Harbinger injured ...

EC, as usual you ruin your argument by having to adopt such an extreme position. Cape Blanco does stay 12 furlongs, and this is not in doubt if you watch how well he stayed on in the final 2 furlongs of what was a relatively gruelling Irish Derby. You are welcome to say what you choose, but anyone with access to youtube can view the race and see that he has no stamina issues over a mile and a half.

He may well be better over 10 furlongs, judged on his Champion Stakes performance. This, however, does not mean he doesn't stay a mile and a half - these 2 things are not mutually exclusive.

All horses stay 5 miles for a start..in fact if John Wayne's on em make that 10.

there is no such thing as staying in reality..its about the ability to beat horses at a given test...alter the level of horses competed against and you get a different test...alter the pace scenario,...and you get a different test

The Irish Derby in your opinion was a gruelling test?..but in reality it wasn't. It was a race that didn't require lots of stamina as they didn't go hard enough early ..as displayed by the final time compared to the 12f handicap that followed it. The final time of the Derby wasn't strong..in fact if you compare the times ..CB ran 2m28.68 carrying 9-0....Bay Willow ran it in 2m29.93..just 1.25 seconds slower than CB carrying 8-4. Bay Willow ran to a mark there about 8lb higher than his OHR..a 95 run..so add 6lb for the weight difference..and 12lb for the time difference to CB and it makes the ID a 113 race on the clock..you don't need to add weight for age as the handicap winner is a 3yo.

A gruelling test would have provided rather a greater speed figure than 113 for tough test at 12f in G1 company

On top of the time showing you didn't need stamina but speed you have Jan Vermeer who also wants 10f... can be beaten by just 2 lengths by CB in a speed race at 12f. Midas Touch got totally outspeeded by CB in the Irish Derby because the race didn't play to his stamna..he was shown to be one paced due to it not being a true test.

So you have stamina horses like MT who couldn't show his stamina to the full..and weak finishing 12f horses like JV ..who was close up at the end because the race played to his speed as it also did with with CB.

If neither of those arguments prove to you it wasn't a stamina test..add also the fact that the race comments tell a tale on their own..Monterosso..outpaced 5f out...a sure sign of an injection of speed at that point..that wouldn't happen in a strongly race..it shows they didn't go hard early and that the pace picked up quickly at one point in the race....a sure sign of a speed pace..not a stamina one.

Also look at JV making up lots of ground..by using speed not stamina..if it had been a gruelling test JV would not have passed horses like that...his speed got him past plodders to take 3rd place.

Thats 3 good pointers to tell you the make up of the Irish Derby..but coz its over 12f you believe that any horse that wins a 12f race must stay it..full stop..against any oppo and against any pace make up....thats poor race reading on your behalf my opinion.

You are making race analysis.. a painting by distance affair when in fact distance alone isn't as relevant as you believe..races are about tests..not just the distance. Distance is only one facet of a race..there are many different 12f tests...when CB met a different one at Ascot to the one he did in Ireland..he failed at Ascot because in a true run 12f race he did not get home..patently did not..the sectionals ..and his rolling about showed that.

So you have two different tests at 12f ..one he met..because it played to his strengths..and one he falied at because at that distance and at that pace he does not produce anywhere near his best. If he had taken part in a KG where the placed horses had run up to their marks he would have finished 5th or 6th at Ascot..totally vulnerable in the last 2 furlongs.
 
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You're welcome to your opinion and it's at least interesting to read your post and reasoning. However, probably best to agree to disagree on this one.
 
You're welcome to your opinion and it's at least interesting to read your post and reasoning. However, probably best to agree to disagree on this one.

if you can't see how races differ Hamm then i can't really do a deal more..but there is no such thing as staying per se..it doesn't exist really ..as each race varies in many ways..the actual distance just one of em

there is nothing simple about predicting which test will suit which horse..its certanly not as simple as looking at the win line and reading 12f win..and assuming the horse truly wants that trip

to the other extreme..horses win maidens at trips they never repeat..becasue on some occasions they are against poor oppo and slow pace make up's...thats why when i look at a horse's form..i immediately dispense with a maiden win..as its its not that informative.

lets see what others think..i have explained my way of reading the form on this one anyway
 
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