Haydock Betfair Chase weekend

i've watched the betfair Chase back a few times..i've never seen CC jump so well. I think he won through fitness rather than showing stamina..in fact he has repeated his beating over SC that he did last year when SC was undercooked.

The alarm bells re SC rang yesterday when PN said he needed another two weeks..i'm no expert on this..so will ask anyone who is connected with chasers..if your horse was 2 weeks short how far below best form would he run? The second alarm bell rang when SC drifted from evens to 6/4 on betfair a few minutes before the off. This suggests to me it was pretty well known SC wasn't 100%. I think Brennans tactic at one part of the race showed he was going to find that fitness chink when he took CC alongside SC before they turned out of the back straight..this encoureged SC to pull on after what had already been a real test..and eventually did for him imo.

We are at exactly the same point as we were last year..SC beaten when not 100% and the assumption that CC is a true 3 miler...personally on yesterdays evidence,,which looks like last years race in many ways..i'm not convinced.

Thats not to run CC down..i was hugley impressed with him..awesome display.
 
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If you run the fitness line, Dynaste also had fitness on his side and Silviniaco Conti confirmed the same form of previous renewals against Dynaste in the race. What was different was that Cue Card was back to his very best. I reckon he'll get a revision of his mark to 172 for that, when he was at best running to low 160's last year. That makes him a contender in the King George. If he repeats it (which he's never done at Kempton) he would put it up to Vautour, but I doubt it would be good enough to beat Don Cossack who I think could do a Kauto.

Shame it's unlikely Coneygree will go to Kempton, so we find out where the three big guns stand. I think they'd be right to miss it though and focus on the Hennessy as I reckon three or four of them would turn him over at Kempton whereas he has every chance of galloping them into the ground and exposing their stamina over the stiffer and longer trip in the Gold Cup. Cheltenham at the end of January would be his next race I'd imagine rather than Christmas.
 
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Maruco said:
If you run the fitness line, Dynaste also had fitness on his side and Silviniaco Conti confirmed the same form of previous renewals against Dynaste in the race. What was different was that Cue Card was back to his very best. I reckon he'll get a revision of his mark to 172 for that, when he was at best running to low 160's last year. That makes him a contender in the King George. If he repeats it (which he's never done at Kempton) he would put it up to Vautour, but I doubt it would be good enough to beat Don Cossack who I think could do a Kauto.

Shame it's unlikely Coneygree will go to Kempton, so we find out where the three big guns stand. I think they'd be right to miss it though and focus on the Hennessy as I reckon three or four of them would turn him over at Kempton whereas he has every chance of galloping them into the ground and exposing their stamina over the stiffer and longer trip in the Gold Cup.
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i'm not convinced SC ran to his best because of the clear tells we had,,if anyone wants to anser the 2 week question i'd appreciate it.

aye..lets hope that all these mouthwatering clashes aren't preceded by a load of xxx now doesn't run jobs..i can't remember having so many good hosses on the go at one time...all we need now is some 70's hurdlers spirit where top hosses meet each other aside from the festival
 
Maruco said:
To my eye Top Notch looked tight enough, and he didn't lack for fitness first time out last year and Henderson would have had him ready.
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First time out against high class race fit opponents like Irving is different than first time out againt the donkeys he faced last December.

Forget Top Notch, I take Hargam to beat Irving if they both turn up in the FF next week.
 
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What was your view of the pace and time of Irving's race EC? I'll also be interested to see DO's rating of his performance.

Just for clarity I'm not putting him up as a Champion Hurdle winner, simply saying he's a big improver, and worth his place in the race on current form. I know a few rate Old Guard's performance on Sunday as worthy enough to put him into the Champion Hurdle picture (not convinced personally), but Irving is the better of the two Nicholls inmates by some way to my eye. I'd also wait for the Xmas Hurdle rather than follow-up so quickly in the Fighting Fifth.
 
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Marb and me were discussing him earlier this week..on this thread i think..i thought he looked great FTO and did say that in the past he has been best after a break..so the fact he has back to backed so quickly suggests he has turned a corner. Can't really comment on the time as was no other race over c/d and historic data at Haydock has about as much worth as a set of Jim'll Fix It DVD's
 
Sorry Alan, I was being a bit dim. Tellwrong is a pain in the @rse.

Just on Hargam. If they do meet at Newcastle, firstly he has no form in the book yet that suggests he's a 160+ horse, and he's also unlikely to get his ground so I'd have no qualms about backing Irving in a match.

Also taking a line through Devilment I still want last seasons Triumph form to hold up before I'd be getting too excited about Peace and Co. As four year olds they're open to any amount of improvement but I want to see it first.
 
if they run the novice over the same course would have been ok Maruco..can't even do that..presume brush hurdles?

I don't rate last years Triumph form to hold up at shorter distances tbh..the first 3 look longer distance prospects to me..hargam to me now looks a horse struggling with toe at 2 miles
 
That's my take on Hargam too. Jury's out on Peace and Co and Top Notch for the moment, although I agree with most that the latter has by far the most potential.
 
