Hennessy

IM going top and bottom of the field. Smad Place to bowl out in front, and Upswing (who I'm sure has a big race in him) to pick up late on and be involved. Lay them both now as i don't think I've had the winner of this race in years!
 
Evening all, not posted for a while. I trust all are well.

The two i fancy are Saphir Du Rhea & Blaklion. SRD is 20lbs+ better off with a couple of runners from last years race & i think Blaklion is progressive. Should be a cracker of a race.
 
My maximum stake allowed is apparently £0.00 :confused: but for anybody that can get on Paddy are offering 8/1 enhanced price about Native River winning. Win only by the look of it.
 
granger said:
Was reminded today that this is the last year of Hennessys sponsorship.
Click to expand...

I didn't know that, how long has it been called the Hennessy Gold Cup?

I hope it doesn't end up as (insert poxy bookmaker Gold cup
 
Since the mid-1950s, I think.

Well it's been sponsored since then but they've changed the name now and again. Hennessy Cognac was used in the title for a while.
 
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Eventually come down on the side of Vyta Du Roc & Henri Parry Morgan.

Vicente looks the most overpriced and may also get a few pennies.
 
Native River for me. A bit on Coologue as well hoping he'll progress from an encouraging run at Cheltenham


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3.10 HENNESSY GOLD CUP CHASE (HCAP) (GR3) (CLS 1) Win £113,900 20 run 3m1f214y Good To Soft CH4
[TABLE="width: 707"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]NO.[/TD]
[TD]FORM[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]HORSE[/TD]
[TD]AGE[/TD]
[TD]WGT[/TD]
[TD]TRAINER RTF%[/TD]
[TD]JOCKEY[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]TS[/TD]
[TD]MON
(182+)[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]RPR[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]4P2F-7[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Holywell[SUP]21[/SUP]b[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]11-2[/TD]
[TD]Jonjo O´Neill[SUP]44[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Richie McLernon[/TD]
[TD]156[/TD]
[TD]98[/TD]
[TD]186[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]176[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]5665-3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Saphir Du Rheu[SUP]28[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]10-13[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls[SUP]53[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Nick Scholfield[/TD]
[TD]153[/TD]
[TD]150[/TD]
[TD]185[/TD]
[TD]++ d?
[180oHd][/TD]
[TD]175[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]2155-3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Vyta Du Roc[SUP]21[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]10-3[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson[SUP]36[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Tom O'Brien[/TD]
[TD]143[/TD]
[TD]151[/TD]
[TD]185[/TD]
[TD]+? p?[/TD]
[TD]176[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1416-4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Smad Place[SUP]34[/SUP] [/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]11-12[/TD]
[TD]Alan King[SUP]43[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Wayne Hutchinson[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]152[/TD]
[TD]183[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]175[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]2414-1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Un Temps Pour Tout[SUP]21[/SUP]tb[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]11-4[/TD]
[TD]David Pipe[SUP]57[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Tom Scudamore[/TD]
[TD]158[/TD]
[TD]135[/TD]
[TD]181[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]3/150-[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Triolo D´Alene[SUP]231[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]10-10[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson[SUP]36[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Jeremiah McGrath[/TD]
[TD]150[/TD]
[TD]136[/TD]
[TD]181[/TD]
[TD]++
191?[/TD]
[TD]178[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]2/117-[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Local Show[SUP]256[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]10-6[/TD]
[TD]Ben Pauling[SUP]33[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Tom Cannon[/TD]
[TD]146[/TD]
[TD]147[/TD]
[TD]181[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]U112U-[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Henri Parry Morgan[SUP]217[/SUP]tp[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]10-10[/TD]
[TD]Peter Bowen[SUP]45[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Sean Bowen[/TD]
[TD]150[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]180[/TD]
[TD]p
(+2?)[/TD]
[TD]178[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]7U6-9[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Hadrian´s Approach[SUP]28[/SUP]p[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]10-0[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson[SUP]36[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Paul Moloney[/TD]
[TD]139[/TD]
[TD]155[/TD]
[TD]180[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]175[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]3321-2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Native River[SUP]28[/SUP]p[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]11-1[/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard[SUP]68[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Richard Johnson[/TD]
[TD]155[/TD]
[TD]149[/TD]
[TD]179[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]178[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]31F8-2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Theatre Guide[SUP]29[/SUP]t [/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]10-9[/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard[SUP]68[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Paddy Brennan[/TD]
[TD]149[/TD]
[TD]155[/TD]
[TD]178[/TD]
[TD]? p?[/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]51P0-[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Carole´s Destrier[SUP]217[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]10-8[/TD]
[TD]Neil Mulholland[SUP]53[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Noel Fehily[/TD]
[TD]148[/TD]
[TD]142[/TD]
[TD]177[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]172[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]1PPP-2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Regal Encore[SUP]210[/SUP]t [/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]10-7[/TD]
[TD]Anthony Honeyball[SUP]60[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Barry Geraghty[/TD]
[TD]147[/TD]
[TD]126[/TD]
[TD]177[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]2113-4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Blaklion[SUP]28[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]11-0[/TD]
[TD]Nigel Twiston-Davies[SUP]63[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Ryan Hatch[/TD]
[TD]154[/TD]
[TD]143[/TD]
[TD]176[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[TD]176[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]31451-[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Vicente[SUP]224[/SUP]h[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]10-11[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls[SUP]53[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Harry Skelton[/TD]
[TD]151[/TD]
[TD]150[/TD]
[TD]176[/TD]
[TD]+ t[/TD]
[TD]176[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]99P-15[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Double Ross[SUP]34[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]10-9[/TD]
[TD]Nigel Twiston-Davies[SUP]63[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Jamie Bargary[SUP]3[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]149[/TD]
[TD]126[/TD]
[TD]176[/TD]
[TD](182e)[/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]2P9-P5[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Upswing[SUP]14[/SUP]b[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]10-0[/TD]
[TD]Jonjo O´Neill[SUP]44[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Aidan Coleman[/TD]
[TD]137[/TD]
[TD]113[/TD]
[TD]176[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]1P-544[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Aubusson[SUP]21[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]10-9[/TD]
[TD]Nick Williams[SUP]50[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Lizzie Kelly[SUP]5[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]149[/TD]
[TD]117[/TD]
[TD]175[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]9841P-[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Houblon Des Obeaux[SUP]233[/SUP]p[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]10-13[/TD]
[TD]Venetia Williams[SUP]59[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Charlie Deutsch[SUP]5[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]153[/TD]
[TD]118[/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[TD]o
(184?)[/TD]
[TD]179[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]222P-1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Coologue[SUP]35[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]10-8[/TD]
[TD]Charlie Longsdon[SUP]19[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]A P Heskin[/TD]
[TD]148[/TD]
[TD]125[/TD]
[TD]172[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]172[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

