I hope you don't mind me putting this up. I Hope everyone is well. Spent some time going over this, so hope it does well, but just my thoughts and opinions. Take care.
5.15 - The Grand Nation
Any Second Now
- Second off 8lb lower last season and the continuous rain will be in his favour. Confidence building win last time out despite running below par on figures. Needs a career best to win, but handicapper has not been harsh, and clearly proven over the fences, despite very few horses going on to win the National having placed in it and he has placed in the last two. 170 (+2)
Noble Yeats
- Last seasons winner and 19lb higher as a result. Second has an 11lb pull with him and whilst he has run okay in four of his five starts this season including a solid 4th in the Gold Cup, he is yet to figure above 170, and is now handicapped up to the hill. Hard to see him upholding last years win, based on the weight turnaround and may lack the pace needed off a higher weight. Clearly capable and consistent, he has to be respected, but I suspect something will prove better handicapped. 170 (+4)
Galvin
- Very honest staying chaser whose first run over the cross country fences last time was encouraging when chasing home Delta Work. Has just failed at the highest level in the past, but has matched his mark of 166 in many races over the last 2 years and comes into this in good form. Chances are these fences may well suit, but yet to ever run above 169 and therefore he just doesn't look well handicapped in a race of this magnitude. 169 (+3)
Fury Road
- Mark of 161 not unreasonable and respectable form at Grade 2 and Grade 1 level over the last two years. Stable knows what it takes to win this and has shown good speed in his races, but yet to prove he will be as effective over this longer trip. Dangerous to write off, but career best required and has more to prove than he has shown. 162 (+1)
The Big Dog
- Still in front when falling at Leopardstown last time out and that race was subsequently won by Galopin Des Champs who went on to win this years Gold Cup. Lightly enough raced to suggest we have not seen the best of him yet and solid 3rd in the Welsh National suggests stamina will not be a huge issue. Improved markedly this season securing wins off 140 and 148, before his Welsh National 3rd, and whilst a lot more is now required off 160, he suggested he could be ready for the step up to Grade 1 company last time and with a clear round he could be dangerous to dismiss, and whilst more is needed, he is not one I would be willing to rule out. 157 (-3)
Capodanno
- 3rd to Janidil at Gowran Park reads well and mark of 160 does not look harsh on the face of that. Impressive in Grade 1 win at Punchestown last season, and lightly raced this term suggesting this has always been the aim. Has stamina to prove, going beyond an extended 3m for the first time, but mark of 160 certainly doesn't shape like a ceiling for him. I think he is a massive player if he stays. 165 (+5)
Delta Work
- Unpenalised for his Cheltenham win over the cross country fences and put up a figure of 169 in the process. Has always looked a class act and seems to have found a new lease of life since going over the banks and hedges. 3rd off 1lb higher last season, albeit well held, he is 9lb and 20lb better off with the horses who finished in front of him that day, and if his last three runs are an indication that cross country racing has improved him, he could be well treated in this years renewal. Not fully convinced this 40 runner cavalry charge suits him as well as the cross country events, but undoubtedly 10lb ahead of the handicapper on his last run, and he is a very good jumper who has speed and stamina. Hard not to see him being involved and the one to beat on his Cheltenham run. 169 (+10)
Sam Brown
- Bolted up off 147 in an Aintree handicap last season, but form has dropped a lot since and shaped as a non stayer on only run over further than 3m in the past. Only ran to 144 last time and form has regressed this season. His 3rd to Bravemansgame on seasonal bow is his best form, and whilst a breathing operation may have helped, recent form and stamina limitations make him a risky proposition, and one I am happy to look past. 162 (+3)
Lifetime Ambition
- Largely consistent type who stays 3m well and jumps well. That said, he has never run above 153 and best form seems to be at an extended 2m 5f. Handicapper seems to have been very harsh with a mark of 158, and doesn't shape like a likely winner and I'm sure there are better handicapped horses in this line up. 153 (-5)
Carefully Selected
- Relished testing conditions when winning at Gowran off a mark of 147 and stuck his neck out gamely on that occasion. Held behind Kemboy next time out and has run to 154 on four occasions suggesting that this is about his accurate level of ability. Up 9lb for that Gowran win, and whilst conditions may suit, he requires a career best to land this and I think he is handicapped poorly as a result. 154 (-2)
Coko Beach
- Ran to 154 when winning last time out and is a horse who always seems to give his all, which bodes well for him. Well held 8th in this last season off a mark of 150, he is 5lb higher this year and whilst he has been in good form and has clearly improved, he looks to have been handed a harsh mark off 155, which makes him look poorly handicapped. Proven over the fences is a help, but I am far from convinced he is well treated on these terms. 154 (-1)