Maruco said:
Also taking a line through Devilment I still want last seasons Triumph form to hold up before I'd be getting too excited about Peace and Co. As four year olds they're open to any amount of improvement but I want to see it first.
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I was thinking the same thing myself after yesterday's race, Paul, as Devilment, Hargam and Top Notch have now all been turned-over since the start of the season. P&C is probably a good bit ahead of them, but even so, I wonder if Timeform are perhaps now regretting giving him the Large 'P' in Chasers & Hurdlers. They might just have over-rated what last year's juvenile form was worth.
 
Maruco said:
What was your view of the pace and time of Irving's race EC? I'll also be interested to see DO's rating of his performance.
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I assume EC and DO realise that the race was run out on the flat course, not the normal hurdle track, and that it meant jumping only eight hurdles instead of nine.?
 
the betfair hurdle is a decent target for Triumph horses imo that seem to need that bit further than 2 mile....that long straight sets more a premium on stamina than a lot of these small field 2m graded hurdle races..the pace is usually stronger as well with lighter weight horses making the pace that bit more telling early and mid race. I'd rather win that than keep getting placed in other races
 
Looking back over time it's rare to have several horses come out of a Triumph and make it at the top table. It's not often one does, so to believe that all three are that good is a stretch.

The truth is Hargam was well beaten, and then also at Aintree. Peace and Co and Top Notch finished pretty close to each other, and I've also had the suspicion that the reputations of the Henderson three scared some trainers off to the Fred Winter when they may well have shown the form up if they'd gone to the Triumph.

For what its worth I see Top Notch being stepped up in trip, I see them resisting it with Hargam when really they should unless he's completely found out, and Peace and Co sticking to two and going to the Champion Hurdle with My Tent or Yours assuming that one's back to his best.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
I assume EC and DO realise that the race was run out on the flat course, not the normal hurdle track, and that it meant jumping only eight hurdles instead of nine.?
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I didn't realise that DG, thanks. If it's annotated in the form book instalment I'd notice it then but I really only do time ratings for jumps races when there's enough reliable information to hand, which wouldn't have been the case here.

I imagine Maruco didn't have a time rating uppermost in his mind anyway.

My immediate reaction is that in beating Fou Et Sage (OR143, rec 2lbs) and Melodic Rendezvous (151, levels) by 11.5 and 9.25 lengths respectively might get him somewhere close to the frame in an ordinary Champion Hurdle but not in a hot one, which might be the case next March. Fans of Top Notch should really be heartened by his run. Considering he's thought likely to be a top 3-miler, this was a very promising reappearance over the minimum trip.

I have reservations about Hargam. He's now twice not got up the hill at Cheltenham. He might not like uphill finishes; he might not have the stamina for two miles at the top level; I really don't know but I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole at trips in excess of two miles until he satisfies me that my concerns are without foundation.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I have reservations about Hargam. He's now twice not got up the hill at Cheltenham. He might not like uphill finishes; he might not have the stamina for two miles at the top level; I really don't know but I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole at trips in excess of two miles until he satisfies me that my concerns are without foundation.
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I can see why you'd take that view Maurice, but I think the problem is not stamina but pace. He doesn't look sharp enough to beat the best two milers. I think he needs a step up in trip on good ground. It may be that 3 miles is too far and 2 1/2 at Aintree may be a suitable end of season target. Watch him improve beyond all recognition over 2 now I've said that!
 
i've done the sectionals for the betfair and the handicap run over same c/d afterwards. The handicap was a proper test as was the betfair so an overall time comparison is perfectly valid.

Taken from the first path just after they start..the timings are Cue Card 366.0 and Vieux Lion Rouge 374.9.

VLR has run to approx 142 OHR level and carried 1 lb less than CC. CC has run 8.9 seconds faster...at that trip on the going each second is worth approx 3.5lbs per second..so CC is 31lbs faster + the lb extra in weight...........making CC running to a OHR level of 174 in winning the betfair.

That coincidentally is the same OHR level SC maintained when winning the KG last year..but he has been rated 177 at best. Cue Card running to a 174 has equalled his best OHR in winning this and he should be raised to that mark I would think by official handicapper.
 
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EC1 said:
i've done the sectionals for the betfair and the handicap run over same c/d afterwards. The handicap was a proper test as was the betfair so an overall time comparison is perfectly valid.

Taken from the first path just after they start..the timings are Cue Card 366.0 and Vieux Lion Rouge 374.9.

VLR has run to approx 142 OHR level and carried 1 lb less than CC. CC has run 8.9 seconds faster...at that trip on the going each second is worth approx 3.5lbs per second..so CC is 31lbs faster + the lb extra in weight...........making CC running to a OHR level of 174 in winning the betfair.

