Hennessy

Desert Orchid said:
This horse put up some G1-rated handicapping performances under 10st yet couldn't beat G1 horses off 9st.

Denman could well be such a horse and I think he has a great chance on Saturday.
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How many more Grade 1's off levels does Denman need to win for you to believe that he can do it?
 
That's not what I meant. On his G1 form, Denman is very close to Kauto Star on my figures. I'd favour Kauto in a match on the basis of his turn of foot but would fancy Denman to beat anything else around. I don't think I under-rate Denman.

I don't think Denman is handicapped to win the Hennessy but I think he could 'do a Roman Warrior' and defy the weight differentials.
 
If he can still do what he did in the 2008 Gold Cup, I fully agree that he's handicapped to go very close. I just think there are better bets to be had this season than taking the 4/1 that he still is.
 
Euronymous said:
Can't see it myself, not with those front runners. I think you want a decent staying type here and Killyglen fits the bill.
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Thanks Euro... that's what I was thinking about BS too (despite him looking good on paper).

I haven't got a feel for Killyglen other than he's probably not good enough... although plenty appear to fancy his chance.
 
clivex said:
do some horses simply carry weight better than others? I think Denman is so incredibly strong and powerful that the mark isnt the anchor it would be to others. And its true that this really is his track. I think hes backable
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Yes Denman carries weight particularly well. Don't be put off if you fancy him.
 
Narrowing the Field said:
I'm of the thinking that DENMAN is not the horse of old. To me he seems to have lost a gear or 2. At his peak he could step up a gear at the business end and start grinding the opposition into submission, I don't feel he has that ability anymore.

In winning his Gold Cup he also left his career behind.
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Give the horse a chance! No one yet knows if he is the horse of old. All I'd say about it at the moment is that it was a great achievement to finish where he did in the Gold Cup considering how physically spare he was last season (they had nothing to work on).

He's much heavier again this season (so they have plenty to work off, which is a good thing) and has had no setbacks in training.
 
Euronymous said:
I can't believe how quick people are to right him off. The one race that suited him last year he really wasn't asked the question and still ran not that far below his best. I hope all the pundits are against him in the press this weekend and help him drift to a monster price.
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Quite agree.
 
SteveM said:
Give the horse a chance! No one yet knows if he is the horse of old. All I'd say about it at the moment is that it was a great achievement to finish where he did in the Gold Cup considering how physically spare he was last season (they had nothing to work on).

He's much heavier again this season (so they have plenty to work off, which is a good thing) and has had no setbacks in training.
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That's fair enough, Steve, but who wants to take 4 or 5/1 about him coming back to his best? At those odds, you have to be pretty certain that he will run very close to the best of his form. Considering his profile coming into the race, I couldn't be anywhere near enough confident, and at Evs to lay the place, I think he has to be taken on.
 
I wouldn't offer evens for a place lay.

If I fancied Denman I'd be tempted by evens to be in the first four, field size permitting. It's the kind of odds that would appeal to me. After all, £10ew at 4/1 (¼ odds 1-4) will just get your £20 stake back if it's placed. £20 at evens to be in the first four will double your money.
 
Grasshopper said:
That's fair enough, Steve, but who wants to take 4 or 5/1 about him coming back to his best? At those odds, you have to be pretty certain that he will run very close to the best of his form. Considering his profile coming into the race, I couldn't be anywhere near enough confident, and at Evs to lay the place, I think he has to be taken on.
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This is also fair enough. I've not taken this price (but also would not put those off who want to back him). I'd prefer to watch him run a decent race and finish thereabouts (which is why I'm looking round for something else for the Hennessy). I have earlier taken all of the 9/1 and 8/1 that I can for the Gold Cup though. I believe he has a better chance of winning the 2010 Gold Cup than the 2009 Hennessy. I wouldn't rule out him winning both however.
 
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"Good to Soft/soft in places We have had 5mm in the last 24hrs Mon Wet start becoming bright and showery later Tues/Wed Sunshine and showers with rain overnight Thurs/Fri/Sat Sunshine & Blustery showers. Rails have been set out wide on both courses."
 
Barbers Shop for me not felt this confident about a bet since IC in the PPGC last year. Conveniently missed several good races for this one IMO.
And stable have one of the best records for FTO.

Bish Bash Bosh help yourselves in time for Christmas !!!
 