Longhouse Poet
- Hard to know what to expect given his figures this term have been rather erratic and practically walked over the line when winning last time in a very slow time. Have to go back to January 2022 to find a race where he figured above 150, and whilst he handles testing ground and jumps well, he is 10lb higher than his last handicap win, and doesn't for a minute look well treated here off 155 for me. 153 (-2)
Galliard Du Mesnil
- Created a good impression throughout this season before a slightly fortuitous win at Cheltenham when appearing to be booked for 3rd, before the leader falling 2 out and then the eventual 2nd coming to a stand still up the hill handed him the win. Hard not to be taken by his progressive profile, but shapes as an out and out stayer and it's surprising connections changed their tact from the Irish National which was his original aim. I question whether he has the tactical speed for this, as you don't want to get too far back, but he is a strong stayer and jumps well, and he is still improving as a novice. One of the rare Irish horses that looks ahead of his mark, but I worry he could get done for speed at a crucial stage. 159 (+4)
Darasso
- Mark of 154 doesn't look harsh at all, having run to 162 in the past but didn't totally excel over 3m earlier this season and best form is at 2m 4f. Stamina is therefore very much unproven and tendency to jump out to his right may not help him either. Possibly still well treated, but I think he would have been better suited to the Topham, and stamina is a huge question mark. If he stays, he is a huge player, but it's a big if. 162 (+8)
Le Milos
- Long been targeted at this race by Dan Skelton and is a very progressive chaser, who still looks very well handicapped. Hennessy winner at Newbury in November, he looked to blow up at Kelso last time having travelled like the best horse in the race and stride shortened after a mistake at the last, and I think he was deliberately left a little short on that occasion. Stable have spoken positively about him, and he is a solid stayer who has run between 155 and 157 on all three starts this season and mark of 152 looks very fair. Probably not stopped improving and handles conditions, he shapes like the ideal winner of this and stamina and jumping should not be an issue. A massive player and easily on the shortlist. 157 (+5)
Escaria Ten
- 1lb lower than when running in this last season and having travelled very well on that occasion, he folded tamely from 2 out, shaping like the trip was too far for him. Well handicapped on his Fairyhouse win prior to that run in this last season, but below par this season and stamina is a major concern. 159 (+8)
The Big Breakaway
- Massive chance on his Haydock 2nd and Welsh National 2nd this season and has always been a horse who has hinted the ability to win a big handicap and has been improving for the past 18 months. Figured 157 when 2nd in the Welsh National and mark of 151 suggests he is still nicely treated. Jumps well and handles any ground, as well as having proven stamina, but slightly disappointing that he faded very quickly at Cheltenham and was pulled up. Possibly needed that run, so not unreasonable to suggest he will strip fitter this time, but a poor run like that was far from a perfect prep. I still think he is a very well treated horse and if he takes to the fences, he has a chance, but I would have preferred to have seen a better run last time at Cheltenham. Application of blinkers is a slight concern. 157 (+6)
Cape Gentleman
- Hit and miss at his fences and whilst improved into a nice handicapper for previous connections, his two starts for new connections have been rather underwhelming. Heavy ground winner over 2m 4f, but yet to prove he can be as effective over this longer trip and mark of 149 looks harsh on the basis of his form over the last 12 months. Have to go back to October 21, to find a time he showed he could run to his current mark and I would be surprised if he was good enough, or stayed this trip. 152 (+3)
Roi Mage
- Finished 2nd to Longhouse Poet last time out, but the time of that race was incredibly slow and he just looks a one paced plodder to me. Seems to do it best when he can grind it out from the front and only once in his career has he figured above his mark of 149 and that came in a race where he got the run of things at Down Royal a year ago. A strong stayer who handles conditions, his jumping is also sound enough, but whilst I would not be surprised to see him plodding on home into one of the remote places, I doubt he is quick enough or well handicapped enough to win. 153 (+4)
Diol Ker
- Well held behind Coko Beach last time out and on both starts over 3m 4f, he has shaped like a non stayer. Still not filly exposed, so it could be a shade dangerous to write him off, but he needs to improve again and handicapper appears to have taken no chances. I would be surprised if he were good enough. 150 (+1) (156 hurdles)
A Wave Of The Sea
