Grand National

I'd imagine Teaforthree is now exposed as far as the National is concerned. Yesterday was his best chance of a decent pot.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I took a quick look at the weights yesterday but Haven´t done any figures yet. Maybe next week. However, my immediate impression is that it´s an absolute cracker of a race in prospect. So many well known entries and any number of potential long-term plots.

Can´t wait...
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I look forward to your views on this race. On the day there will be firms going six places and betting to tiny margins in the morning. It's one of the best betting opportunities in the year.
 
I agree but I also noticed the bookies are offering far better odds this time around at this stage. 16/1 the fiield and lots of these good horses at very backable prices.

I took 66/1 (5 places) Highland Lodge yesterday morning in case he overcame a possible aversion to very soft ground. I reckoned it was a good idea in that if he won he'd have been cut to 20s or less and if he didn't he was hardly likely to go out from 66/1. The fact he was only about 2/1 or less yesterday and a very clear market leader in that ground against that quality of opposition suggests someone believes he's on a winning mark (although why anyone would have got involved with him in yesterday's race is a bit of a puzzler).
 
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Yes 5 places now is very welcome. I've not found anything I had to back just yet but I'm looking at the market everyday all the same.
 
I know I go on about this a lot but the smarter lads on here should be having small e/w doubles on horses they fancy in poorly framed e/w races and their fancies in the National with the bookmakers offering 5 places. You can quickly build yourself an excellent placebook for a modest outlay.
 
100 entries going forward after scratchings today, any horse with a weight of 10st 8lb or more should get in

THE FOLLOWING 15 HORSES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED:

RUBI LIGHT (FR), PLANET OF SOUND, WHITE STAR LINE (IRE), MIDNIGHT APPEAL, AWAY WE GO (IRE), RENARD (FR), HIGHLAND LODGE (IRE), MERRY KING (IRE), IKORODU ROAD, LIBERTY COUNSEL (IRE), QUEL ESPRIT (FR), UP THE BEAT, ROCKYABOYA (IRE), ORPHEUS VALLEY (IRE), RINGA BAY
 
Alan King says "everything's on hold" with Grand National hope Godsmejudge after he developed a stress problem during the Grimthorpe Chase.
 
Not sure it is the wisest move in the world to be running Teaforthree in the Gold Cup prior to the National. I know he takes some getting fit but this could leave a mark.
 
Frankel said:
Not sure it is the wisest move in the world to be running Teaforthree in the Gold Cup prior to the National. I know he takes some getting fit but this could leave a mark.
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Hardly the same as going for a 'pootle round Towcester' to get him fit is it?
Greed beyond care for the horse to go for both in same year.
 
It's a tough call as Rough Quest was 2nd in the Gold Cup only 2 weeks and 1 day before winning the National.
 
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yeah having backed him antepost i'm not impressed with this plan of action

hope he doesn't any kind of a hard race
 
Here is the Antepost preview and selections from one of the best form readers out there. Some of you may remember Kev from message boards in the past, he posted as Lazyexcuse. He's still banging in the winners.

Saturday 5th April 2014:

4.15 - Aintree - Crabbie´s Grand National Chase (Handicap) Grade 3:

Ante Post betting on big races has become more hit and miss than usual in recent years with seemingly more multiple entries, increasingly unpredictable weather and, in the case of the Grand National, curtailing to public pressure concerning safety aspects of the race. The 'softening' of the big race along with huge prize money has seen a bigger entry than usual and a larger percentage of better quality horses. This has led to the handicap compressing somewhat and some of the classier horses being given a tempting handicap mark in an effort to ensure their participation. The alterations may have gone too far for some purists and there is no doubt that the change to 'brush through' fences and the levelling out of ground on the landing side of many of the obstacles doesn't make this the jumping test of days gone by. Only two fallers in the race last year (six unseated) supports that statement and it now looks likely to be all about stamina, with the good jumpers losing the edge they once enjoyed. The fences still need to be successfully tackled but the horses with the tactical pace to lay up with an overly generous pace and stay all day are increasingly likely to come to the fore. The Grand National was always one race where trends stood the test of time but, even though last year's winner satisfied most of them, it's not hard to imagine that the traditional trends will be 'watered down' to some extent in the coming years. That's not to say they should be ignored because many of them tend toward common sense when studying a long distance handicap. With Tidal Bay now a confirmed runner there are 70 horses still in the handicap proper, and it's anyone's guess how many of these will stand their ground, but anything below a mark 137 will be sweating on their possible participation. That makes backing Wyck Hill, Tranquil Sea or Saint Are very risky as betting propositions at this stage and any tendency toward favouring them is probably best left until further defections are confirmed. There are of course a number who are guaranteed (or almost) to run should they turn up and it may be best to concentrate on their credentials.

