasn't strong. The first four finishers were prominent the whole way and the fourth, Walk In The Mill, has already come out and franked the form this season while Magic Of Light has shown her well-being over hurdles..

But the more I look at the finish the more impressed I am by One For Arthur's final mile.
 
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