How Are You At Pricing A Race Up?

EC1

EC1

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I've just read a post on another board and one guy suggests that the Morning Line prices have an affect on how punters view a race, suggesting it might be interesting to have a day without a betting forecast for each race.

Just as a bit of fun...have a look the 7.45 at Newmarket on Friday ...which has 8 runners, all jocked up and the going is likely to be Good/Firm.

What would be your estimate of the odds for that race?
 
sorry..scrap that, there is an unknown quantity in it

use the 8.15 at Newmarket instaed

sorry

obviously..if you are really good at this..do both races norty
 
To answer the question posed in the title : "###### hot. I was paid to do so for a top firm for long enough!!!"

As for the bollocks comment about "Morning Line prices have an affect [sic] on how punters view a race" ~ the ML tends to show the best prices available on each yoke at that time, or the forecast SP price if an actual price isn't available, either the forecast SP in the RP or a tissue price. Ergo regardless of whether those prices were broadcast on Ch4 or not, they will go some way to influence the opinions of those punters who cannot or will not use their own opinions to work out what price a horse should be anyway. Although the opinions of such punters don't count for a lot really as their fivers each way aren't going to influence the market a whole lot anyway.
 
You should find this easy then Shadow Leader if you are shite hot at it :nuts:

My stab at the sprint would be this:

5/2 OBE GOLD
4/1 TAMAGIN
4/1 ORPEN WIDE
7/1 BRUNELLESCHI
8/1 PRINCE NAMID
8/1 ABWAAB
12/1 FIGARO FLYER
 
I dont think Obe would be that short personally. He is a known rogue and i dont think his run last Friday will be taken at face value. I owuldnt mind a bit of 8s on Prince Namid.
 
Originally posted by Shadow Leader@Aug 9 2007, 12:00 AM
To answer the question posed in the title : "###### hot. I was paid to do so for a top firm for long enough!!!"
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Do you remember when we both priced up that handicap hurdle at Worcester last summer Shadz? What price were you on the eventual winner Chickapeakray? :P :D

The fact is that pricing a race with the help of Betfair is a different task altogether from pricing purely based on the formbook (that's not a dig at you, dear, just a comment about how the industry has changed). It's also a tad unfair to call the comment about punters being influenced by ML prices "bollocks". Fisrtly, EC1 uses the term Morning Line to mean the Tissue, rather than the dreary C4 programme. Very few punters are not influenced in some way by tissue prices, even those who bet in thousands.
 
Originally posted by chrisbeekracing@Aug 9 2007, 07:12 AM
I dont think Obe would be that short personally. He is a known rogue and i dont think his run last Friday will be taken at face value. I owuldnt mind a bit of 8s on Prince Namid.
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I take your point about Obe Gold, but his Goodwood form last time out is much the best on offer here and he does have a touch of class. Conditions are in his favour, the handicapper has given him a real chance and he has done it in small fields as well as big ones.

If he hadn't fluffed a similar opportunity at Yarmouth 2 runs ago, I would be a fair bit shorter.

For the record, without looking at anyone else's prices, I was

2 Obe Gold
4 Orpen Wide
4 Prince Namid
11/2 Tamagin
8 Figaro Flyer
12 Abwaab
14 Brunelleschi

I would be keen to take on Tamagin on this ground. In addition, he nicked his last win from the front, so I doubt the form is that solid. I wouldn't be surprised if Figaro Flyer was available at bigger, but I suspect they've been on the fiddle - so I am on the cautious side of him.

I agree with Rory though - a 2nd opinion is always valuable.

Who's next?
 
It gets boring once people have two lines to look at already - you will just get diluted efforts on the whole.

NOt many people are capable of doing this very well these days though imo...

(BTW - particularly trappy race you have chosen there EC1!)
 
Originally posted by rorydelargy@Aug 9 2007, 10:02 AM

Do you remember when we both priced up that handicap hurdle at Worcester last summer Shadz? What price were you on the eventual winner Chickapeakray? :P :D
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50s I think, no?
 
yes it's a trappy one, if possible don't look at the odds already put up. i did indeed mean the tissue when referring to Morning Line.

I'm not really obsessing over this one race..just thought it might be an interesting test for us to pick a race out that there are no forecast prices for and have a go at pricing up.
 
For the record, without looking at anyone else's prices, I was

that is a telling comment to me, it backs up the point about actually seeing a tissue and letting it influence you that I mentioned at the top of the shop, also TDK mentions something similar. I don't think it's bollocksy at all to assume that once a tissue is available, especially the RP one..that it does actually influence people.

It is also telling to me that the one person that said it was a piece of pee doing this hasn't actually produced a tissue..shame on you Shadow :P

I doubt very much if this is as easy as SL makes out, if you search tissue prices and Morning Line on Google it brings up many threads on racing boards..the concensus of opinion is that no one actually knows how the pro tissue is produced.

Shadow Leader, can you give us some pointers in to how a tissue is made?..say by the RP.

Chris

re Prince Namid, i think needs slower ground, which is one factor as to why I went that big on it.
 
I didn't comment on anything EC1 said as being bollocks - he mentioned the comment he saw written by someone else which I was commenting on as being bollocks!

I'm retired for now, EC1 - and I certainly ain't gonna go to the effort of pricing up some bollocks flat race that I couldn't care two hoots for after I've just got in having been out since 0645 this morning!! :P :P Which neatly answers your comment about me not having priced the race - I've a life, darling, and have been out all day! :P Now I'm having a quick look in before going to bed to be up at 0630 tomorrow for another day on the go until nearly midnight!

So at the moment whilst I am popping in quickly from time to time, I'm switched off & not using brainpower to go into pricing anything/offering protracted opinions on stuff either....

(bar to tell Rory to sod off - and that none of my ante post jumps stuff was done using any tissues, BF or guide prices at all, so there!!!!!!)
 
Originally posted by Warbler@Aug 9 2007, 11:40 PM
Rory - surely the fucking hot layer didn't get caught out with her trousers down :eek:
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That's strange? I thought we had a default to asterix bad language (i was trying to replicate/ paraphrase shadz initial modest description of herself)
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Aug 10 2007, 06:42 PM
For some reason that form of the verb isn't covered :P
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Which leaves me wondering just what Shadz described herself as :suspect: Clearly I wrong guessed her? Lets try ######

aha cracked it, it would appear :D
 
a few posts relevant to the thread might have been pleasant, as it is it looks like you are shitting all over it with this stuff ..if you don't mind me mentioning it
 
Originally posted by EC1@Aug 10 2007, 09:38 PM
a few posts relevant to the thread might have been pleasant, as it is it looks like you are shitting all over it..........
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It's a thread about a Flat race, EC1.......shitting all over it is to be expected, given the subject matter. :P

Good to see you again, mate. :)
 
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