Hennessy

archie said:
Aren't the weights framed on the 9th?
Click to expand...

That's my understanding so I wouldn't want anything I fancied to come and do too much, thereby risking being handicapped out of it, unless it needs to get up the weights to give it more of a chance of making the cut.

Just checked yesterday's result. Giving one rated 4lbs better a bit of a doing at level weights will probably see SYAM get a minimum 7lbs rise. So unless they genuinely believe this one is a 170+ animal the Hennessy might be a problem. The race takes more winning nowadays, I think, than ever.
 
Last edited:
Thanks for the info :0) Not that it means much at this stage but SYAM's price has halved. He's just a horse I have always liked so I will just wait and see what his trainer decides....there's probably a One Man (10st) hidden in there somewhere but damned if I can see it
 
DO

I know Native River is a fav of yours. I noticed something of interest when looking at his form before his run on Saturday.

Native River

interval time
< 30 days = 1F1111
30 days or more = U316933322


when he runs in the hennesey..it fits nicely into the <30 day interval :cool:
 
Last edited:
I'd never have imagined that, EC1. Do you have a tool for coming up with figures like that or did you do it manually?

I checked the RP for the horse's history and I think the 30-day stat, while making for compelling reading, might be slightly coincidental?

For example, NR was beaten at Kempton after an interval of 30 days yet had earlier in his career won off a similar absence and he posted his joint-highest ever RPR at Cheltenham off an absence of more than 5 weeks. Three of his defeats were also fist time up for the season but he arguably ran as well as he ever has done over hurdles at Wetherby at the weekend there - and was very heavily backed so to do.

You know me well enough to know how sceptical I can be about trends but the one you've posted about Native River, while I reckon is open to question, is nevertheless well worth bearing in mind going forward. I'm more inclined to believe if he can run so well first time up this season we are more likely to see an even better show next time up especially if it this side of 30 days (but why not 31 days?)
 
I think the 25's for one of my cliff horses -Sausalito Sunrise - is good value. Just short of top class, he hasn't had a lot of racing and definitely improved last season. Given that every one of his wins have come on ground with an 's' in the description, his run in the Betfred in April on good ground was impressive giving a stone to the winner. My feeling is the ground and a half mile beyond his norm did for him.
He has been in the first 3 in 7/10 chases only failing once when standing up. His time of the year and just enough rain would be ideal whilst he can carry the likely weight. Biggest concern is Dickie possibly choosing Village Vic.
 
Looks like PFN might rely on Saphir Du Rheu in this, and Ben Pauling has issued a reasonably upbeat bulletin about my ante-post pick Local Show.

Pricewise apparently makes his Hennesy picks today.



PAUL NICHOLLS has half a dozen Hennessy Gold Cup possibles, but the champion trainer has eyes only for Saphir Du Rheu and Vicente for now.
[h=4]RELATED LINKS[/h]


Saphir Du Rheu is generally 10-1 third favourite for the Newbury showpiece on Saturday fortnight and his trainer believes his reappearance third at Ascot in the Sodexo Gold Cup will prove to have served a useful purpose.
Nicholls, who also has Silviniaco Conti, Southfield Theatre, Irish Saint and Virak entered for the Hennessy, said: "Saphir Du Rheu and Vicente are the intended runners. Saphir Du Rheu schooled yesterday and the experience and run at Ascot definitely won’t be lost on him.
"I want to get a few kilos off him because he still looks big and well. Last year he wasn't finishing, but he finished really strongly at Ascot and I felt it was quite a nice prep for the Hennessy. If he's back to anywhere near his best, he'd have a big chance.
"Vicente won the Scottish National but he does like left-handed tracks. He wouldn’t want the ground desperately soft. He's a hard horse to place but goes well fresh and if he’s improved he's not without a chance. It's a good race for a second-season chaser."
Irish Saint could run over hurdles on Saturday and is described as a "possible", while Southfield Theatre and Virak are rated "unlikely". Silviniaco Conti has been ruled out.
Local showing right signs
Ben Pauling, whose Drumacoo has failed to qualify for the race, is happy with the condition of Local Show, who can be backed at 50-1.
"The race is very much on the cards for Local Show," said the trainer. "He's in exceptionally good form. He was supposed to go to Ascot but it was far too quick. We're looking forward to completing final preparations."
 
Thanks wilsonl.

Outlander?? I have a squiggle beside him myself.

Hard not to see Smad Place on the premises at the finish. O'Faolains Boy my main fancy at this stage.
 
Can't see it myself either Hezz.

Curtis quoted as saying O'Faolains Boy their main hope (Potters Cross heading to Cheltenham this w/e), he's fit and well and they intend to give him a racecourse gallop at Newbury on Tuesday as the ground has prevented them from getting a run into him.
 
wilsonl said:
Smad Place the headline name, along with Outlander.

Although he's strong on the fav too but thinks he'll be just as big on the day so no point in playing AP.
Click to expand...

Don't know about him being bigger on the day. Last year half a dozen horses went off at 8/1 or less. Same the year before. I wouldn't be surprised to see no bigger than 5/1 on the day


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
viking said:
Don't know about him being bigger on the day. Last year half a dozen horses went off at 8/1 or less. Same the year before. I wouldn't be surprised to see no bigger than 5/1 on the day


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

You're talking about SP though and not what was available from 8:30 / 9:00.

The past few years show the favourite has gone off with an SP of around the 5/1 mark and that's horses that were deemed to be genuine Gold Cup contenders later in the season such as Saphir Du Rheu & Djakadam. With the best will in the world I don't hear anybody suggesting Native River is one of those.

Aside from one bookmaker he's currently 6/1 across the board and based on those past fav SPs I'd be amazed if there isn't at least one bookie offering 6/1 on the morning. And of course you're eliminating the risk of him being injured / withdrawn etc. prior to the day.

They were his words not mine anyway btw. But I do agree, which isn't often in the case of Pricewise.
 
Last edited:
Native River will be around 20/1 IR at least. Terrible favourite.

I have a nice AP possie on Vyta du Roc who was a bit under the radar until a week or so ago and have added Saphir at 10s. I liked his run under a big weight
at Ascot and he's fairly handicapped which is more than you can say for the Pipe horse or Smad Place. O' Faolains Boy looks a danger
 
Are decs made for the Hennessy today?

Outlander more likely to be scratched from the race after falling on Saturday, I would have thought.
 
Back
Top