- Hard to weigh up as his best form does appear to be over considerably shorter, but has also ran well enough over 3m. This stamina test is a whole different proposition, and whilst he has figured 152 in the past, that was over 2m 1f. I am perplexed as he didn't not stay 3m when 4th to The Big Dog at Limerick, but stamina has to be taken on trust and I think it is probably too much an ask despite him possibly looking well treated off 147. 152 (+5)
Minella Trump
- Crazy to think he has only gone up 24lb in winning 9 of his last 11 starts and I wonder if the handicapper has a share in him, he's been that kind! Perth win rates well for me, and has an attitude where he just keeps finding and sees out 3m well enough to suggest he can be effective over longer trips and he clearly has a good battling attitude. last run was poor, but that was over shorter and back over hurdles and was clearly just a pipe opener for this having been off the track since last summer. Could still be well handicapped and if he takes to these fences and can prove effective in a bigger field, he could be dangerous for connections with a long standing tradition in this race. Looks big at 66/1 for me. 151 (+4)
Vanillier
- Trainers runners in premier handicaps have to be respected and ran to 148 when chasing home Kemboy last time. Handicapper unable to react to that having already allotted him 147 and he was already a low 150s hurdler. He is still lightly raced over fences and yard is very much one I respect. Stamina should not be an issue, but jumping has been rather nerve testing on occasions. Definitely looks one of the better treated horses in the race, and no surprise to see him run a big race with a clear round. 152 (+5)
Velvet Elvis
- Campaigned this season over shorter, but stayed 3m 5f in the 2022 Irish National, so stamina shouldn't be a real concern. Fairyhouse win, over just shy of 3m two starts back saw him post a figure of 149 and not disgraced when always outpaced behind Any Second Now, last time out. Pretty consistent and possibly still improving, he looks to have a shout at the weights on ground he relishes. 149 (+2)
Aint That A Shame
- Been well backed all week and now finds himself the market leader for Rachel Blackmore who is looking to land her second National. Shaped as a non stayer on only previous try beyond 3m, but form up to 3m is rock solid and won with a lot in hand last time out when running to 150. Stamina to prove up in trip now, but a progressive type who handles testing ground and jumps well, so you can see why the punters have latched on to him. I think he is a well treated horse, but I just question whether he has the stamina for this. 150 (+4)
Corach Rambler
- Back to back winner of the 3m handicap chase at Cheltenham and has been ridden with insane confidence in the past. Clearly a very useful horse, he ran to 160 for me at Cheltenham and therefore unpenalised off 146, he is undoubtedly about a stone ahead of the handicapper. Can chuck in a bad jump in his races which is a worry, but his Newbury 4th highlighted he was a well handicapped horse and his Cheltenham win was most impressive given how much he was given to do. Will be a brave route to ride him with that much confidence in this, so I hope he is ridden a little closer to the pace, but if his jumping holds up, there is no doubt he is the best handicapped horse in the race and he looks the sort of horse who will stay any trip. Yard have successfully won this in the past and could be a Grade 1 horse in a handicap in my opinion. Well in at the weights, for me he should be the favourite, but how he is ridden does scare me a little. On form, he is the one to beat. 160 (+14)
Enjoy D'allen
- Mark has slipped to 146 having run awful for most of this season failing to figure above 130 on any occasion and whilst he has run his best races over stamina testing trips (placed in 2021 Irish National), it's hard to have confidence in him after recent runs. Jumps and stays well and handicapper has been reflective in some ways, but unseated at the first last year when running off 2lb higher. Hard to evaluate as on his Irish National runs he has a squeak, but this seasons form is concerning. 149 (+3)
Mr Incredible
- A horse that was very well fancied for Cheltenham this season and didn't exactly do himself any favours having jumped the last. He clearly looks to have a little bit of a mind of his own, but these fences may just give him something to concentrate on, the worry is the long run in! He is clearly a horse who is better than a 145 horse as his last two runs have shown, and he jumps very well, but you also know he has his own way of doing things. Slightly surprised headgear wasn't reached for, but I like the booking of Brian Hughes and stamina is not an issue for him and he is on the whole a solid jumper. One for the short list, but I could easily see him jumping the last in front, popping his head into the sky and letting something hunt him down! 151 (+6)
Mister Coffey