The obvious starting points are Tidal Bay and Long Run who are without doubt the class horses of the race. Tidal Bay has always finished his races well so you would expect this extreme trip to be in his favour but his racing style leaves you wondering whether he will have too much to do in the latter stages. He is well handicapped, being five pounds below his Official Rating but both his runs at longer trips (30 furlongs) came in soft/heavy ground where he had no problem picking up the principals. Even with the desperate weather we have been having it's not likely that testing ground will be the order of the day and Tidal Bay may just find himself too far out of his ground or going a bit faster in the first half the race than he wants to. Long Run is not the same horse who won the Gold Cup in 2011 and the King George in 2012 and it's a worry whether the fires burn brightly enough for a race of this nature. If they do, and he gets into an early rhythm, it's not difficult seeing him running a very big race but it's also not hard to see something with a bit more heart staying better than him either. Rocky Creek had been talked of as being aimed for this race by connections at the start of this season but he is still in the Gold Cup and if he takes up that option there must be a doubt whether he will take in both races, being still relatively unexposed and inexperienced. If he bypasses the Gold Cup he appeals as the type who would run well in this event as his best form has come on a flat track and he won't mind if the ground doesn't dry out. His prominent racing style would suit the National and he still appears to be on the upgrade but the fact that connections chose to gain experience of the Cheltenham fences in the Argento Chase for his last outing suggests his main aim is now the Gold Cup. No eventuality rules him out of winning this race but his Hennessy conqueror, Triolo D'Alene, looks a more likely type for the Grand National. He is five pounds worse off with Rocky Creek for a two and half length winning margin but he stayed on powerfully at Newbury and he had experience of the National fences when winning the Topham at last season's meeting. He looks a stronger horse this season and he is obviously bouncing at home having been confirmed as a Cheltenham Gold Cup runner, a target that wasn't on his radar at the beginning of the campaign. The ten pound rise that he incurred for winning the Hennessy may mean connections are having second thoughts about a tilt at the National but it's more likely that they need to get a run into him and the ground has held them up in that respect. It was noticeable that he reverted to racing more prominently in the Hennessy and those tactics would hold him in good stead in this race. He had form on soft ground in France but his best performances in this country have been on ground no worse than good to soft so continued bad weather leading up to the race would hamper his chances. Having finished third last season, Teaforthree, runs from a two pound lower mark this time round. He was treading water in the final stages of the race and, having finished a close second over four miles in heavy ground in the Welsh National, it indicates that stamina is now likely to be the biggest asset of future winners. A big imposing horse, his jumping ability has always been one of his strongest points and that advantage has been somewhat negated by the 'downgrading' of the National fences. They still have to be tackled and his inherent ability will always mean he cannot be written off. Monbeg Dude is an improving Chaser who would've been an odds on chance to fall if he took part in this race a few seasons ago when the fences were stiffer and his jumping wasn't up to scratch. This race has been mapped out for him by connections and there's little doubt that he has reserves of stamina that many of his likely rivals don't possess but his racing style is similar to that of Tidal Bay. That could see him under pressure to jump fluently if he has plenty of ground to make up and, even over these fences, that could prove a difficult task. He is versatile toward ground conditions but plenty of cut in the ground would increase the chances of those up front coming back to him. In winning the Scottish Grand National last season Godsmejudge showed the right credentials for this race, travelling well toward the head of affairs before running on powerfully all the way to the line once he struck the front at the last down the back the final time. He made a reasonable reappearance at Cheltenham from a nine pound higher mark and a subsequent disappointment came at a time when the yard were under a cloud but he was never travelling in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster and was pulled up again. Even if that race were needed, going into the National on the back of two non-completions leaves him with too much to prove to be a viable betting proposition. Across The Bay went well for a long way in last season's renewal but he seems to need deep ground to show his best and Mr Moonshine, who was pulled up last year, has a tough task from a ten pound higher mark this time round. The Rainbow Hunter fell at the 8th (Canal Turn) in 2013 and is four pound higher for this renewal. That came courtesy of an eight pound rise for winning at Doncaster last time out but the way the second was coming back at him suggests he may find this test beyond his capabilities and his 'hold-up' style gives him a difficult task if that proves to be the case.

