Yep, its why one is 5/1 and the other is 25/1 ante post. If it was softer or worse, I'd allow him to take his chance, and wouldnt categorically rule him out.
Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup
- Thread starter Grasshopper
- Start date
Yep, its why one is 5/1 and the other is 25/1 ante post. If it was softer or worse, I'd allow him to take his chance, and wouldnt categorically rule him out.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I would be gobsmacked if they both weren't to be honest. No question Davy would have come over to ride SDC if he'd been in today's race.
Not saying they won't be very good, but both those Irish horses have done relatively little yet in the context of their prices for the Gold Cup. Both avoided the top races at Cheltenham last season. For now, FL would be above both for me for the Gold Cup.
granger
Senior Jockey
Could understand that opinion with Flem but given SDC's liking of Cheltenham and style of victory on two occasions, i'd regard him as a better option that FL
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I think O'leary thought he could win both races with his horses but FL would be an unlikely winner of the Jewson given the trip.
granger
Senior Jockey
RSA has bottomed many very good horses, they always had the GC in mind with this one and as you say FL was in the RSA
With the dilution of the Novice chases at the festival this is something that will become more widespread
With the dilution of the Novice chases at the festival this is something that will become more widespread
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Yes. But I think from a punting point of view it gives us fresh angles. I really liked Oscar's well first race over fences and he's a tasty price for the Jewson on Betfair. I don't mind risking small amounts of money at 20+/1.
granger
Senior Jockey
OW could be an interesting one alright, as long as his fall the last day didn't take too much of him
I don't like the not knowing element when a horse can be bar a few points the same price in 3 races
I don't like the not knowing element when a horse can be bar a few points the same price in 3 races
swedish chef
At the Start
A very impressive display from Bobs Worth I don't think he'll be out of the first 2 in the GC if he turns up fit and well. I still think SDC could be something very special but does have stamina to prove. Not yet totally convinced about Flemenstar but aware he could prove me wrong.
I'll never back a horse ridden by SWC again he's just not professional enough to present a horse right at the fences when up against the pro's imo, but I wish him well.
I'll never back a horse ridden by SWC again he's just not professional enough to present a horse right at the fences when up against the pro's imo, but I wish him well.
granger
Senior Jockey
chroniclandlord
Senior Jockey
incredible jump
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On The Bridle
At the Start
Great shot....Tidal Bay made up some ground to the line.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Tidal Bay was never more than five lengths off BW for most of the race. BW stepped up a gear to run FL down as they took the last three fences and TB couldn't go with him until after two out and even on the run-in BW was edging clear again with the loose horse for company.
That shot of FL two out is Pendilesque.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I think it's perfectly possible but you'd have to ask is that enough to be winning a Gold Cup in a year where some of the best novices for years are appearing in Ireland.
Surely the handicapper can't put him up for yesterdays win? He was getting 6lbs from a 166 rated chaser and beat him just over 3 lengths unless of course he totally rubbers Tidal Bay and assesses him on where his old rival 1st Lieutenant finished which wouldn't seem very logical to me.
According to the handicapper Denman improved 15lbs between the Hennessy and the Gold Cup I think we may find Bobsworth will have to improve a lot more than 7lbs to win what could be an exceptionally competitive race in March.
Not saying he can't do it he's a cracking horse I just think the bookies have over reacted considering the amount of potentially top class horse out there and its way too early to be thinking he's the best around.
Of course the bookies always do react when anything heading to the Festival wins anything half decent. 80% of the time they are a mile off by the time March comes round but it gets then business.
I see Bog Warrior hacked up yesterday in his confidence booster and they're saying Last Instalment will make his comeback just after Xmas although Fenton has mentioned Ryanair for him as an option and of course if the brilliant Flemenstar gets the trip the rest may as well stay at home........long way to go yet and there's some Irish Fella called Mullins hovering around somewhere who might have a say in things when the time comes
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Desert Orchid
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It would be unheard of for the handicapper not to hike a Hennessy winner. It would be rare for the first three or four not to be hiked to some degree. I suspect he'll put both the first two up to 172 and leave the other principals. I suppose he could raise FL a token pound or two.
The skinny odds offered about Bobs Worth yesterday for the Gold Cup were laughable. So far I haven't suggested he would win the big one and it would take another convincing, improved performance in the meantime to have him on the radar. He should be a double-figure price.
Desert Orchid
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I take it you mean first time round. Denman also won a G1 next time out in Ireland with no OR next to his name so it's hard to tell if the official put him up 15lbs for Newbury or upped him in instalments. I suspect the former. He won the Hennessy off 161 (cf BW 160) by 11 lengths, 8 and 1 (cf BW 3.25, 5 and 6), so I don't imagine he'll want to put up Bobs Worth by as much as he did Denman and at this stage it wouldn't be hard to argue that Denman was a better winner and probably a better horse.
Does anyone recall what price they offered him after his win first time round?
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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Anyone crazy enough to offer double-figures about Bob's Worth for the Gold Cup would get killed in the stampede.
Trip
rovenCourse & Distance: Proven
Class: Proven
Ground: Unlikely to be an issue
Jockey: Top drawer
Trainer: Top drawer
You can add 'Game', 'Genuine', 'Consistent' and 'Progressive' too.
He is by far-and-away the likeliest winner of the Gold Cup on all available evidence, imo, and is a more than worthy favourite.
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granger
Senior Jockey
He should have won like he did yesterday
He has the best form for the blue riband by far at the moment on this seasons ratings
Two bigguns this side of the water will shake up this market very soon however
He has the best form for the blue riband by far at the moment on this seasons ratings
Two bigguns this side of the water will shake up this market very soon however
Does Bobs Worth have to face Kauto Star?
Desert Orchid
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By far? Tidal Bay gave him 6lbs and was beaten 3lbs. Rating that form literally would make Tidal Bay 3lbs better than him. Would anyone fancy Tidal Bay at single-figure odds for the Gold Cup?
You could tick all those boxes for Tidal Bay too on the evidence of his last three races.Trip
Course & Distance: Proven
Class: Proven
Ground: Unlikely to be an issue
Jockey: Top drawer
Trainer: Top drawer
You can add 'Game', 'Genuine', 'Consistent' and 'Progressive' too.
I reckon his skinny odds have already factored in further improvement.
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Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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With the very-obvious exception of "Progressive".
As for your first question, again, the very-obvious response is to not rate the bare lbs-for-lengths form too literally.
granger
Senior Jockey
Who is more likely to improve for that race? Tidal Bay ran a very good race, BW is the progressive horse and will improve from that yesterday. I don't see how TB has too much improvement in him
I think this season's gold cup is shaping up as a critics/raters dream. Would be interesting to hear Henderson's take on which horse he believes has his best chance in the Gold Cup. Id be surprised if Geraghty, given the choice (something befalls Sam Waley Cohen), would swop.
Bet365 have Tidal Bay at 14s for the Gold Cup. I think Bobs Worth's odds are fair. Something else might turn out to be better than him, but I cant see him out of the frame if turning up in March.