Hennessy

When have I ever asked whether or not you are profitable? Please show me the thread or post that backs this up.

I have stated on several ocassions that I hope you are profitable, and will congratulate you if you tip a winner, but I have never, ever enquired if you make money at the game, because - frankly - it's none of my business, and I don't really care if you do or not - beyond it ensuring your own, ongoing well-being, obviously.

Profit is everything. That much I have said. But that does not preclude ante-post betting, or make it impossible for this to pay, if you don't bet daily.

Two of my biggest ever wins have been in ante-post markets. At the risk of being accused of after-timing, I backed Al Ferof at 120+ the season he won the (now BetVictor) Gold Cup at Cheltenham, and I backed Solwhit at 80+ to win the Stayers Hurdle in 2013. Look hard enough on here, and you will find the thread about Al Ferof. The only reference to Solwhit might be an oblique selection in the Ante-Post Competition pages for that year (I took the 16/1 when he was introduced into the World Hurdle market).

Why do you always seem to insist that your approach is the only one that can possibly work, to the exclusion of everyone elses?

Now, if you could point me in the direction of the post where I ask you about your profit, we can move on after you have failed to find it. :cool:
 
Meanwhile back at the Hennessy Dickie rides Native River


....yes I know he's ridden him in his last two races I'm trying to get the thread back on topic again :whistle:
 
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EC1 said:
bullet point handicapping works..get into it G..its good stuff..i do it everyday with every handicap chases..surprising how it focuses the head..its a simple but effective way of finding wins or lays

i'll post a few up over the coming days with bread and butter fare..which is really the best way..of getting bread and butter on the table..these big races are all well and good..kudos for finding winner..try it every day...that is best test
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yep, certainly.

Sometimes the more you know, the more likely you are to confuse yourself.

Root out the bad and see what's left. Can't be compelling cases for all.
 
Native River for me. I suspect he'll make up into a Gold Cup (placed) type horse and off 154 I reckon, contrary to other opinions on here, his price is good. I see his mark rising to the high 160's by the end of the season.
 
granger said:
yep, certainly.

Sometimes the more you know, the more likely you are to confuse yourself.

Root out the bad and see what's left. Can't be compelling cases for all.
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you are the king of stating the obvious that others miss Granger..you go up in my estimation each week..you an astute guy,,your post will go over many heads as did the last pearl you churned out..top stuff man,,

the ability to concisley put forth common sense..wish i had that quality
 
Desert Orchid said:
I would urge caution about dismissing a rise in the handicap without contextualising it.

Un Tomp Or Two may have gone up a bit but he and Holywell were miles clear of a very hot field and having been close to top class over hurdles he could be close to top class over fences. Or better?
Likewise HPM. He's on a similar mark as when cantering just in behind the pace when unseating in the Whitbread. What if he'd won that (for which he was very heavily backed)? He'd be seven pounds higher than here.
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Fair point re un tempo but he doesn't strike me at all as a horse who could win a race like the Henn off a big weight on soft ground.

As for HPM, the Whitebread was a pretty poor race.
 
i can't name the thread now Grass,,but i do remember you saying.."but does it make profit"..on one one of my shitey threads....i wouldn't lie..but i did put it in boring, sad, old arsehole's memory bank which would have needed electro magnetic pulse action to spark back into life:)..which i got but even that didn't tell me which thread..fookin waste of money that is..and then folk are having themselves froze to wake up in a 100years time..wtf?......are they fookin real?..can you imagine going to die in 1899 and waking up in 1999..you would die of shock immediatedly..34 grand down the fookin swanee ffs

i despair with the absolte shite i read in the news..wish i had thought of it though..oh yeah..giz 37k and i'll stick you in my freezer..ooh thanks..thats seems like a right good deal..the girl must be too daft to live anyway from what i have read..wtf are we going?..i'm just glad those that gave their lives in 39-45 cannot see the fookin shite light weight society we now have..ffs..they would turn in their graves..what a pitiful lot we are..ooooh i'm offended at that..ooh that upsets me,,ffs toughen up
 
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don't matter..wins with anybody on back..within reason obviously

probably the best bet of the season..if there is such a thing
 
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fonz said:
Is un temp pour tout French for one lump or two? Just wondering....
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Unless there's some clever play on words going on, it should translate as "[lit] a time for everything" but "temps"should always have the 's' in French unless it literally means 'temp'. It might be just one of those mistranslated things.