The target figure in brackets at the top of the ratings column represents an average big Saturday handicap. There is nothing ordinary about this race and I would expect the runner-up here to beat that mark. It gives us a guide to some decent markers, though. Houblon Des Obeaux, Double Ross and Smad Place could all run to their previous lifetime best and still find one or two up ahead of them at the line.

The long list for me comprises Saphir Du Rheu, Vyta Du Roc, Triolo D’Alene, Henri Parry Morgan, Carole’s Destrier and Upswing. As you know, I’m on three of those at nicer prices than are now available so I have to be happy with that. I’m letting Holywell go as I’m not convinced this is his time of year. I imagine the big handicap at the festival will be his objective again and he’ll be thrown in there, assuming they’ll get his rating down another 7lbs by then. Even if he ran to form here he could find something improving past him.

However, there’s a fair chance those bets will also find something beating them. They were just good value at the time and I’m leaning more towards Triolo D’Alene than Saphir Du Rheu and Vyta Du Roc.

Triolo D’Alene won this three years ago off 3lbs lower but he was a relatively easy winner on the day and went off at 10/1 in Lord Windermere’s Gold Cup. However, he looked as good as ever first time up last season when he had the odds-on Ptit Zig stone cold when the latter departed the scene two out at Kempton. That form was arguably better than his win here and is obviously more recent. He’s been trained for successive Grand Nationals since winning this but the watering policy at Aintree has scuppered his chances even though it was very soft at Kempton. McGrath would, I’m presuming, have had the option of riding the sexier Vyta Du Roc. His higher figure in the table is taking his form with Ptit Zig on the latter’s peak rating, if that can be relied upon.

