Hennessy Entries

I got a chance to look again at the race last night and examine the form.

I've settled on a figure of 182+ for Denman but I reckon the horse to take from the race will be Dream Alliance.

Raceform/RP seem to be of the opinion that all bar the first two ran below form. According to my figures, the third, fourth, fifth and sixth all ran very close to their previous ratings (based on ½lb per length) and while Denman has improved something like 11lbs, Dream Alliance has improved over 20lbs. I suspect the yard must have reckoned they had a real 'job' horse with this one and if the official handicapper takes the same view as Raceform/RP, there has to be the chance Dream Alliance will not be raised for the Welsh National. I reckon the horse could probably defy a 7lb hike so I intend to start punting him for Chepstow as of this weekend. My only worry would be insufficient recovery time after a pretty tough race first time up. He looked to have a much harder race than Denman.
 
Some horses do perform at their best when carrying condition but it coincides with them being at their best when fresh, not BECAUSE they are carrying condition. Even then, it would be slight, rather than clearly fat.

There, thats my inexperienced view
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Thats a very decent explanation.
 
Nick Mordins view (taken from his web site)

IT'S TOO EARLY TO START RAVING ABOUT DENMAN

It's frustrating to speed ratings compilers like myself when the early pace of a big race is so slow it hurts the final time. There's no formula that can tell you how fast the winner would have run if the early pace had been stronger.

This is the case with DENMAN (33) who won a renewal of the Hennessy where the field did little more than hack along for the first ten fences. For comparison, if the two races had been run on the same going, Denman would have jumped the tenth fence in a time 6.4 seconds slower than the front runner in last year's Hennessy.

It's impossible to make up 6.4 seconds in the second half of even the longest race. Denman managed to make up 3.75 seconds, 0.8 of which came on the run in. Even so I don't think he achieved anything more than State Of Play did when winning the same race last year. After all, the runner up Dream Alliance (30) is a long way off Gold Cup class. In addition, although he finished stronger than State Of Play, Denman did begin to tire noticeably on the run to the last and had to be ridden pretty hard to keep going in the closing stages.

This is one of those situations where I have to differ strongly with those who make handicap ratings. They rate this performance one of the best by a steeplechaser in the last decade. I've yet to give Denman a speed rating better than 39 on my scale. That's Grade 1 for a novice chaser but doesn't buy you better than third or fourth place in an average Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Denman may well go on to run as fast as the handicappers now say he can. But until he does I'm going to oppose him when he tackles genuine Grade 1 chasers.
 
Was he there??!! I was... I don't remember Denman being ridden at all in the run in - he was going very easily! - and going away, whcih he could have done further if asked to.
And the 2006 Hennessy, which I also attended, was run in glorious sunshine iirc on pretty decent ground. Yet State of Play was pretty knackered

Quickening on *Heavy* is always impressive and implies something in reserve, imo
Some people just have to try to be different don't they?
 
Well he lives in New York at the moment, and recently admitted to hand timing his sections off U Tube, which can only be hit and miss at best. I'm more inclined to think he's talking a bit of nonesense. I think he's increasingly desperate to appear contrary (probably because he needs the oxygen of publicity to maintain his book sales) and taking up such positions probably explains it.
 
Mordin has a tendency to be a contrarian (actually, it's an obsession), which is probably (actually, make that a definitely) linked to his money-fuelled need for attention..

Strictly on speed figures (a subject I know precious little about) though, he might just have a point on this one, as they did go so slow for such a long way.. any of you speed gurus care to chime in?
 
I really don't think so trackside. The race was run on **HEAVY** so of course they went off a bit steady; but Denman took the least a long way out and was never in any trouble at all - far from it, he had plenty in hand, and Mordin's assertion that he was being got after is ludicrous.
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@Dec 7 2007, 10:25 PM
Mordin's assertion that he was being got after is ludicrous.
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Disagree with that in a certain sense.

Watch it again Headstrong and you'll see that Thomas, inexplicably actually gives him a smack no more than a hundred or so yards from the line..

Not sure whether the horse was getting tired or Thomas just 'making sure', but the notion that he was heavily eased on the run-in is simply not true..
 
Denman's time rating by my figures was on the slow side. Considering how strongly he appeared to come up the straight, the pace must have been very slow for the first two miles or thereabouts.

I wouldn't read any more than that into it. When I checked tonight, I see that the third to eighth home were all close to their marks and the others weren't far off it (at ½lb per length).
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@Dec 7 2007, 09:38 AM
Raceform/RP seem to be of the opinion that all bar the first two ran below form. According to my figures, the third, fourth, fifth and sixth all ran very close to their previous ratings (based on ½lb per length) and while Denman has improved something like 11lbs, Dream Alliance has improved over 20lbs. I suspect the yard must have reckoned they had a real 'job' horse with this one and if the official handicapper takes the same view as Raceform/RP, there has to be the chance Dream Alliance will not be raised for the Welsh National. I reckon the horse could probably defy a 7lb hike so I intend to start punting him for Chepstow as of this weekend. My only worry would be insufficient recovery time after a pretty tough race first time up. He looked to have a much harder race than Denman.
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I see the Welsh National weights were already out so DA can run off the same mark as at Newbury. However, he's drifting at betfair so I'm holding fire with the bets for the meantime. It might just be that he's showing signs of having had a hard race this early but I'm wussing it all the same.
 
Originally posted by trackside528+Dec 7 2007, 10:33 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (trackside528 @ Dec 7 2007, 10:33 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Headstrong@Dec 7 2007, 10:25 PM
Mordin's assertion that he was being got after is ludicrous.
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Disagree with that in a certain sense.

Watch it again Headstrong and you'll see that Thomas, inexplicably actually gives him a smack no more than a hundred or so yards from the line..

Not sure whether the horse was getting tired or Thomas just 'making sure', but the notion that he was heavily eased on the run-in is simply not true.. [/b][/quote]
Didn't say he was *eased* and didn't mean to imply it - just that he seemed to run on of his own volition and ST didn't seem to need to 'get after him', tho watching that YouTube rerun I do see those slaps which hardly seem necessary - esp the last one! In realtime, the horse didn't seem to be stopping or faltering at all, and he was miles in front. I was standing watching with Crazyhorse on the O&T/Annual Members steps which is opposite the big screen and the run-in so we had a good view!

I've watched Hennessys where all the horses inc the winner were being 'got after' all down the straight - ie very hard fought finishes. There was no point this time, with Denman, nor really with the second as he wasn't going to be caught either [imo!]. 0aybe young Sam just got overexcited and went onto autopilot - or overdrive! He wasn't going to risk a "Central House" moment after all
Anyway, I think the clip bears out my impression that Mordin is talking ballocks

Fantastic to watch it again, thanks for putting that up, my mac doesn't support ruk/atr reruns :(
 
Last year's Hennessy was not run on goodish ground, it was run on very tiring soft ground in which only half the field completed.
 
This was the one I've been looking for - I remembered a very long Hennessy thread debating whether Denman was any good or not!
 
Originally posted by Shadow Leader@Jul 2 2008, 12:19 AM
This was the one I've been looking for - I remembered a very long Hennessy thread debating whether Denman was any good or not!
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He's not ~ nowt but a selling hurdler.
 
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