Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup

To Grasshopper and Granger:

I was replying to the assertion that BW has "by far" "the best form" "on this season's ratings". He doesn't. Tidal Bay and Roberto Goldback had a higher rating yesterday. Tidal Bay's will go up too. Silviniaco Conti already had a higher rating than Tidal Bay. And Long Run's OR is another 10lbs ahead of that (but not on this season's form and there has to be a serious question about whether he'll ever be able to hit that level again).

My point is that BW's Gold Cup odds already factor in improvement still to be made. I believe he will improve again but it is not guaranteed and we won't know until he next runs how much yesterday's race took out of him.

I wouldn't be interested in the current odds about BW. There is plenty of water to run under the bridges over the next three months.

I also think you could argue that Tidal Bay's form is progressive over the last six months. Who's to say he isn't only now just starting to fulfil the potential he was showing as a novice? (I don't necessarily think he is. I'm just making an arguable point.)

I have no axe to grind with BW. No reason to have a downer on him. After all, I backed the bastert yesterday! I'm just trying to be realistic about his Gold Cup prospects.
 
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That's fair enough, DO. It's merely a difference in how we're interpreting those ratings.

I often find the way other people read the form peculiar; though in much the same way as someone working for SETI might find the 9-to-5 peculiar. I've lost count of the number of times I've sniffily ignored a perfectly obvious formline, in favour of the equivent of looking at specks deep in the mist, listening for something that probably isn't there.

My way is no better or smarter than anyone elses, which probably explains why I'm typing this out, instead of getting jugged on pina coladas. :cool:
 
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And to an extent interpretation is the key. If you look back at my own figures for yesterday, BW was well down the list but I learned many years ago they are no more than a numerical reflection of the form in the book; that certain types were likely to defy the figures.

Earlier in the thread there was also the debate about whether we should rely on improvers or stick with what we know. I made the point then that the vast majority of my bets are on improvers. I am particularly fond of my own '+p' ratings. The closer they are to the top of the bare figures the more I like them!

I also like reading contributions from people who assess form visually. I do not believe I am gifted enough at that side of things so tend to rely on my figures and how I interpret them.

I could get into sectionals if the bookies didn't have a stranglehold on British racing and we got access to them for all races.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It would be unheard of for the handicapper not to hike a Hennessy winner. It would be rare for the first three or four not to be hiked to some degree. I suspect he'll put both the first two up to 172 and leave the other principals.
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Very nearly right. He's put both up to 171 and left FL alone but dropped The Package a pound.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Understandable given the distances at the finish, but I was left with the distinct impression that First Leftenant could have finished closer if he had been ridden with a bit more restraint.
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Fair comment, Bar, though I reckon Bobsworth would have won just as readily, whatever was thrown at him.

The couple of defeats notwithstanding, this horse just wants to go past, imo, and I love his apparent enthusiasm for his job. If there's something to not like about him, I'm toiling to identify it.

As you can probably tell, I'm somewhat smitten with this yoke.
 
It's more Jodami's racing demeanour and physique that he reminds me of, DO.

Edit: On reflection, maybe less so his physique and more the way he carries himself.
 
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I think Jodami was regularly described as a big, old-fashioned type of chaser.

I'm not sure BW would be described in those terms. I don't have an eye for horses in that sense but he strikes me as being more wiry than Jodami. I can see why Limestone Lad would spring to mind.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Jodami couldn't win the Hennessy off 10-2 (OR 151).
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Subsequently proved 27lb above that mark, and the only Gold Cup winner I recall where the jockey actually took a cheeky pull on the reins approaching the last.
Big, black, and beautiful.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I think Jodami was regularly described as a big, old-fashioned type of chaser.

I'm not sure BW would be described in those terms. I don't have an eye for horses in that sense but he strikes me as being more wiry than Jodami. I can see why Limestone Lad would spring to mind.
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I agree with you on the physique point, DO - I edited my post to reflect as much. Also agree partly on the "wiry" desceiption, though there's an indefinable 'something else' about him beyond that too.

Maybe there is a touch of the old-fashioned-chaser about Bobsworth, without being one on looks? I dunno. He certainly looks like something that could have been turned-out by Capt. Foster or Arthur Stevenson.
 
reet hard said:
Subsequently proved 27lb above that mark, and the only Gold Cup winner I recall where the jockey actually took a cheeky pull on the reins approaching the last.
Big, black, and beautiful.
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Thanks for reminding me...

I back the bastert in the Hennessy and let it go in the Gold Cup :mad:
 
Has anone else done an analysis of the times for Hennessy day?

I base my time ratings on the old Raceform standard times and am thinking both the big race and the one won by Ulck Du Lin were pretty fast run. This would certainly confirm the visual impression watching the Hennessy unfold but I wouldn't have thought the other race looked that fast but these two races are miles faster than the other two chases on the card.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Has anone else done an analysis of the times for Hennessy day?

I base my time ratings on the old Raceform standard times and am thinking both the big race and the one won by Ulck Du Lin were pretty fast run. This would certainly confirm the visual impression watching the Hennessy unfold but I wouldn't have thought the other race looked that fast but these two races are miles faster than the other two chases on the card.
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Not a clocker, DO, but I did notice that Parsnip Pete (Thurs) clocked an inordinately fast time for a novice over the same c/d as Ulck Du Lin?
Visually, I'd say the Hennessy was strongly run, as they went off a million in the early stages.

Edit
Had a quick look at Master Minded's 08 Game Spirit win, and they started from exactly the same spot. He also recorded his best ever t/s figure then, which leads one to suspect the RP standard time for that c/d is 'iffy'?
 
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The standards I use are different from the RP ones but Parsnip Pete's time was by far the fastest on the day. However, I learned years ago not to get sucked into stand-alone fast times. I have this theory that the vast majority of race times are not reliable and that it can be dangerous to use the times for an entire card to extrapolate a figure for each race. I think, especially with midweek racing, there might just be one true-run race on the card and there often isn't one at all.

If Parsnip Pete was inordinately fast, so too was the runner-up so you are right to have your suspicions.

Master Minded's time, though, was backed up by a huge form rating was it not?
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I think, especially with midweek racing, there might just be one true-run race on the card and there often isn't one at all.
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Think so myself (inc weekends) & have done for a long while, though you're the first clocker I've known actually fess up to it.:)
Made a balls of the Master Minded time (It was the 2010 Game Spirit, and the 2nd fastest t/s of his career), though I do believe it's the only top class race of the season over that c/d, which might help expain the shaky ST.
 
If you had read Stav's book Reet you'll see his whole method is based on avoiding the fact that some days no races are truly run..i told you to buy it on TRF :lol:

Truly run races on the flat far outweigh NH ones..always have and always will
 
EC1 said:
Truly run races on the flat far outweigh NH ones..always have and always will
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I think Flat races are generally more truly run but I'd still argue only one or two per midweek meeting - and sometimes none at all - are. The big Saturday meetings are far better for proper races.

I tend to use time ratings very sparingly, preferring to rely on form lines.
 
Marble said:
Cape Tribulation, (Jefferson has worked out the key to him over hurdles based on Cheltenham/Aintree double at least, and has mentioned the Hennessy as a possible target because he doesn't fancy taking on Big Bucks, & he's only rated 140 over fences).
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I can see where I was coming from now!:D

Not many horses I'd cheer on against Imperial Commander but I was cheering Cape Tribulation, a really deserved win and what a prospect.:)
 
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I am very fond of Cape Tribulation too and his Pertemps win saved my festival last year but I most certainly was not cheering him past Imperial Commander - who ran like the Last of the Titans that he is .
 
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