With the Irish Grand National meeting taking place nearly three weeks later this year than it did last there is an opportunity for horses from across the water to run in both Festivals, although a gap of 15/16 days would need a horse of good resolution and powers of recovery. At this point there is a strong contingent from Ireland holding their ground with On His Own, Mossey Joe, Colbert Station, Double Seven, Buckers Bridge, Big Shu and Home Farm leading the charge. On His Own has struck form with a vengeance on his last two starts in Ireland but he was beginning to struggle prior to falling at the 25th in last season's Grand National and that was three fences further than he got in the 2102 renewal. He again holds an entry but, even though he put in an encouraging performance in the Becher Chase here in December, the experience of those two previous races and a five pound higher mark may see connections opt for the Punchestown Gold Cup. Mossey Joe was an expensive recent purchase and was earmarked for the Foxhunters at Cheltenham and this race. He now misses his Cheltenham engagement and connections will be keen to get a run into a horse who hasn't been seen since last June. He had been mopping up Hunter Chases prior to his absence but the Handicapper hasn't been kind in allocating him a mark of 152 and the balance of his form suggest that may be beyond him. Colbert Station was well fancied for this race last season but got rid of Tony McCoy at the 15th (Chair). He is only two pounds higher this time and his best performance in four outings this term was when tackling fences over three miles under a big weight in the Troytown at Navan in November. He has been kept to shorter distances and/or hurdles in his other three starts and he is entered in the Carrickmines at Leopardswown over 21 furlongs. Four of his five victories have come in soft/heavy ground but he has form on good/good soft going and he hasn't been over-raced for a horse of his age. His yard know how to prepare a horse to win this race having been successful with Papillon back in 2000. Colbert Station has yet to reveal his hand beyond three miles but there is stamina on the Dam's side and his Sire is responsible for both Monbeg Dude and Godsmejudge. Double Seven was a Wexford winner in soft ground when last seen in October but most of his winning form has been done on faster ground and he is one who will be hoping that the weather improves. The Irish National was muted as his target by connections and only one renewal of that race since 2006 has been on ground worse than good to yielding. He has won both his completed starts over 24/25 furlongs, the furthest he has been, but he gives the impression that he has untapped reserves of stamina and he wouldn't be a surprise were he to take his chance at Aintree from a reasonable looking mark. He also comes from a yard who have winning form in this race having won the 2006 renewal with Numbersixvalverde. Buckers Bridge has only ever run over three miles plus once and that came last time out when finishing third to On His Own at Fairyhouse . He was beaten seventeen lengths but he is 12 pounds better off with On His Own in the National and, although nearly all his racing has been done on soft/heavy ground, he was impressive when winning at Gowran Park in November in good to yielding conditions. He is interesting outsider but maybe has a bit to prove to warrant support, even at a very big price. Big Shu is a big fancy for the Cross Country race at Cheltenham, a race he won convincingly last season, but if he comes out of that race well he may take his chances here. He took in the same race last time out as he did prior to winning at Cheltenham last season before going on to win the Le Touche at the Punchestown Festival. Stamina is unlikely to be a problem but a handicap mark of 147 could be and a there is a nagging doubt whether he will have the tactical speed to keep in touch with some of his likely opposition. Home Farm is due to run in the Carrickmines, that will be just his seventh start over fences under rules so he lacks a bit of experience for a race of this nature and he is only a seven year old but he is interesting otherwise. He improved significantly when stepped up to 21 furlongs on his second last start of the last campaign and he ran a blinder when tackling the Irish Grand National as a Novice over 29 furlongs on his final start. Those races came on soft, yielding to soft ground but being by Presenting it wouldn't be a surprise to see him handle, or even improve for quicker conditions. He was noted staying on well last time out over three miles in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown and a mark of 143 for the National looks fair. Connections may have a return to the Irish National as a target, and Home farm certainly fails many of the traditional stats for this race.

With both Tidal Bay and Long Run looking likely to run the weights for this race shouldn't shift much but the shape of it may change depending on who take their chances. We will take an ante post stance now with a view to looking at the race again once the final runners have been confirmed.

After watching the aforementioned Carrickimines Handicap Chase over 21 furlongs in soft ground at Leopardstown a few additional observations are made. Double Seven, Home Farm and Colbert Station were all well beaten with the latter taking a heavy fall at the second last. That is far from an ideal preparation for Colbert Station just a month away from the Grand National and, having unseated last year, his appeal is diminished. Both Home Farm and Double Seven may have needed their outings after breaks of two and five months respectably but connections of Home Farm were disappointed post race. They seemed to be swaying towards another tilt at the Irish National and, given his age, experience and good effort in that race last year, it would seem the sensible option. Double Seven never really did his Grand National credentials any harm over the shorter trip after his absence and, given his liking for faster ground and greater experience over fences, he looks the more likely of the three to turn up at Aintree.

