Well realised, Bar! Of course - an average of three runs per horse, not per season, would be tragic. That's everything, too, from 2 y.o.'s to 13 y.o. grizzled chasers who've probably got a decade's worth of slog behind them.
Harbinger injured ...
- Thread starter LUKE
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Sorry, I have should have made it clearer that the figure referred to runs per season. You'll get figures for every racing country here:
http://www.horseracingintfed.com/wageringDisplay.asp?section=4
It turns out that the figure I gave of 12,100 horses in training in Ireland reduces to only just over 9,000 horses that got to run in a race. Therefore the average number of runs per season for horses making it to the track is closer to four than three.
In the UK, however, the equivalent figure is closer to five. The difference is perhaps explained by a greater share of young horses in the Irish population and a tendency to sell them to the UK after their first run or two.
Comparative figures for the UK and Ireland in 2008 (UK first):
Different horses having run
20,366
9,041
Number of starts
98,014
34,952
Starts per horse having run
4.8
3.9
The figure for Dansili's progeny of ten runs per horse reaching the track is starting to look less impressive, I suppose, but I suspect this figure only takes flat runs into account. When I calculate it from the RP database taking NH runs into account I get an average of 12.5. It might be useful to know, Songsheet, where your figure came from.
http://www.horseracingintfed.com/wageringDisplay.asp?section=4
It turns out that the figure I gave of 12,100 horses in training in Ireland reduces to only just over 9,000 horses that got to run in a race. Therefore the average number of runs per season for horses making it to the track is closer to four than three.
In the UK, however, the equivalent figure is closer to five. The difference is perhaps explained by a greater share of young horses in the Irish population and a tendency to sell them to the UK after their first run or two.
Comparative figures for the UK and Ireland in 2008 (UK first):
Different horses having run
20,366
9,041
Number of starts
98,014
34,952
Starts per horse having run
4.8
3.9
The figure for Dansili's progeny of ten runs per horse reaching the track is starting to look less impressive, I suppose, but I suspect this figure only takes flat runs into account. When I calculate it from the RP database taking NH runs into account I get an average of 12.5. It might be useful to know, Songsheet, where your figure came from.
Grey, that still seems awfully low taking into account the all-weather racing we have in particular here in the UK! There are horses out all year round on that, as it doesn't really have a season - it just backs off a bit during the (turf) Flat year, but even then, it doesn't die off altogether. Lingfield's 'turf' meetings have always included a couple of AW races. I find those low runs per horse very, er, well, low.
Did you include the NH runs as well, Songsheet? They're counted separately.
But be careful, because plenty of horses run under both codes, and simply adding the stats for the two codes will result in them being double counted.
What's that about lies, damn lies, and then statistics? :lol:
A useful tool indeed, but only if used with some care. Still find those run numbers awfully low, but there, the experts have worked them all out for us, so they must be true!
A useful tool indeed, but only if used with some care. Still find those run numbers awfully low, but there, the experts have worked them all out for us, so they must be true!
Shadow Leader
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Hmmm....whilst taking your points on board, I find it a little hard to reconcile them with someone who is a fan of Bahamian Bounty as a sire, who raced only seven times in his life, only two of those starts being at three before he disappeared completely in July of that season. I'd argue that there is good reason to think that Bahamian Bounty would be far more of a risk as an 'unsound sire' than Harbinger.
Sheikh
At the Start
My thoughts as well. I think the the official handicapping has been awful this year and CB confirmed that to me. The way the Derby was rated was the start of the mess.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
How should the major players be ranked then, Sheikh?
Sheikh
At the Start
I don't do ratings and I don't memorise them. A general observation is that they have been rating horses too highly and now they have to work out a rating for CB that fits into that pattern.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
I would agree with that (and also feel the same with staying chasers at the moment).
EC1
On a break
what do you mean pattern?..he isn't that hard to rate..he bombed out at Ascot and ran to his best in Ireland..seems straight forward to me
Sheikh
At the Start
EC1
On a break
think we have done this to death..i'm certainly not going there again
his run at Ascot clearly..to me..pointed to a drop back to 10 being an obvious move..whereas you and others are happy to believe his run at Ascot was near his best..because you believe he stays 12f in top class co..i don't believe he does..hence his run at Ascot..when rolling about in the last 2f urlongs was nowhere near his best
i backed my opinion on Saturday..and won a nice bit..so am happy with my view of the KG and CB's staying ability
EC1
On a break
That's a valid opinion but not one I share. Now they have to rate his Champion stakes run in the context of the distorted frame they have already created (does that make sense :blink
i'm just not seeing it hard to fit them into place..but thats because I had CB running in the low 110's in teh KG..whereas others had him 10lb higher even though he were nearly going backwards in the last 2 furlong
Gamla Stan
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Horses coming second in King George's don't bomb out.
EC1
On a break
they do when they are travelling like a snail at the end
it was a very poor KG based on actual performances on the day..that rules out being 2nd as of much merit..it means the others didn't move on late..a bit like Saturdays race..do you think getting 2nd in that race means the horse filling that place actually had to do much to get the 2nd..nothing came on..it was like they were just marking time.
the name of a race doesn't automatically mean a horse gets a certain rating..its the KG so the 2nd horse must have run his best or near it..its not necessarily the case if the whole filed runs below par..something that happens in many races for a varity of reasons..including group races.
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imagine
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To be fair Cape Blanco may be much more effective at 10f than 12f. However, to say he ''bombed out'' in the KG seems a bit harsh to me - he might have been well beaten by Harbinger but he still finished second, tired or not he still finished ahead of Youmzain who's clearly proven at 12f. I know some people think he's (Youmi) less effective at Ascot than at other courses but even so CB finished ahead of him and as such I think deserves a bit more credit than he's been receiving of late. He was clearly labouring in the later stages of the KG but plugged on gamely, even if it was only one paced in the end, he has plenty of heart as well as talent. Due to Harbinger's injury we'll never know if he'd reproduce the KG form again but so far CB has franked the form and is probably the best 3yo in training at present.
EC, as usual you ruin your argument by having to adopt such an extreme position. Cape Blanco does stay 12 furlongs, and this is not in doubt if you watch how well he stayed on in the final 2 furlongs of what was a relatively gruelling Irish Derby. You are welcome to say what you choose, but anyone with access to youtube can view the race and see that he has no stamina issues over a mile and a half.
He may well be better over 10 furlongs, judged on his Champion Stakes performance. This, however, does not mean he doesn't stay a mile and a half - these 2 things are not mutually exclusive.
He may well be better over 10 furlongs, judged on his Champion Stakes performance. This, however, does not mean he doesn't stay a mile and a half - these 2 things are not mutually exclusive.
Gamla Stan
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Spot on.
Funnily enough I think it was his stamina that won the day in Ireland. He has speed and stamina in his pedigree. He opened up an impressive lead using his speed and once stamina kicked in the others were unable to get to him. I wouldn't worry about him at 12 furlongs in the least.