- I have always been a shade surprised by this horse. He was well fancied to win a Betfair Hurdle at Newbury only two years ago and he has always been a horse that the Henderson yard have thought highly of. Despite his reputation, he has rarely got his head in front, despite being a model of consistency and he has placed over anything from 2m to 3m 6f, yet he is still to win in 8 starts over fences. I don't know if a maiden chaser has ever won a National, and it truly is a big task for him, but his run at Cheltenham suggested stamina should not be an issue for him, and whilst I wouldn't say he is the best jumper in the line up, he does seem to get round in his races despite making errors which don't seem to stop his momentum. He is likely to be ridden handy, which is ideal and I have a feeling he may just give Nico the dream ride round. Couldn't go the gallop over 2m 5f here over these fences earlier in the year, but still got round and I think this will be more his cup of tea. Rarely runs below 145 and ran to 149 at Uttoxeter suggesting off 145 he is not impossibly treated. I think he is overpriced at 40/1 and I would not be surprised if he became possibly the first maiden chaser to win a National! 150 (+5)
Cloudy Glen
- Very honest handicapper over the years and whilst his Newbury win in 2021 gives him a solid chance on figures, he has looked a shadow of that horse in recent runs and his usual front running tactics are not easy to replicate in a race like this. I'm sure he will make a bold fist of things out in front and will run well to a point, but I suspect he will be found wanting at the business end, despite being well handicapped on his best form. I just think very few horses would be able to make all and win a National and he tends to sulk if he doesn't get his own way. (154)(+9)
Hill Sixteen
- Placed form behind Snow Leopardess over these fences in 2021 shows he can handle them, and he has been lightly raced since then, only running 7 times. Run behind Ashtown Lad here in November has taken more knocks than someone in the tenth round with Anthony Joshua and whilst headgear and a breathing operation may help, the handicapper hasn't been that reflective to his dropping handicap mark, leaving him off 143 when he is officially rated 140. Best form gives him a chance, but recent runs leave a lot to be desired. 150 (+7)
Gabbys Cross
- Staying handicapper who has run up to this sort of mark in lesser races for much of the past two seasons. Jumps well, but has to prove this much longer trip will suit, and this is a much stronger race to the ones he is used to running in. Up against it. 143 (+/-)
Recite A Prayer
- Officially 1lb out of the handicap and last two runs leave a lot to be desired, including over these fences two starts ago. Placed off 139 and 141 in Irish handicaps over 3m and 3m 4f, he should have no problems over this longer trip and jumps well, but recent form is a concern and whilst ground will suit, it would be a surprise if he was good enough here. 142 (-1)
Eva's Oskar
- 1lb out of the handicap here today and has looked held off similar marks the last twice in a premier staying handicaps. Looks a solid 140 horse which is no disgrace and stays very well, and handles testing ground, but whilst Cheltenham win in December suggests he is capable around this mark, he doesn't strike me as well enough treated to win a National. No surprise if he completed tho and was in the first dozen. 145 (+2)
Our Power
- Softening ground probably less than ideal for him and for all he is officially 2lb out of the handicap off 143, he went up 6lb for his Kempton win from 141, so technically he is actually 4lb well treated from when the weights were published. He was a good 5th to Corach Rambler at Cheltenham in 2022 and shapes like he will be suited over this longer trip. The Sam Thomas yard are in good form and he is certainly a horse on the right side of the handicap who could be effective in this race, but the main concern for me, is that his best form has come on a sound surface. If he handles conditions I wouldn't say he is out of it, but he does have to prove himself on soft ground. 151 (+8)
Dunboyne
- Progressive Irish handicapper who is officially 2lb out the handicap here. Solid efforts over 3m 1f and 3m 2f the last twice when running to 139, suggest he stays well and he handles testing ground. This however is a much harder task and yet to figure above 140. 139 (-4)
Francky Du Berlais
- Stamina has to be a major question mark given the way he stopped to a walk at Cheltenham and refused at the last. Has got form over these fences, but officially 2lb out of the weights and stamina has looked limited above 3m 4f in the past. Best form also has been on a sounder surface and therefore, he just has too many questions to answer for me. 147 (+4)
Fortescue
- Plodded on over 3m 2f over these fences earlier in the season and shapes like a stayer, but ran poor the last twice and jumping is questionable. No easy task from 3lb out the weights and was beaten when unseating off this mark in last years renewal. 146 (+3)
Back On The Lash
- Officially 3lb out the weights and whilst he won well over the Cross Country fences at Cheltenham earlier in the season, he was poor at the Festival. Still lightly raced and improving, he stays well, so no surprise to see him run well, but the ground is a major worry having been pulled up twice on soft ground. 146 (+3)
Born By The Sea
- 6lb out the handicap makes this a very tough task and yet to conclusively prove he stays further than 2m 4f. Probably the easiest horse in the race to rule out. 137 (-6)
Summary
For me this is one of the most open and competitive Grand Nationals that there has been in recent years and on my figures, I have 31 of the runners all running off marks where there figures say they are capable of running above their mark, which makes this look very open.
