To be honest, that would have been my interpretation of the exchanges too.
People looking at the discrepancy in the exchange and office price need to remember that the GN is priced at NRNB and thus a little bit shorter. In this case LTd'A, was 66/1 and clipped to 50 when NRNB was introduced. The Topham wasn't NRNB, so you wouldn't be comparing like with like. Therefore, 66 would be his market price which would be in line with the 85 on the machine, since outsiders are always given more latitude. 19pts bigger on that kind of price isn't an indication of a NR in my experience. He's only 22% bigger without the concession
By contrast his Topham price was between 14-16's and 31 on the machine. That's about 50% bigger, and led me to think that GN was the more likely target.
Well lets be honest, a Topham price is always going to be shorter than a GN price for obvious reasons, so simply looking at the exchanges and saying the shortest price is an indication, is, well, no indication. I tend to think its the differential between the high street and the BF price that gives us a hint
Back to the horse though.
He's going to get in, as the likes of Bog Warrior, Our Father, Roi du Mee, Vesper Bell, and Twirling Magnet don't look like running, and off 10.2 he's going to do so off a light weight
Now the stats guys will tell you that you can't win a National without a win at 3 miles. That seems fair enough, but this horse has only raced the distance once, and came a good 3rd in Leopardstown's 28 runner handicap chase over Xmas won by Colbert Station (who he is weighted to reverse with on that showing, and who is about twice the price of)
More importantly though he was noted as finishing full of running with the clear suggestion he could have carried on. Since that run, he's been conspicuously cut back in trip, and sent on various hurdles assignments. Clear evidence that Cussack is protecting a mark, albeit he did run over the National fences in last years Topham, and again came a good third under the circumstances to Triolo d'Lene. After the Hennessy, Gerraghty remarked how well handicapped the winner was and described as something of his secret weapon which was now exposed a bit for the GN. Well imagine how ridiculously well he must have been treated on his Topham win then, yet Last Time D'Albain got within 7.5L's giving him 5Ibs
Now I've got no idea if the horse will last the trip, you always need to cut some slack to an outsider, as there is a reason why he's the price he is, but he looks one of the more plausible long shots to me at this stage off what looks like a protected mark and a feather weight.
What if he is an out and out stayer? There's just a hint on the single run at Leopardstown that he might be, but that's all it is, a hint. It could equally be that he's yet another turkey