Geraghty rides Regal Encore for JP but wouldn’t have been able to do the weight on Upswing and I wouldn’t take any notice of the former wearing the first colours as that’s just racing politics.

I cannot rule out any of the field either on form or potential so the bets are just an attempt at a balance of probabilities and possibilities.

Bets:
Ante-post - Carole's Destrier (50/1), Upswing (66/1 ew), Henri Parry Morgan (12/1), Triolo D'Alene (50)

(I took HPM at 66/1 for the GN weeks ago and again at 50s during the week in anticipation of a very big run here.)
 
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viking said:
Native River for me. A bit on Coologue as well hoping he'll progress from an encouraging run at Cheltenham


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Click to expand...

Coologue had a wind operation prior to that Cheltenham win and holds a good each way chance I feel especially if you can get first five or six.


edit.......Although I see DO has him rank bottom in his ratings :ninja:
 
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I've backed two in this. It's ususaly won by a 150's horse that's likely to improve into the mid to high 160's quite rapidly. Either that or something running off 10 lbs lower that had a sketchy first season over fences but has the back form over hurdles and loks like a chaser despite not sparkling at times last season. Therefore I've backed one from each profile.

Native River I suspect will end up contesting the Gold Cup, and if he's worth his place there I suspect there is still plenty more to come from his mark. He's got plenty of scope, and I see him finishing the season in the high 160's. That being the case he's my main bet. The one I fear is Un Temps Pour Tout who could very easily follow a similar trajectory, but he was beaten by Native River last season in a hot race here that also included Vicente, and both are on worse terms for previous beatings by the selection. Vicente having been easily beaten by Native River at the Festival. I see Native River seeing this out better than UTPT at the end of a fierce gallop, but both in the frame with Vicente back in fifth or sixth.

Vyta du Roc looks the least exposed, and his mark is eye catching to say the least. I can't let him go. He never seemed quite right to me last season, and I guess it's debatable whether he wasn't right in himself or whether he's just not as good as everyone expected. I'm in the former camp. Henderson doesn't throw out Hennessy entries to horses easily, and I suspect he knows he's got an unbelievably well handicapped horse. The other one that fits that bill is Local Show, and I lke the way Pauling has been playing down his chances despite his entry. He made a mistake at a crucial time in the NH Chase, and that form has worked out extraordinarily well. That being so I believe he'd have been fourth without being squeezed and making that mistake, so his mark looks very good. Pauling says he want to go right handed which is utter bollox, and he's the one that's ocerpriced in the market.

The outlier is Saphir du Rheu. He could be exceptionally well handicapped, and if he jumps he would take all the beating. His jumping is a big if though, and they'll be taking no prisoners today, so I had to leave him alone despite all my instincts about how thrown in he could be.

My main bets therefore are Native River and Vyta du Roc, but I've also added Un Temps Pour Tout and Local Show in combination trifectas and exactas.
 
Good luck (not that luck comes into!) to all those making an investment in this race.

Thanks for your ratings, DO, it will be interesting to watch Holywell's 'progress' through the season.
 
I am on Native River at 12's from a while back and am happy with that. I will add Vicente (I have rarely loved any race as much as last years's NH chase as a precursor of future winners and it's been lucrative since for me) EW today and probably add Vyta for a trifecta. Good luck.
 
I've gone Un Temps Poir tout, you could probably stake a very strong claim the top 5 of the market. All the makings of a fantastic race this.

I've also had a few quid on Triolo D'Alene. Was Simonsigs best mate, suprised Henderson hasn't mentioned it yet. Anyway he loves a fairytale, it's hardly a tearjerker but would certainly be nice for him to win it on a humane level.
 
Really hope Un Temps Pour Tout wins! I met the horse when he was a 2yo out in France when my ex worked for Sue Bramall. I used to lead him in from the paddocks when I stayed the week! And a friend of mine painted a lovely portrait of him for David Pipe back in the Spring after he won at Cheltenham
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