The Irish understandably have a strong hand and last years runner up Any second Now looks sure to run another big race, and I would be surprised if he didn't reverse form with Noble Yeats, who faces no easy task off 19lb higher, but has at least proven himself at the highest level this season.
Galvin and The Big Dog are a couple I wouldn't be fully ruling out in this years race and I like their profile, whilst Escaria Ten and Darasso would be major players if you could be sure their stamina would hold up.
Willie Mullins possibly has the strongest hand of the Irish trainers with the improving Galliard Du Mesnil looking a natural candidate, whilst the quirky but talented Mr Incredible making some appeal and he is clearly on the upgrade.
Vanillier is another who looks like he's been trained for this and is a yard I respect, but his jumping is the one thing that ultimately puts me off.
Ain't That A Shame has been well backed but has to prove he can stay and whilst I would definitely be having Mr Incredible in my bets, I think if the Irish are going to land this, it will come from Capobanno or Delta Work. The former has stamina to prove but is definitely well handicapped, whilst Delta Work is well in on his Cross Country chase win and is proven over the fences.
However I have a feeling this race is staying close to home and I think the domestic brigade have some big players.
Our Power is well treated at the foot of the weights and has to enter calculations if handling conditions, whilst Minella Trump is definitely overpriced for me, and has the profile of a horse who could stepo up again.
That said, three horses in this could well be Grade 1 horses of the future, and I think they are the main players. Corach Rambler is well treated and on his Cheltenham run, he should win this. I like him and he is a class act, but he can't surely get away with being ridden like he was at Cheltenham in this and if he is, then he will need a lot of luck. He undoubtedly has the ability, but will he get the luck he needs?
I really like Le Milos and I think Dan Skelton has done a great job of training him for this and he looked to blow up at Kelso and I am expecting him to be spot on for this.
However I am pinning my hopes to the Henderson mast, with Mister Coffey. He is a safe but steady jumper who seems to stay any trip and whilst he doesn't all too often, and is in fact a maiden over fences, he has continued to hold up his form, and he will be ridden positively and these fences might just be what he needs to enthuse him. I think he has always been a horse who has promised to land a big one, and I just feel everything could go his way. He can track the pace on the first circuit before setting them a target on the second one, and I still think he is ahead of his mark. He may have his quirks. but I feel this could be a well hatched Henderson plan and I think he is massively overpriced for a horse with his profile.
Others at big odds I like are The Big Breakway and Velvet Elvis, but unlike the world cup, I think this ones coming home!
Advised Bets - All advised with SkyBet who are paying 7 Places
2.5pts Each Way - Mister Coffey @ 28/1 - Also 0.5pts Each Way @ 40/1 - Bet365 - 6 Places
1.5pts Each Way - Le Milos @ 14/1
1.5pts Each Way - Corach Rambler @ 9/1
1pt Each Way - Mr Incredible @ 12/1
1pt Each Way - Any Second Now @ 12/1
1pt Each Way - Delta Work @ 9/1
0.5pts Each Way - The Big Breakaway @ 33/1
0.5pts Each Way - Minella Trump @ 50/1
0.5pts Each Way - Velvet Elvis @ 33/1
Regards
