Hennessy

Desert Orchid said:
Any of the field not yet mentioned as being fancied?

I think it isn't hard to argue a good or better case for just about every one of them.
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I can remove a good many of them...i will do at some point..i'm only concentrating on the best handicapped ones though

Some very good trends for this race...add in the well handicapped..which ones will relish it and i bet you can get it down to 2 good selections

too busy sand dancing at the moment
 
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Warbler said:
Been cut to 16's today. I suppose some wretched seagull has found it? Gives him chance to load another barrel for Saturday, plus what ever he'd identified longer range
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He carried less than 10st when winning the Dec Gold Cup with a claimer on. I think he's possibly the least likely winner in the whole line-up.
 
WPM has seen the value of long distance handicaps as a desirable route for Gold Cup horses a la Hedgehunter and On His Own. The former won his first handicap 3m 4f off 115 and the latter ran his first race for WPM in Irish Paddy Power off 125, both progressing to 160s horses.
Djakadam does not need to win Saturday to be a Gold Cup horse down the road but can gain huge experience off a lenient enough mark for later forays.
What A Warrior is on a bit of a roll and Davy Russell an eyecatching booking ( Neil Mulholland has a good yard stick in The Young Master at home) while Triolo d'Alene must factor also on last years' win.
 
A couple of interesting observations there, edgt.

They back up the idea of Djakadam not being a bet at the price but Henderson won't want it soft for Triolo D'Alene. He's on record as divulging that Geraghty pleaded with him not to run the horse in this last year but keep him for the National but he now thinks we won't have a National without the word 'soft' in the going description for the foreseeable future, which wouldn't suit Triolo D'Alene so the plan is to look for other races for him this season. It will be soft on Saturday but he is handicapped to be competitive.
 
Euronymous said:
He carried less than 10st when winning the Dec Gold Cup with a claimer on. I think he's possibly the least likely winner in the whole line-up.
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He was a 4yo remember, and he's beaten a horse like Walkon by 11L's. How many 4yo's would expect to be able to do that?. He was only a 5yo when he came third in the Charlie Hall and ran 11L's to Bobs Worth in the Lexus and First Lieutenant, 9.5L's. The latter kept the former honest at Leopardstown right to the line. I don't think 11L's to hard driven all age Gd1 winner who would be given a mark of 180 for his win (improbable imo) is a performance for a 5yo.
 
Thought What a Warrior ran the best prep for this year - competitive staying test with a proper gallop, did it the hard way and front two pulled a long way clear - and is overpriced at 33/1. Completely turned inside out since joining the Skeltons. Clearly lots of potential up against him but cant go unbacked at those prices. Not that often the most likely winner of the race (for me) are those odds.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm interrupting my form study to say I've taken 50/1 ap/ew about one. It might not get in and I might be miles out with my mark for it but if I'm right...

I'll name that horse later in the week :ninja:
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Woodford County yesterday and Wilton Milan today have done the form of the race no harm. Had a little e/way myself D.O. Good luck!!
 
Come on Djakadam.

Looking forward to seeing MOT return today. Also Shotgun Paddy having a nice spin out before Chepstow. Could just maybe run in behind MOT.
 
Come on Djakadam.

Looking forward to seeing MOT return today. Also Shotgun Paddy having a nice spin out before Chepstow. Could just maybe run in behind MOT.
 
Looking forward to seeing Cole Harden run; gave me a good win at Wetherby. Backed What a Warrior, Le Reve [sp] and Monbeg Dude for the Hennessy [just a last minute decision as I was walking past a bookies and just had to nip in].
 
I've gone for Rocky Creek. Only 5lbs higher than last year and that was a very decent run. Suspect he might be better this time around. Smad place is the biggest threat for me
 
Identical. I've backed Smad Palce to win and Rocky Creek each way. I've also had a small each way on Le Reve who I marginally prefer to Annacotty of the big outsiders.
 
Isn't Rocky Creek a sort of younger version of Champion Court in that he never finishes his race. Too short for me but would be a decent each way bet at 12s say.
 
Rocky Creek 12.5 & Unioniste 23.0 dutched

had a daft tenner on Midnight Payer as it was well clear on ratings and i'd be slightly unhappy if it wins with nowt on
 
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That was a proper staying race. Phenomenal run by The Druids Nephew to get back into contention after an awful blunder in the first half.

Also a compliment of sorts to Edouard and Holywell.
 
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I think having a run under your bet proved crucial there for the younger horses. The second holds the form down somewhat.
 
Euronymous said:
I think having a run under your bet proved crucial there for the younger horses. The second holds the form down somewhat.
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Not really. He was entitled to be placed on his best form and he and Merry King took the first two places in the £100k race at Ascot last November. Between them and the winner representing the RSA form (not to mention the Edouard/Holywell race), and The Druids Nephew coming from a good run against Sam Winner (the pair miles clear), I think it is at least par for the race but maybe no better than that. Shame the ground stopped lots of others from getting as competitive as they could have been.

Also, Many Clouds was flicking his ears in the last four or five strides so he might go on from here. Merry King, on the other hand, looked broken in the last 50 yards and weakened out of second. I wonder how this might affect him.

Going back to the earlier discussion, quite a few appeared to be using the race as a prep: Monbeg Dude and Unioniste to name two of the more obvious ones.
 
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Willie Robinson, the only rider to win 3 Hennessys said on C4 that he never remembered the going as bad at Newbury on this day in his life.
Going took its toll on all bar the winner. Delighted for owner,trainer and especially rider who all deserved this for their faith in good old steeplechasing.
Cloudings certainly getting buckets of winners this past fortnight.
The Young Master people may well be gutted not to be there; speaking of which does his last run qualify as a third chase run anyone ?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Not really. He was entitled to be placed on his best form and he and Merry King took the first two places in the £100k race at Ascot last November. Between them and the winner representing the RSA form (not to mention the Edouard/Holywell race), and The Druids Nephew coming from a good run against Sam Winner (the pair miles clear), I think it is at least par for the race but maybe no better than that. Shame the ground stopped lots of others from getting as competitive as they could have been.

Also, Many Clouds was flicking his ears in the last four or five strides so he might go on from here. Merry King, on the other hand, looked broken in the last 50 yards and weakened out of second. I wonder how this might affect him.

Going back to the earlier discussion, quite a few appeared to be using the race as a prep: Monbeg Dude and Unioniste to name two of the more obvious ones.
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Good points there Dessie, something like the Welsh National or the Eider would be ideal for Unioniste
 
Id be very surprised if Nicholls goes anywhere near the Eider (when did he last have a runner there?). It's a race for 120 or low 130's animals these days really and was only saved last year by Junior.

My first reaction was Ayr

Personally, there'd be a little bit of me keeping an eye on qualifying him for a Pertemps yet!!! as he won't get in a Kim Muir (well shouldn't do) and doesn't look fast enough for the three mile handicap. I suppose he could even use the Midlands National and miss the Festival? as I can't see that there's an obvious target for him at Cheltenham.

If he wanted a February target then Haydock and the GN trial is the more likely option (same route as Neptune Collonges)
 
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