Another common one I've seen is "coup de gras" for "coup de grace" (pronounced "coo de grass" - literally "one of Grasshopper's less-inspired bets"), while one that bugs me is the constant mispronunciation of the Spanish word "chorizo" on TV food ads & programmes. It's pronounced "chaw-ree-thaw", or in certain parts of the country they will say "chaw-ree-saw" but never "cho-reet-zo".

My ref to Un Tomp Or Two is a private joke among family/friends about Tanya's pronunciation of the poor beast.

Edit: hope that's taken in the jestful manner in which it was intended.

Coup de grace of course means literally 'blow of mercy', ie putting a bull out of its misery after it's been tortured worse than spending an hour listening to Tanya.

Edit again: I actually like Tanya. She's just not found her metier on the racing programmes.
 
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It's a pity the million pound series can't incorporate a big handicap like the Hennessy or else they can't put together something to incentivise graded horses to dip their toes.
 
Henri Parry Morgan improved enormously from his chase debut this time last year to the point where he was favourite for what used to be the Whitbread. Given his performance at Aintree his position in the betting was understandable but clearly the stable must have been pretty happy with his chances. Native River is favourite at half the price of HPM. NR has had the benefit of a run this season but otherwise there is nowt to justify the price differential. Have taken 20's and 16's ew.This is not a race for playing the handicap game with a horse with substantial potential and I therefore assume the trainer believes the horse has a good chance.
 
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I think to get into some kind of perspective the kind of winning this race takes, it might help to take a look at the last four winners.

Listed immediately after their names below is the rating they won off, followed by the rating they went up to for winning the race. Ratings in brackets are subsequent higher ratings where applicable.

Smad Place 155 -> 168 (-> 169)
Many Clouds 151-> 161 (-> 165)
Triolo D’Alene 147-> 158
Bobs Worth 160-> 171 (-> 180)



The winner of a normal Saturday handicap will go up 7-8lbs on average, unless they are wide margin winners so winners of this race tend to be not only very well handicapped but are likely to go on better things.

How many of this weekend's race fall into that category?

I have to admit I still tend to look first and foremost for what I call the 'Ever Blessed' type, the type that was well fancied for one of the big festival novice races but for whom things didn't happen on the day, so that they end up in this race off a much lower mark than their ability merits.

I suspect Vyta Du Roc might be this year's candidate but I haven't decided whether to back him yet.
 
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Is that a big enough sample to tell you much conclusively, DO? Go a year further back, and Carruthers enters your calcs, and he only won three more times in 20-odd attempts, and one of those was a PTP. Go back another year, and you bring in Diamond Harry, and he failed to win again in his 11 subsequent races. I agree that you need to be a well-handicapped animal to win the Hennessy - I'm just not entirely sure that you necessarily need a horse that will go on to better things.

Your post did prompt me to look at past winners, and I made a couple of observations.

Firstly, when the Hennessy is a strong race with Gold Cup class horses running in it, those carrying big-weights tend to do rather well - the cream rises to the top, if you like. In weaker renewals, with little or no horses with Gold Cup-class pretensions, those with lower-weights tend to do better - which is possibly more in line with what I would expect from a traditional competitive, staying handicap chase.

The other thing I thought was noteworthy (and which I hadn't realised prior to looking) was that horse's previously beaten in the race, have a fair winning record. In recent years, Smad Place, Carruthers and Madison du Berlais were all beaten on their first attempt in the Hennessy, before going on to win at their second attempt. This might just be statistical anomaly, but it perhaps suggests that slower-maturing/battle-hardened types do well in the race, rather than obviously-progressive second-season chasers? I dunno if this is significant or not - I'm just thinking aloud, really.......but I was a little surprised.

For what it's worth, this year's qualifiers (on this admittedly potentially-spurious stat) are: Houblon Des Obeaux, Saphir Du Rheu, Theatre Guide & Hadrian's Approach.

None of this research gets me anywhere closer to sussing who the winner might be, though I do feel this renewal is probably towards the weaker end of the spectrum myself.
 
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Hmmn. I'm hoping this is a put-away job from Ben Pauling, as he seems a lot more positive about Drumacoo.