The money today suggests State of Play is likely to line up at Newbury rather than Newcastle and he must have a very strong chance. The handicapper looks to have been very lenient dropping him back to 145 given his Charlie Hall form last year and how he shaped in the Grand National. It seemed to me to be the extra yardage than the weight that proved his undoing at Aintree. Always ready fresh, as he showed when winning the race in 2006 off the same mark.
 
SteveM said:
Give the horse a chance! No one yet knows if he is the horse of old. All I'd say about it at the moment is that it was a great achievement to finish where he did in the Gold Cup considering how physically spare he was last season (they had nothing to work on).
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Allelujah for a sensible comment, along with Euronymous' post. A plodder?? Denman is now a plodder??? On what possible evidence could anybody suggest that?! A plodder who is second in the Gold Cup off the back of an interrupted preparation and a season full of health scares?!?

I think Denman will win this and I hope that now they know he is well in himself they ride him forcefully again; I believe he can put up a repeat performance of 2007 on Saturday. I also think Killyglen will run a big race and I did think that According To Pete would but at 130 on the machine I'd guess he's either not going or a leg or two have dropped off!
 
Shadow Leader said:
Allelujah for a sensible comment, along with Euronymous' post. A plodder?? Denman is now a plodder??? On what possible evidence could anybody suggest that?! A plodder who is second in the Gold Cup off the back of an interrupted preparation and a season full of health scares?!? /QUOTE]

I'm getting this framed.:)

I think you're even more confident than Euro and I Dom and probably with just cause. It's difficult enough to win the Hennessy off top weight (even Arkle was vulnerable, admittedly trying to give a virtually impossible burden), but if I had to nominate a horse to do it in moden times it would be Denman above all others.
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Essentially, Denman is giving away lumps of weight to a number of horses that are potentially much better than their current mark. Two seasons ago Denman was also giving weight away but he himself was much better than the handicap mark he was running from. This I feel is the major difference between his '07 Hennessy challenge and the challenge he faces on Saturday. In the interim he has also undergone much publicised heart treatment which may have just taken that extra grunt he had, away from him.

I am speculating on the last point obviously but if something like that had kept him off the track as a 5/6 year old it would be less of a concern than when he was an 8/9 year old. Horses recover much better when they are younger.
 
Eight or nine is not remotely old for a horse. Indeed, some don't reach their maturity until such an age and a horse of such age would be considered a baby at the equivalent level in an alternative equestrian discipline such as eventing, showjumping or dressage.

I appreciate that Denman has one hell of a task ahead of him but like you've already pointed out Steve, the weights are nicely compressed for him and so many run out of the handicap that it should make the job that little bit easier for him; there will be only a handful of horses he will meet on 'real' handicap terms with respect to their current marks. Ergo such animals will also not have life easy as the further out of the handicap they are (and the more overweight their pilots put up!) the less well handicapped they are and they will HAVE to prove to be a fair bit better than their handicap mark if they are to have a chance of beating him.

I also believe that this year we will see a different animal from the one we saw last; he was a sick animal for most of the season, remember. It can take horses months to get over even the smallest of niggles and it is not uncommon to have to write off an entire season.
 
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davidjohnson said:
The money today suggests State of Play is likely to line up at Newbury rather than Newcastle and he must have a very strong chance. The handicapper looks to have been very lenient dropping him back to 145 given his Charlie Hall form last year and how he shaped in the Grand National. It seemed to me to be the extra yardage than the weight that proved his undoing at Aintree. Always ready fresh, as he showed when winning the race in 2006 off the same mark.
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Aaahh f*ckin shush ffs...
 
Narrowing the Field said:
Horses recover much better when they are younger.
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But surely recovering from some heart problem is different than getting back from a muscular/tendon type of issue.

Also, I have to laugh at the money coming in for State of Play. Just look at his Hennessy. Surely the worst renewal in living memory. I'd want him on a much lower mark before i'd consider him - even at 20s.
 
Euronymous said:
But surely recovering from some heart problem is different than getting back from a muscular/tendon type of issue.

Also, I have to laugh at the money coming in for State of Play. Just look at his Hennessy. Surely the worst renewal in living memory. I'd want him on a much lower mark before i'd consider him - even at 20s.
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Yeah, I would say a heart problem is potentially more difficult!
 
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