Guineas

The new lass on the RP pod made a really good point about Queen Kindly's run in the Fred Darling. She missed the start and swerved losing at least 3 lengths. Tardiness at the start is something I always look for in handicaps but not conditions races and I missed it the two times I'd viewed the race. This combined with her form profile (similar to Cape Verdi and Harayir in that she won the Lowther and was poor in the Cheveley park) makes her worth a go at 33s.
 
Euronymous said:
The new lass on the RP pod made a really good point about Queen Kindly's run in the Fred Darling. She missed the start and swerved losing at least 3 lengths. Tardiness at the start is something I always look for in handicaps but not conditions races and I missed it the two times I'd viewed the race. This combined with her form profile (similar to Cape Verdi and Harayir in that she won the Lowther and was poor in the Cheveley park) makes her worth a go at 33s.
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Would she want a mile?
 
There's a lot to like about Martyn Meade's Frankel colt.

He gave me the impression he needed the run in the Craven.

He travelled really well for 6 furlongs then he seemed to get tired and for a few moment looked beat.

The way he got back into it makes me think there's huge improvement in him and he'll make them all go.
 
Is Al Wukair not an absolute certainty for this? If he's 9/2 or 5/1 on Saturday morning I'm going to hammer him e/w.
 
Euronymous said:
I disagree, looks a decent renewal. Short on runners but I like the quality.
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Agree largely. Normally in a Guineas you get a cluster of relative no-hopers rated around 100-107, enough of which tend to run their races well enough to give the form a ratable shape. There aren't many of them this year but nine of the current field are rated at least 110. I'd take that as a positive.

I'm one of those who was quite taken by Eminent in the Craven but now that I've crunched some numbers I'm less convinced.

On the other hand, the number are telling me that if Churchill is anything less than at the top of his game Barney Roy and Al Wukair will be fighting out the finish.
 
Desert Orchid said:
On the other hand, the number are telling me that if Churchill is anything less than at the top of his game Barney Roy and Al Wukair will be fighting out the finish.
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Agree with that. Eminent looks the weakest of the big four in the betting. I really like Barney Roy but my niggling doubt about him is that at Newbury he had to be pushed along quite vigorously to go the pace and he could just struggle to peg the others back if the same happens on Saturday.

I'm on Rhododendron at 25/1 for the One Thousand but only to small stakes. I've a lot more on her for the Oaks at the same price. I'm also on Fair Eva at good odds but my faith in her has waned despite the confidence from connections. My ante-post book has suffered with the rerouting to France of Dabyah and the withdrawal of Sobetsu.
 
gus said:
Agree with that. Eminent looks the weakest of the big four in the betting. I really like Barney Roy but my niggling doubt about him is that at Newbury he had to be pushed along quite vigorously to go the pace and he could just struggle to peg the others back if the same happens on Saturday.

I'm on Rhododendron at 25/1 for the One Thousand but only to small stakes. I've a lot more on her for the Oaks at the same price. I'm also on Fair Eva at good odds but my faith in her has waned despite the confidence from connections. My ante-post book has suffered with the rerouting to France of Dabyah and the withdrawal of Sobetsu.
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I rather like Dream Castle ew if whoever rides him on Saturday gets him to settle . I know he was run down late on by the Hannon animal but he appeared to show a terrific turn of foot to shoot clear and then got tired . His price yesterday appeared to be rather long .

I suppose same old story - is Churchill a George Washington or an Air Force Blue ?
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Agree largely. Normally in a Guineas you get a cluster of relative no-hopers rated around 100-107, enough of which tend to run their races well enough to give the form a ratable shape. There aren't many of them this year but nine of the current field are rated at least 110. I'd take that as a positive.

I'm one of those who was quite taken by Eminent in the Craven but now that I've crunched some numbers I'm less convinced.

On the other hand, the number are telling me that if Churchill is anything less than at the top of his game Barney Roy and Al Wukair will be fighting out the finish.
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You should never have crunched those numbers.......what you shuld crunch is Eminent went to the Craven undercooked and still won

You will see the son of Frankel blow them all away on Saturday .... crunch that:lol:
 
Holding decent each way antepost bets on Rhodedendron and Al Wukair. O'Brien seems to have started the season very slowly, completely unsure how his horses are so I'm not overly confident.
 
Does anyone have Timeform's standard times for the RM course at Newmarket and for Newbury?

I caught up this morning with Simon Rowlands's always-excellent Sectional Debrief from the trials and he says Eminent and Barney Roy ran similar [fast] races.

I've used my own STs (the old Raceform ones, as I find them more reliable) and the existing RP ones and still can't get them 'together'.

On old STs and before WFA:
Eminent 96
(Dabyah 93)
Barney Roy 112


RPSTs:
Eminent 99
(Dabyah 86)
Barney Roy 104

So depending on which set of times you prefer, there is between 5lbs and 16lbs between them, favouring Barney Roy.

The trainer was adamant after the Craven that Eminent would come on a lot for the race and I have no reason not to accept that. I'd also expect Barney Roy to improve again. Does any trainer send one to the trials 100% at their peak?
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Does anyone have Timeform's standard times for the RM course at Newmarket and for Newbury?

I caught up this morning with Simon Rowlands's always-excellent Sectional Debrief from the trials and he says Eminent and Barney Roy ran similar [fast] races.

I've used my own STs (the old Raceform ones, as I find them more reliable) and the existing RP ones and still can't get them 'together'.

On old STs and before WFA:
Eminent 96
(Dabyah 93)
Barney Roy 112


RPSTs:
Eminent 99
(Dabyah 86)
Barney Roy 104

So depending on which set of times you prefer, there is between 5lbs and 16lbs between them, favouring Barney Roy.

The trainer was adamant after the Craven that Eminent would come on a lot for the race and I have no reason not to accept that. I'd also expect Barney Roy to improve again. Does any trainer send one to the trials 100% at their peak?
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Timeform keep their standard times to themselves, I think, for obvious reasons. But I'd kill for a list of them.

However, I'm pretty sure that a few years back Simon Rowlands wrote an article which was published on the TF website and which dealt with how their timefigures were calculated. By way of illustration, he dealt with the times on the Rowley Mile on Champion Stakes day (when it was run there) and their standards were featured in the article. So, you might find it in their archive.

However, DO, you need to stop crunching numbers. Tanlic says so.
 
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