Ante Post Selections:

Triolo D'Alene 1 pt win @ 20/1. (BetVictor NRFB)
Double Seven 0.5 pts e/w @ 33/1. (BetVictor NRFB but 40/1 available at Coral and Stan James)
 
Frankel said:
Not sure it is the wisest move in the world to be running Teaforthree in the Gold Cup prior to the National. I know he takes some getting fit but this could leave a mark.
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The owner gives his explanation


I said in my last blog that Teaforthree was unlikely to run again until Aintree. That is probably now not going to be the case. The initial view was not intended to put people away – it was genuinely what we thought. He was fitter than we anticipated at Ascot. But, on reflection, we think he needs another run. He attracted plenty of ante-post support following Ascot, so for those holding decent vouchers – and I am not one of them – you deserve an explanation. So here’s my attempt. As Rebecca has said on a few occasions, he is a big, stuffy type who needs racing to get into peak shape. The more we thought about it, the more we felt uncomfortable about Aintree being his third run of the season, on the back of a seven-week break. So, we decided he needed to have another run. He went up to a mark of 153 after Ascot, so all that he could run in were the Festival Handicap, the Gold Cup, a race at Kelso a week after Cheltenham or a spin over hurdles. I don’t like the latter as an option. Tom (our nickname for Teaforthree) is too good a jumper to have his head screwed around with by hurdles. Kelso is too close to Aintree. The Festival Handicap will have 24 runners, Tom would be giving weight away to the majority and the prospects of shenanigans will be intensified in that environment. Then there’s the Gold Cup. We asked AP McCoy what his view was. He thought it would put him spot on. We agree. So he’s likely to line up on the Friday, a decision that has been met with a fair few comments of us throwing away his Aintree chance and assertions that we do not know what we are doing. Such suggestions do irritate a little, but I have a thick skin (required for GBR/BHA work) – and they do make you attempt to justify the decision to those that you want to justify it to. I think he is an old fashioned chaser and I think he will enjoy the Gold Cup and come on for it. I have no visions of him winning, but I do think his jumping will help him through and may unsettle one or two others. Rough Quest came second in the Gold Cup before winning at Aintree. West Tip ran in it three times before placing in the National – and plenty of others have used the race in the middle distance past. I remember seeing Hedgehunter cruising at the top of the Cheltenham hill before finishing second to War of Attrition, then finishing second at Aintree carrying 11st 10lb. I have convinced myself it was weight that made him fail to win a second National, not his exerts in the Gold Cup. Tom will be carrying far less weight this year. One of the main reasons why there are not many examples to compare with is that if a horse is good enough to have a chance in a Gold Cup, then he is likely to be carrying a heavy burden at Aintree, so most don’t try. There’s also my aversion to the modern day tendency to wrap horses in cotton wool. I tend to favour the view that, if they’re fit and well, then run them. They are fragile enough and anything can happen, anywhere. And it is a sport. Small fields are a current issue in the industry. It is not an issue that is due to a single cause, but the fashion for avoiding taking up the opportunities offered, and of favouring racecourse gallops to having a go in front of the paying public, is not in the longer term interests of the sport. So we are going to have a go. And I think he will go well. And if he leaves Aintree behind at Cheltenham, then so be it. I’d rather reflect on leaving Aintree behind by taking action than him perform below par at Aintree because we have left him under-cooked. And we know that only racing brings him properly to the boil. The timing has also not been a barrier to others. Sunnyhillboy won the Festival Handicap before being touched off for the 2012 National. Bindaree ran in the same race before his win. Don’t Push It ran in the Pertemps Final; Silver Birch in the Cross Country; and Mon Mome and Lord Gyllene in the Midlands National after the Festival. There are some old fashioned chasers in that lot. Whatever the merits of the decision, it is based on what we think is right for Tom – and is certainly not a vanity trip. Now that’s off my chest, I can begin to focus on the race. This week will consist of Imodium tablets, the British Racing School, hopefully Pat Phelan’s and then back to Rebecca’s for a final spin on The Bear Trap ahead of the greatest week of the year. I’m looking forward to it all.
 