"Local Show is likely to run as well. He is probably best going right-handed but he has been schooling very well.
"I always think the Hennessy is won by a very progressive horse and, considering he improved the best part of two stone last season, I just wonder how much more improvement is there, but obviously we are hoping he runs a good race."
 
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Has any one heard does Noel Meade intend to run Wounded Warrior? I had a little nibble antepost at 50/1 last week. He has a nice weight, goes well fresh and will certainly relish trip and conditions. Last years form behind Don Cossack, Don Poli & Valseur Lido looks well now too, obviously excusing DP poor Down Royal run.


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Grasshopper said:
Is that a big enough sample to tell you much conclusively, DO? Go a year further back, and Carruthers enters your calcs, and he only won three more times in 20-odd attempts, and one of those was a PTP. Go back another year, and you bring in Diamond Harry, and he failed to win again in his 11 subsequent races. I agree that you need to be a well-handicapped animal to win the Hennessy - I'm just not entirely sure that you necessarily need a horse that will go on to better things.

Your post did prompt me to look at past winners, and I made a couple of observations.

Firstly, when the Hennessy is a strong race with Gold Cup class horses running in it, those carrying big-weights tend to do rather well - the cream rises to the top, if you like. In weaker renewals, with little or no horses with Gold Cup-class pretensions, those with lower-weights tend to do better - which is possibly more in line with what I would expect from a traditional competitive, staying handicap chase.

The other thing I thought was noteworthy (and which I hadn't realised prior to looking) was that horse's previously beaten in the race, have a fair winning record. In recent years, Smad Place, Carruthers and Madison du Berlais were all beaten on their first attempt in the Hennessy, before going on to win at their second attempt. This might just be statistical anomaly, but it perhaps suggests that slower-maturing/battle-hardened types do well in the race, rather than obviously-progressive second-season chasers? I dunno if this is significant or not - I'm just thinking aloud, really.......but I was a little surprised.

For what it's worth, this year's qualifiers (on this admittedly potentially-spurious stat) are: Houblon Des Obeaux, Saphir Du Rheu, Theatre Guide & Hadrian's Approach.

None of this research gets me anywhere closer to sussing who the winner might be, though I do feel this renewal is probably towards the weaker end of the spectrum myself.
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I'm happy enough to have got you thinking, though :)

I did look through the past ten years and was aware that Carruthers and Diamond Harry didn't fit the pattern I was presenting.

Carruthers was simply well handicapped on his best form. He won off 146 having hit an RPR of 160 in the Bowl 18 months earlier and had previously won the Mandarin by 23 lengths off 149. I had him clear top-rated for the race but didn't back him as I favoured the sexier type. I learned a lot that day!

Diamond Harry was harder to fathom (I was on Burton Port - spit). But Denman was arguably a false favourite off 182 and a lot of horses with chances blundered their chances away. I could never get my head round Harry's price that day. But he was off 156 having been a 165 hurdler and I just thought people were backing him to prove at least as good over fences. He was off for a whole year after his win and returned at a similar level before his form nosedived. Prior to those two the pattern was as of late, with the race going to well handicapped classy types. That was partly why I only used the last four. Another part was because I believe the recent pattern is the one that will solidify. Just as the festival and Grand National are bigger now than ever, so is the Hennessy.

It is and always will be for me the second most important race of the season after the National.

The 'Carruthers-type' this year is probably Triolo D'Alene (listen careful for Tanya's attempts at pronouncing it :lol:) who gets to race off 150 having won cosily off 147 and was seriously fancied for the National off 157, while Saphir Du Rheu might just be a long-term plot as he gets to race off 153 having been a 165 hurdler and 9/2f for this off 163 last season.
 
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Kauto Abu said:
Has any one heard does Noel Meade intend to run Wounded Warrior? I had a little nibble antepost at 50/1 last week. He has a nice weight, goes well fresh and will certainly relish trip and conditions. Last years form behind Don Cossack, Don Poli & Valseur Lido looks well now too, obviously excusing DP poor Down Royal run.


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I'm of a similar opinion Kauto. I havent backed him as yet, but at 40/1 he stands out a mile to me as being over-priced. Haven't heard/read anything from connections as regards intentions to run or otherwise.
 
He's entered in Thurles this Thursday too in a 2m6f chase. We'll probably know his intentions this time tomorrow.


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