Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup

Euronymous said:
FL didn't settle that great in the RSA, has the advantage of a recent run and a proper gallop will suit him. I think the price difference between the two is excessive.
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Considering the size of the prize, expecting Bobs Worth to be beaten for fitness might be a trifle optimistic. Hill's 11/2 is just too generous, and hopefully, they'll pay for it.
 
Not a form guru, not really a horse punter. I just like the look of Harry the viking at such a big price with 5 places. Not often he will carry the sort of weight he has been thrown today.
 
I think his (HOJ) Cheltenham form was an improvement on previous form. I wondered if maybe they'd still left something to work on and felt he would be a player here but I must admit to being pretty much hooked on second-season chasers for this.
 
I reckon the 5/1 is a perfectly fair price about Bob's Worth. Has exactly the right profile for the race, and with the ground having come his way, I'm hoping his class can see him through. For my money, he is a better horse than both Trablogan and Burton Port, and I'm less enthusiastic than others about how good a renewal than this. I'll be disappointed if he doesn't go very close.
 
Grasshopper said:
I reckon the 5/1 is a perfectly fair price about Bob's Worth. Has exactly the right profile for the race, and with the ground having come his way, I'm hoping his class can see him through. For my money, he is a better horse than both Trablogan and Burton Port, and I'm less enthusiastic than others about how good a renewal than this. I'll be disappointed if he doesn't go very close.
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:cool::cool:
 
Anyone who doubts PFN's abilities as a trainer need only look at how he's rejuvenated Tidal Bay. Brilliant trainer - perhaps they should send Diamond Harry to Ditcheat...
 
Desert Orchid said:
First Lieutenant and Bobs Worth, second and first respectively in the RSA Chase at the festival are the ‘profile’ horses: second season chasers with the prospect of challenging for the very top honours later in the season yet still unexposed in terms of their handicap mark. ...

It’s hard to envisage First Lieutenant turning the form around but he shouldn’t be too far behind Bobs Worth who will carry the burden of being the main selection.

The likes of Hold On Julio and Fruity O’Rooney could be fancied for some of the decent Saturday staying handicap chases this winter but this company might just be too hot, while The Package struck me as much improved this season when taking the big Wincanton race in which Diamond Harry flopped.
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Happy enough with that.
 
BennyB said:
Anyone who doubts PFN's abilities as a trainer need only look at how he's rejuvenated Tidal Bay. Brilliant trainer - perhaps they should send Diamond Harry to Ditcheat...
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I've been really rather rude about Tidal Bay on occassions, but was genuinely chuffed to see him run such a willing race today.

However, I suspect his recent rejuvenation may say more about Howard Johnson's training methods, than it does about Paul Nicholls'.
 
Grasshopper said:
I've been really rather rude about Tidal Bay on occassions, but was genuinely chuffed to see him run such a willing race today.

However, I suspect his recent rejuvenation may say more about Howard Johnson's training methods, than it does about Paul Nicholls'.
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To be fair, Grassy, I think it's more down to way PN (+ Ruby, & whoever else advises him) has placed the horse, rather than how he's been trained.
Tidal Bay's always had any amount of class, but he's a slow jumper of fences, and he needs help from either trip or ground to keep in contention. HJ ran him just 4/19 in excess of 3m over fences - PN has run him 2/2.
Had the ground not dried out, TB might well have won today (and PN accorded the status of Deity) but there's little left for TB now - except maybe a wet Whitbread or the National.
Imvho, it's Ruby who reads the form book, and PN who collects the plaudits.
 
100% down to how he has been trained. PFN was interviewed in the momring by Luck, and he went into details about how he never has him up the hill, just flat gallops and they take it very very easy with him. HOJO broke the horse PFN fixed it.
 
reet hard said:
Had the ground not dried out, TB might well have won today (and PN accorded the status of Deity) but there's little left for TB now - except maybe a wet Whitbread or the National.
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Tidal Bay will probably go up from 166 to about 173 for today's super performance (the highlight of my day, I have to say, even though I backed BW) so most handicaps will be out for him but there should be a few Grade 2s he can aim for. I also thought maybe the Scottish National, a race Nicholls loves, but it's seldom very soft for that. Aintree might be his best chance if it went soft as the handicapper would probably bring him back down to 166 for that, to give connections an incentive to run.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Tidal Bay will probably go up from 166 to about 173 for today's super performance (the highlight of my day, I have to say, even though I backed BW) so most handicaps will be out for him but there should be a few Grade 2s he can aim for. I also thought maybe the Scottish National, a race Nicholls loves, but it's seldom very soft for that. Aintree might be his best chance if it went soft as the handicapper would probably bring him back down to 166 for that, to give connections an incentive to run.
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Why is the Gold Cup beyond contemplation?
 
OTB said:
100% down to how he has been trained. PFN was interviewed in the momring by Luck, and he went into details about how he never has him up the hill, just flat gallops and they take it very very easy with him. HOJO broke the horse PFN fixed it.
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Aye well, we'll see how he performs over the bare 3m or on faster ground - if & when we do, we'll see how much he's 'fixed it'.
 
Really enjoyed watching the race despite doing my conkers on it. Always been a bit lukewarm on Bob's Worth for some reason but he's a worthy Gold Cup fav after that (although if Flemenstar and SDC meet-up soon I think we could get something spine tingling). First Lieutenant ran a blinder but I do think they gallop he set might have been a bit too much.
 
HawkWing said:
Why is the Gold Cup beyond contemplation?
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While Synchronised may only have been a 167 horse when winning the Gold Cup this year, the two 180+ favourites disappointed. That doesn't happen often.

I'd also wonder if they're avoiding galloping him up the hill at home, they might not want him to be galloping up and down the contours of Cheltenham.

I'd also wonder if there weren't a few stable inmates believed to be more likely candidates.
 
I think its unlikely myself, but that he is splitting the RSA first two in the Hennessey on ground as good as he would want it, while giving weight, to rule out the Gold Cup would be shortsighted. I think its unlikely that he will win in, but he has shown that he has run well at the course before, and I would certainty being aiming the horse at it. I think, given the change in trainer and seemingly improved jumping, he would certainly be an interesting wild card in the race. If it came up as soft as last year...

A few stablemates. Silvianico granted, Kauto Stone??

Forgot about Al Ferof......my error. Put him up in the Ante Post comp!
 
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I think the big difference between him and the RSA horses is that it is not unusual for the latter to improve a stone and more in their second season. It's hard to imagine TB having that kind of scope at his age. Bobs Worth probably improved past TB today. By the time Cheltenham comes round, it isn't unreasonable to imagine his having improved another 7lbs in the interim.
 
Euronymous said:
Really enjoyed watching the race despite doing my conkers on it. Always been a bit lukewarm on Bob's Worth for some reason but he's a worthy Gold Cup fav after that (although if Flemenstar and SDC meet-up soon I think we could get something spine tingling). First Lieutenant ran a blinder but I do think they gallop he set might have been a bit too much.
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Killer jump 2 out I think, was some leap

Game horse, will be better on better ground but so too will BW. Maybe setting him up off the pace might aid him

Would hope that at least one of Flem or SDC will be superior than FL
 
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