Hennessy

Desert Orchid said:
I can see where you're coming from. The Tother One ran a great race too but you half-expect that from an unexposed type. Ellerslie George was regarded as being exposed but my figures say he put up a much improved performance there and I'd rate his improvement as more surprising than TTO's.
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He was pulled out of the race yesterday though, which is why we shouldn't consider him for this (see my earlier post).
 
I believe Denman can't win off that mark and his presence is due to him helping the stablemate run off 10-3.
 
SteveM said:
What A Friend must be worth considering. Set to carry just above 10 stone, assuming his stablemate Denman takes part. He looks a bit short in the betting to me at second favourite.
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I'm a fan of WHAT A FRIEND. Price does look on the short side (7.6 on BF). With Ruby riding Denman any idea who will ride W A F?
 
What a Friend has Sam Thomas on board...so scratch that one!!! Carruthers for me....he'll love only carrying 10st for a change and they may not be able to catch him!
 
Denman (IRE) 9.g 11st 12lb
Joe Lively (IRE) 10.g 11st 0lb
Mon Mome (FR) 9.g 10st 13lb
Roll Along (IRE) 9.g 10st 9lb
My Will (FR) 9.g 10st 9lb
Barbers Shop 7.g 10st 8lb
Killyglen (IRE) 7.g 10st 6lb
War of Attrition (IRE) 10.g 10st 6lb
Casey Jones (IRE) 8.g 10st 4lb
What A Friend 6.g 10st 4lb
An Accordion (IRE) 8.g 10st 4lb
Gone To Lunch (IRE) 9.g 10st 3lb
Darkness 10.g 10st 3lb
Snowy Morning (IRE) 9.g 10st 2lb
Carruthers 6.g 10st 1lb
Chelsea Harbour (IRE) 9.g 10st 0lb
Cappa Bleu (IRE) 7.g 10st 0lb
Ballyfitz 9.g 9st 12lb
Kornati Kid 7.g 9st 11lb
Nenuphar Collonges (FR) 8.g 9st 11lb
Niche Market (IRE) 8.g 9st 11lb
Calgary Bay (IRE) 6.g 9st 11lb
State of Play 9.g 9st 11lb
New Alco (FR) 8.g 9st 11lb
Siegemaster (IRE) 8.g 9st 10lb
Arbor Supreme (IRE) 7.g 9st 8lb
Dream Alliance 8.g 9st 8lb
Horner Woods (IRE) 7.g 9st 8lb
According To Pete 8.g 9st 8lb
Offshore Account (IRE) 9.g 9st 7lb
Ponmeoath (IRE) 9.g 9st 6lb
Chief Dan George (IRE) 9.g 9st 5lb
Operation Houdini (IRE) 7.g 9st 5lb
Hennessy (IRE) 8.g 9st 4lb
Treacle (IRE) 8.g 9st 0lb
The Package 6.g 8st 12lb
Freeze Up (IRE) 7.g 8st 2lb
 
12lb clear of the next in the weights. Denman is pushing a lot of them out of the handicap proper, which is to his advantage. The one's to watch will probably come from around the cut off point.
 
I have Kornati Kid, Gone To Lunch and Cappa Bleu (too much made of the Aintree run) as my three against the field.
 
rorydelargy said:
Kornati Kid is quite interesting on his Towton Novices' Chase run.
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...only 3lb out at the moment... although that's probably just about as far down as I would want to look as things stand. Carruthers looks well placed on 10st 1lb (getting 25lb from Denman). Weights will rise at the 24-hour stage if Denman is withdrawn.
 
Carruthers might be inconvenienced by his running style although Batchelor appeared to have responded to his RSA disaster by not trying to take Ellerslie George on last time .

Barber's Shop might well still be improving and could go very well off 10-8 and Ballyfitz off 10-0 if the Paddy Power hasn't taken too much out of him .

I wouldn't rule Denman out at all - this is his track .
 
Ardross said:
Carruthers might be inconvenienced by his running style although Batchelor appeared to have responded to his RSA disaster by not trying to take Ellerslie George on last time .

Barber's Shop might well still be improving and could go very well off 10-8 and Ballyfitz off 10-0 if the Paddy Power hasn't taken too much out of him .

I wouldn't rule Denman out at all - this is his track .
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I've been thinking about Barber's Shop too. On paper he looks a bet, but I'm not sure. Will he stay with these in a slog?
 
do some horses simply carry weight better than others? I think Denman is so incredibly strong and powerful that the mark isnt the anchor it would be to others. And its true that this really is his track. I think hes backable
 
I'm of the thinking that DENMAN is not the horse of old. To me he seems to have lost a gear or 2. At his peak he could step up a gear at the business end and start grinding the opposition into submission, I don't feel he has that ability anymore.

In winning his Gold Cup he also left his career behind.
 
I can't believe how quick people are to right him off. The one race that suited him last year he really wasn't asked the question and still ran not that far below his best. I hope all the pundits are against him in the press this weekend and help him drift to a monster price.
 
clivex said:
do some horses simply carry weight better than others? I think Denman is so incredibly strong and powerful that the mark isnt the anchor it would be to others. And its true that this really is his track. I think hes backable
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The significance isn't the weight on his back, it's what he has to give away that is the stumbling block. Is a couple of stone either way of much significance to a horse that weighs in excess of 450 kilos. Denman is fully exposed these days and certainly wasn't at his best last year. To win the Hennessy off 174, he'll need to be and at 4/1 I couldn't back him at 4/1 to do so. I think he'll drift to 6/1+ on the day.
 
Can anyone explain why denman was so coservatively ridden in the gold cup and totesport bowl were they minding him for this season or has he become a plodder?
 
I wouldn't say he has become a plodder but I do think he has dropped a couple of gears.

This is not a situation I want to be correct in as I would love to have a back-to-peak DENMAN racing this year, however, there is no room in punting for sentiment....
 
Nicholls was of the opinion that he didn't have the condition on him to be ridden like the year before in the Gold Cup.
 
I think some horses do carry weight better, which can at times make a mockery of accepted handicapping principles.

When this question is asked - as it is every so often - I keep coming back to Roman Warrior. This horse put up some G1-rated handicapping performances under 10st yet couldn't beat G1 horses off 9st.

Denman could well be such a horse and I think he has a great chance on Saturday.

At the moment, that's not to say I will be backing him. I went through the weights last night and there are a few very interesting entries further down, but if Denman gets to dictate his own comfortable pace he just might not stop.
 
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