How Are You At Pricing A Race Up?

EC1[/i]@Aug 10 2007 said:
His new trainer evidently has him in good form and has probably improved him. Just as at Redcar, he probably had the run of the race - but I accept that I probably underestimated the extent to which he had benefitted from his previous run (his first of the season). However, I wasn't alone as he was weak in the betting (touched 8/1 on the machine).

Obe Gold 15/8
held up, raced centre, headway over 1f out, edged right, ridden and every chance inside final furlong, kept on

This looked like a good opportunity for Obe Gold, but once again he failed to deliver the goods. We know he has more than enough ability to defy a mark in the low 80s, but he is becoming expensive to follow. He's frustrating and is probably one to avoid when he is a short price.

Abwaab 14/1
raced centre, chased winner, ridden and hung right over 1f out, stayed on same pace final furlong

Ran ok but is bascally exposed and the handicapper has him where he wants him.

Prince Namid 8/1
raced centre, chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, hung right and no extra inside final furlong

I ended up backing this one. The reason I had him a fair bit shorter than the market was that, in looking through some of his decent form in Class 2/3 events, I had it in my head that he just had more class than these (Obe Gold excepted). However, whilst he wasn't disgraced, he clearly isn't in the same form he was a few weeks ago (maybe 8 runs in as many weeks is taking its toll?). EC1 mentioned the fast ground but he has gone on it in the past.

Orpen Wide 10/3
raced centre, held up, effort and edged right over 1f, no impression final furlong

Disappointing, given that he had run well here last time. Maybe 6f doesn't suit him anymore?

Brunelleschi 5/1
raced centre, held up, ridden and hung right over 1f out, soon weakened

The one I really didn't fancy. I know he had been progressive and in good form in May, but the race he won at Yarmouth was pretty dire. I thought he would struggle in this higher grade off his new mark and his previous 2 runs had been pretty moderate (albeit that 1 of them was on soft ground). Anyway, given this performance, it would be easy enough for me to pat myself of the back for getting this right - but it might not be that simple. The weight of money behind him suggested that something a lot better was expected and I have to respect that. Maybe he had been working well for his new trainer but, for whatever reason, just didn't give his running last night?

Perhaps time will tell that I was right all along, but it is difficult to ignore that volume of money and I suppose it wouldn't be a massive surprise if he does better in due course (although I won't be backing him to do so).

Figaro Flyer 16/1
switched to race alone stands' side, prominent over 3f

I was interested to note that this one was pretty solid in the market in the morning but, after they opened-up on course, he drifted like a barge on Betfair (was available at 28/1+ at the off). Evidently yesterday was not "the day". There's a fair chance that he has just gone at the game or that this race was just not for him. I just wish I knew which race they've got in mind!


How's that?
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Great stuff Relkeel. You were always Mambazo being cheating with on the all weather. Won when heavily gambled on from a favouable draw and has run up a sequence this year. What makes you certain a horse is being plotted out?
 
I hope you've got proof of what you allege Relkeel, that statement regarding Figaro Flyer is libelous.

Regarding Tamagin, I'm not sure it's so much a case of him improving as finally running over his correct distance. I've seen few horses pull as hard as he has over 7f/1m around Lingfield that he always looked worth a try at sprinting.
 
Originally posted by Gearoid@Aug 12 2007, 01:08 AM
What makes you certain a horse is being plotted out?
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It can be a number of things, but I'll be the first to admit that I have regularly found myself barking up the wrong tree.

In this case, it was reading form comments like this; "held up in last, shuffled along final 2f, never near leaders" (from 10th May) and the fact that they have been employing hold-up tactics of late (Figaro Flyer's best form has come when he has raced prominently).

I take DavidJohnson's point about my comments being potentially libelous. Can something still be libelous when it is expressed as a theory? Where's Ardross when you need him? Whatever, I probably worded it a but too strongly. Perhaps a mod should edit it? I can't, for some reason.

Regarding Tamagin, you may well be right.
 
I like (is love too strong a word? :D ) these sprints as I find it much easier to identify value where relatively exposed horses meet than I do in races where several potentially progressive horses run against each other. In those races, although the horses maybe more "interesting" from a purists point of view, you are far more vulnerable to the market knowing a lot more than you do about several of the horses' respective abilities and hence chance.

So on that basis I think this thread should run and run as I reckon moue value would be unearthed than on some poxy thread about the Champion HUrdle. :P

I would add these comments...

Tamagin - still looks on the upgrade to me and has an excellent career record for a handicapper. Always showed tremendous pace on the AW over 7f and 8f and clearly is converting that ability into his sprinting now - and this at a time when the yard isn't exactly flying. Horses with this level of basic speed always have a chance of defying the hanicapper imo and I love these front running AW beasts who go on and improve on turf - Celtic Mill II anyone? :laughing:

Prince Namid: This horse doesn't really want a stiff 6f imo. His best runs have come over a stiff 5f (preferably with a bit of cut to disadvantage those who don't go on it) or an easy 6f - the Epsom effort also confiming he goes well enough on faster ground.

Figaro Flyer: Possible he has gone at the game, but I tend to side with Relkeel. He was running some decent numbers on the AW not so long ago in the spring and wasnt disgraced at all at Ascot two runs back. He is worth keeping an eye on.

Orpen Wide - talented and versatile beast. He isn't one to rule out in many races in which he runs - indeed he has popped up a few times at big prices in his career and is a horse to specualte with at big prices. That said, he probably would want more of a test than a stiff 6f
 
Originally posted by tdk@Aug 12 2007, 07:00 PM
I like (is love too strong a word? :D ) these sprints as I find it much easier to identify value where relatively exposed horses meet than I do in races where several potentially progressive horses run against each other. In those races, although the horses maybe more "interesting" from a purists point of view, you are far more vulnerable to the market knowing a lot more than you do about several of the horses' respective abilities and hence chance.