That coincidentally is the same OHR level SC maintained when winning the KG last year..but he has been rated 177 at best. Cue Card running to a 174 has equalled his best OHR in winning this and he should be raised to that mark I would think by official handicapper.
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Brilliant stuff as ever, EC1, but what if the handicapper puts VLR up by more than three pounds? I'll be surprised if he puts him up by less than 7lbs myself. We'll know by midweek.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Brilliant stuff as ever, EC1, but what if the handicapper puts VLR up by more than three pounds? I'll be surprised if he puts him up by less than 7lbs myself. We'll know by midweek.
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he would then have to put sun cloud ..who has had 29 races..up and the 138 he is on already looks too high..just won off 135..was put up to 140..too high..then dropped to 138 here and that looks about his mark.

Personally it won't affect my assessment as i would deem anything above 138 as too high for it..which on the day makes winner about 142. Its a matter of what you think a horse can win off..ie its true level..the handicapper puts them up to stop them winning..not to represent what they have shown on the day. If he puts the winner up 7..that doesn't mean thats its level on the day. Lets say he pu it up 10 ..you wouldn't rate CC off it at that level as its been given that to stop it winning..not to represent what it showed on the day.
 
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All fair enough, EC1. But I disagree that the handicapper is out to stop anything from winning. He's out to assess each horse accurately. He probably wouldn't use VLR's race to help him assess CC anyway, which is where you gain an edge.

I had Sun Cloud as an improver going into the race* and he got a trier's ride so I wouldn't have an issue with his being upped three or four pounds for Saturday.

I tend not to read too much into the odd run below form for an overall improver. It's usually a sign that they have a bigger race in mind somewhere along the way. I suspect Saturday was it for this half of the season.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
All fair enough, EC1. But I disagree that the handicapper is out to stop anything from winning. He's out to assess each horse accurately. He probably wouldn't use VLR's race to help him assess CC anyway, which is where you gain an edge.

I had Sun Cloud as an improver going into the race* and he got a trier's ride so I wouldn't have an issue with his being upped three or four pounds for Saturday.

I tend not to read too much into the odd run below form for an overall improver. It's usually a sign that they have a bigger race in mind somewhere along the way. I suspect Saturday was it for this half of the season.
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I think the handicapper puts horses up top side of their abilty though as he sees it DO tbh.he rarely seems to err on side of caution..rarely..its usually wins a class b..up 7+ etc.

I think without the time comparison the betfair is pretty tough to handicap..he won't use that obviously..so should be interesting..could use an average race rating in manner that TF do..I suppose..don't know really..the time angle is always my favourite if its possible to do.

Re the VLR race..it was a pretty demanding pace..Sun Cloud was favoured by how it was run..the horse that has done well is No Planning..can win off 139 on that effort as if it had been away from the front could have finished a lot closer to the first 2..beat other prominent horse 14 lengths
 
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Generous as always with your analysis, EC1. Good man.

Not sure if I agree with your thoughts on the handicappers motivation though. If all he was interested in was stopping horses from winning next-time-out, he could just raise every winner 10lbs, and he would have achieved his goal 90% of the time. Admittedly, it's not very scientific, but you don't need to be clever, if "stopping" is all you're about.

Even I will admit that the handicapper is prepared to work a little harder than this, and I'm broadly in-line with DO's interpretation of what he sets out to do.
 
The handicapper will look at the race from a number of angles and probably come down on the side of whichever offers the most plausible [to him] interpretation. The distances from first to about sixth will play a part. The more bedraggled the finish the higher he is likely to rate the winner. It can lead to flawed interpretation as a poor race might see a strung-out finish leading to the winner being put up 10lbs+, whereas a higher-class race might see the winner only go up a few pounds.

The Mackeson was a prime example of the latter. It was a deeply competitive race, strongly run yet he only put Anacotty up 5lbs.

One of the leading (northern?) trainers bemoaned the situation last year, saying that a horse can go up 10+lbs for winning an ordinary race [by a wide margin] yet the runner-up in something like the Hennessy might only go up 5lbs.

I think the method is flawed because the majority of horses that contest the top handicaps do so because they have a bit of class and their trainers reckon they are well handicapped. The competitiveness and class of the race often finds out those out of their depth.

I'll have a closer look at the Haydock form some time tomorrow but as I said I'll be surprised if VLR doesn't go up quite a bit.

Hang on.. I'll see if the new mark is already on the BHA site...

OK, looks like I was wrong about him not using the time to compare!

Because of that I was tempted to put him higher, especially when I did a time comparison with the 3m handicap chase won by Vieux Lion Rouge who is now on 146. The Betfair Chase was run 8.5 seconds faster than the closing handicap, which equates to 34lb on that ground. As Cue Card carried 1lb more I could justify 181 on that basis. I am just not confident of putting Cue Card to such a high figure from a race where none of his opponents ran to their rating.

So Vieux Lion rouge has gone up 7lbs. At least I was right about that!!

Edit - I see Perpetual (thanks, P) has added the new ORs while I was typing/checking.
 
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