Hennessy

wilsonl said:
Chepstow's an idiosyncratic track though and I'd be concerned that he ran deplorably when he was a short priced jolly here in the trial a couple of years back.
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Ran a perfectly good race there as a novice hurdler though, Lee.
 
He's prone to the odd blunder though and if they make a mistake over the fences there it can be difficult to get back on track. I've seen so many horses never get into it and that's how he was in the trial years a few years back.

However, I think the only ever winner I've backed in this race was Master Oats and that wasn't even at Chepstow so I'm probably talking bollox, but my money will be lost elsewhere based solely on that one run.
 
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Agree you don't want to get detached, but you could apply that logic to 99% of races, to be fair.

The long straight will suit Carole's Destrier, I reckon - gives him plenty of time to get up to full-pelt.
 
Even without any defections at the top of the handicap Carole's Destrier will carry at least 11-01 and while I'm not a stats man, with one exception (Halcon Genelardais) the only horses who've carried more than 11st to victory in the past 25 years are Gold Cup winners in waiting; Synchronized, Master Oats and Carvill's Hill*. And even HG managed to finish 4th in Denman's Gold Cup.

It's true horses such as Tidal Bay have gone close off even bigger weights and maybe I'm clutching at straws but I just can't have him for this as I don't see him as being remotely in the class of those horses. The proximity of Double Ross and Hadrian's Approach prevent me from considering this year's race a vintage Hennessy.
 
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I have this year's Hennessy as well up to scratch.

Both Double Ross and Hadrian's Approach were very well handicapped on their best form.

These were my immediate post-race thoughts, later edited when I'd had a chance to go over the results in more detail:
They appeared not to take any prisoners in the Hennessy. It didn’t bother me that Native River won despite my having him off the lead in the ratings. I did get a little hopeful of Carole’s Destrier’s late challenge but never truly believed he would get there. I was, I suppose, more concerned that Upswing had got into difficulty early and that Triolo D’Alene was being ridden from much further back than when he won before, while Henri Parry Morgan was also further back than I was happy with. I suppose Carole’s Destrier was too so I was never really getting into the race this year in any sense. Adjusting the standard times for rail realignments, Native River has put up a very fast time and the form looks well up to scratch. The handicapper, though, has only put the winner up 8lbs, a fair bit less than in recent years, so Carole’s Destrier (up 6lbs) remains handicapped to win a decent Saturday handicap and if he can improve another few pounds will have to be on anyone’s short list for the National but he’d probably have to go into hiding between now and then. I suspect Triolo D’Alene was just out for a jog as step one on his National journey.
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I wouldn't argue that it was up to scratch DO but I said I didn't think it was a vintage renewal, where you have a number of progressive types likely to be rated significantly higher in the future.

I'd say the handicapper's assessment of the second is about right and yet maybe the winner has a bit more in him.

Double Ross had never actually won of this mark so I can't have him being very well handicapped on old form. Hadrian's Approach I'll accept though.
 
Desert Orchid said:
But he was off 149 here having previously been on 160 on his non-handicap form.
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Only because of a shortsighted reaction by the handicapper in putting him up 8lbs for finishing 3rd in a questionable Charlie Hall chase when Silviniaco Conti (in behind) clearly didn't run his race and Nicholls later admitted he didn't have him ready. The Betfair chase three weeks later with many of the same contenders was a truer reflection of his ability.

Even Irish Cavalier, who having won the Wetherby race this year, was only raised 1lb.

Prior to that run Double Ross had been rated no higher than 152, a no more than fair mark considering he was beaten 10l into fifth in his only subsequent run in a handicap off it.

That 160 for his Charlie Hall run did for him and it took him two years for his one and only further win - in a veterans chase. That was off 147 and he was subsequently spanked off 150 back in open company on his next outing.

The 160 was wrong, he's never been better than a 150 horse.
 
Now that the Hennessy has had its sponsorship withdrawn, there's a suggestion that it be run at Cheltenham during the International Meeting , a course where the first three versions were run.

Bit too near some of the big 3m+ chases over Christmas ?

Thoughts.........
 
That would be an absolute disgrace. Why don't we just scrap Oct-Mar NH racing altogether, amass all the big Saturday races and squeeze them into a two week festival at clearly the only course that counts.

If I didn't know better I'd have sworn this was an April fools.
 
Cheltenham's great but it already has plenty of big races.

Last I heard there were no issues with it and Ladbrokes-Coral were going to step in to sponsor the race, identical conditions etc. - great move for the sport.

Martin
 
If they're going to prat around with the fixture list etc. I'd double the prize money of the Becher to try and get some Hennessy types into that - the fences are already a lot softer than they were and it would give the classier horses a chance to run around the big fences before trainers are tempted by the race itself later in the season - would put a few off if they ran badly but then they'd be able to properly target the Scottish National etc.
 
wilsonl said:
Only because of a shortsighted reaction by the handicapper in putting him up 8lbs for finishing 3rd in a questionable Charlie Hall chase when Silviniaco Conti (in behind) clearly didn't run his race and Nicholls later admitted he didn't have him ready. The Betfair chase three weeks later with many of the same contenders was a truer reflection of his ability.

Even Irish Cavalier, who having won the Wetherby race this year, was only raised 1lb.

Prior to that run Double Ross had been rated no higher than 152, a no more than fair mark considering he was beaten 10l into fifth in his only subsequent run in a handicap off it.

That 160 for his Charlie Hall run did for him and it took him two years for his one and only further win - in a veterans chase. That was off 147 and he was subsequently spanked off 150 back in open company on his next outing.

The 160 was wrong, he's never been better than a 150 horse.
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I suppose it boils down to one's interpretation of the form.

Prior to his 160 rating he had been a very good third in the JLT in amongst horses who went on to ratings of OR159/RPR166 (Taquin DS), OR161/RPR174 (Uxizandre), OR161/RPR164 (Felix Y) and OR159/RPR165 (Wonderful Charm), the last two of which were seven lengths and more behind him.

Okay so he became inconsistent and lost his form for a bit but was potentially very well handicapped on his best old form. But as I say, it's in the eye of the beholder.
 
Vyta Du Roc was dropped a couple of pounds. He's gonna win a decent handicap on soft ground this season. Hopefully Ascot will get some rain next week.
 
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