So on that basis I think this thread should run and run as I reckon moue value would be unearthed than on some poxy thread about the Champion HUrdle. :P

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Look forward to reading your thoughts on some of them tdk
 
Obe Gold reappears tonight at windsor.

It says in the paper that he "excels himself in big fields for strongly run races". This is probably because he isn't entirely in love with the game and in these scenarios the finish has been run out out of a lot of his rivals - he certainly didn't seem too bothered about trying to win at Newmarket last time.

Tricky little race tonight. Beaver Patrol has an obvious chance and could easily win, but isn't exactly an exciting price.

There are quite a few "talented rogues" in here - Border Music, One More Round, Obe Gold and The Kiddykid. All of them could win if running to their best ~ but probably won't given recent evidence. Golden Dixie is better with an uphill finish, while the Millman pair, Adantino and Phantom Whisper should relish conditions, but may just find this race a bit on the hot side.
 
Originally posted by tdk@Aug 12 2007, 07:00 PM
I like these sprints as I find it much easier to identify value where relatively exposed horses meet than I do in races where several potentially progressive horses run against each other. In those races, although the horses maybe more "interesting" from a purists point of view, you are far more vulnerable to the market knowing a lot more than you do about several of the horses' respective abilities and hence chance.
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I don't usually start betting on the flat until around June because, prior to that, there's too little recent form to go on. Even some of the horses that have had a run may have been having their seasonal debut and needed the outing. It's a case of THEY know that much more than you do. While that tends to support tdk's logic above, I have to say that the races I'm most successful in are the 2yo races with nurseries being my particular favourites. Maybe that's purely down to the fact that I used to do 2yo's and nothing else and still give them added attention, but I can't help but get the impression that (handicapping runs excepted) there seems to be less non-triers in 2yo races. A lot of the name-your-own-stake-and-price non-triers seem to be beaten before they reach the course these days (perhaps jockeys are less keen on helping out). I don't know what methods they use to achieve this (there's definitely a welfare issue here though) but, whatever they are, they're maybe less inclined to adopt them where 2yo's are concerned.

With the ever expanding fixture list I sometimes think I should go back to confining my betting to these races. Although my tissue is computerised, race reading takes up a hell of a lot of my time. I mostly use timeform to tell me whether a horse has been eased or if there has been an excuse for a run etc., but even just reading through their comments (when they bother to cover the meeting) is extremely time consuming and I've all but given up on it. Betfair are in the process of rewriting computer timeform and I've made a few suggestions regarding having race reading in a form that can be recognised by computer programs. Hopefully they'll take up my suggestions but, if not, I think I'll go back to specialising. I miss the old days when I felt I had intimate knowledge of every runner and could practically recall every horses previous runs. For anybody starting out at the game, specialising in 2yo's is definitely the way to learn the trade.
 
Regarding integrity, one always has to play the "who is likely to be trying today" game with these sprinters as much as with any other group - the difference is that I feel much more confident that I know what they are capable of if they are trying...

Sticking to the better class races improves the % of triers imo....
 
Originally posted by tdk@Aug 13 2007, 11:43 AM
Regarding integrity, one always has to play the "who is likely to be trying today" game with these sprinters as much as with any other group - the difference is that I feel much more confident that I know what they are capable of if they are trying...

Sticking to the better class races improves the % of triers imo....
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As wonderfully demonstrated a couple of times today at Stratford. Even Timeform thought Barry Fenton had given Knocker Jock a "puzzling ride" lto and he duly bolted up in the opener under Marcus Foley; Brendan Powell's Contra Mundum has just landed a gamble in the seller, thanks in part to an equally puzzling ride on his main danger Blushing Prince, absolutely anchored in rear by John Flavin for trainer Richard Guest. It goes without saying that that horse was strong all day on the exchanges until two minutes from the off when his price mysteriously doubled. Surely the authorities aren't blind to this?
 
I'm sure they aren't Rory - they just can't do anything about it. A consistent approach to "doing something about it" would effectively lead to the whole sport being exposed as a sport that is riddled with, nay fundamentally based on, cheating and deception. Therefore the authorities just take a damage limitation approach to policing the sport and only ever deal with the one or two absolutely blindingly obvious cases that crop up from time to time.
 
Not that anybody is saying that anyone is a cheat. Just that maybe someone should look closely at instances similar to these. Right?
 
Imo there won't be a day for the poor old Flyer until they let him down and give him a holiday. I've just checked his racing record. He's been constantly ont he go and on the track for well over a year now - no wonder he doesn't want to know :angy: If they give him a rest, then bring him back over a course and distance he's won at, say 2nd or 3rd time after the break, then I'd go in
 
Originally posted by tdk@Aug 12 2007, 05:00 PM
I would add these comments...

Tamagin - still looks on the upgrade to me and has an excellent career record for a handicapper. Always showed tremendous pace on the AW over 7f and 8f and clearly is converting that ability into his sprinting now - and this at a time when the yard isn't exactly flying. Horses with this level of basic speed always have a chance of defying the hanicapper imo and I love these front running AW beasts who go on and improve on turf - Celtic Mill II anyone? :laughing:

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Did anyone watch Tamagin at Newmarket over 6f today?

Celtic Mill II isn't far off - get him back to 5f Mr Ryan and you have a listed horse on your hands...
 
Just watched that race now tdk and CM looks very speedy and probably wouldnt be far off Group class at that sort of trip.
 
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