G-G said:
Hardly the same as going for a 'pootle round Towcester' to get him fit is it?
Greed beyond care for the horse to go for both in same year.
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I know horses have run in the Gold Cup before. But this fella won't just be lobbing round the back all the way. He'll be up there with the pace for a way, and get suckered in to having a gruelling race. He will run a very admiral race, but finish absolutely drunk imo.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
The owner gives his explanation


I said in my last blog that Teaforthree was unlikely to run again until Aintree. That is probably now not going to be the case. The initial view was not intended to put people away – it was genuinely what we thought. He was fitter than we anticipated at Ascot. But, on reflection, we think he needs another run. He attracted plenty of ante-post support following Ascot, so for those holding decent vouchers – and I am not one of them – you deserve an explanation. So here’s my attempt. As Rebecca has said on a few occasions, he is a big, stuffy type who needs racing to get into peak shape. The more we thought about it, the more we felt uncomfortable about Aintree being his third run of the season, on the back of a seven-week break. So, we decided he needed to have another run. He went up to a mark of 153 after Ascot, so all that he could run in were the Festival Handicap, the Gold Cup, a race at Kelso a week after Cheltenham or a spin over hurdles. I don’t like the latter as an option. Tom (our nickname for Teaforthree) is too good a jumper to have his head screwed around with by hurdles. Kelso is too close to Aintree. The Festival Handicap will have 24 runners, Tom would be giving weight away to the majority and the prospects of shenanigans will be intensified in that environment. Then there’s the Gold Cup. We asked AP McCoy what his view was. He thought it would put him spot on. We agree. So he’s likely to line up on the Friday, a decision that has been met with a fair few comments of us throwing away his Aintree chance and assertions that we do not know what we are doing. Such suggestions do irritate a little, but I have a thick skin (required for GBR/BHA work) – and they do make you attempt to justify the decision to those that you want to justify it to. I think he is an old fashioned chaser and I think he will enjoy the Gold Cup and come on for it. I have no visions of him winning, but I do think his jumping will help him through and may unsettle one or two others. Rough Quest came second in the Gold Cup before winning at Aintree. West Tip ran in it three times before placing in the National – and plenty of others have used the race in the middle distance past. I remember seeing Hedgehunter cruising at the top of the Cheltenham hill before finishing second to War of Attrition, then finishing second at Aintree carrying 11st 10lb. I have convinced myself it was weight that made him fail to win a second National, not his exerts in the Gold Cup. Tom will be carrying far less weight this year. One of the main reasons why there are not many examples to compare with is that if a horse is good enough to have a chance in a Gold Cup, then he is likely to be carrying a heavy burden at Aintree, so most don’t try. There’s also my aversion to the modern day tendency to wrap horses in cotton wool. I tend to favour the view that, if they’re fit and well, then run them. They are fragile enough and anything can happen, anywhere. And it is a sport. Small fields are a current issue in the industry. It is not an issue that is due to a single cause, but the fashion for avoiding taking up the opportunities offered, and of favouring racecourse gallops to having a go in front of the paying public, is not in the longer term interests of the sport. So we are going to have a go. And I think he will go well. And if he leaves Aintree behind at Cheltenham, then so be it. I’d rather reflect on leaving Aintree behind by taking action than him perform below par at Aintree because we have left him under-cooked. And we know that only racing brings him properly to the boil. The timing has also not been a barrier to others. Sunnyhillboy won the Festival Handicap before being touched off for the 2012 National. Bindaree ran in the same race before his win. Don’t Push It ran in the Pertemps Final; Silver Birch in the Cross Country; and Mon Mome and Lord Gyllene in the Midlands National after the Festival. There are some old fashioned chasers in that lot. Whatever the merits of the decision, it is based on what we think is right for Tom – and is certainly not a vanity trip. Now that’s off my chest, I can begin to focus on the race. This week will consist of Imodium tablets, the British Racing School, hopefully Pat Phelan’s and then back to Rebecca’s for a final spin on The Bear Trap ahead of the greatest week of the year. I’m looking forward to it all.
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Great piece.
 
If Same Difference waits off a fly weight he will scatter them like flies same difference.;)
 
backed burton port at the weekend 33/1 on the basis that i reckon he's the best handicapped horse in the race and his last run was much improved, he was ridden differently and took more interest before getting tired in the ground. i believe jonjo has this horse where he wants him handicap wise and the way they ran him that day was a prelude to aintree, he will love the likely better ground and i can see him running a big one.
 
Curiously enough, on my figures he didn't actually post a higher rating that day than in his run behind Tranquil Sea, which isn't what I was expecting when I went to rate the race. The way he ran then [last time] was encouraging to the eye in that he went off fast and had some decent horses apparently in trouble a long way out but he seems to have tied up dramatically in the final half mile.

Obviously if he's anywhere near as good as in 2012 he just has to take to the race and he'll hack up.
 
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