How Are You At Pricing A Race Up?

Originally posted by davidjohnson@Oct 3 2007, 12:12 PM
Hopefully they'll turn Matsunosuke out under a penalty. Can't see him getting a race run to suit like that again for a while and he's sure to be pretty short given how well handicapped he'll 'look'.
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Declared 3.25 Lingfield on Friday
 
Well Matsunosuke heads the market on Betfair (early days I know) at around 5/2 - 11/4 to back & lay, layers taking no chance with Texas Gold now under 7/2. I wonder if getting McEvoy to ride the top weight here forced their hand for this race or if it was always a target?

Osiris Way to make the pace for me from stall 2, maybe Fromsong too if he breaks and gets handy, Matsunosuke dropping in from stall 2, and Texas Gold taking up a mid div position from 5. The usual routine of the horses fanning wide into the straight with Matsunosuke, Texas, Holbeck Ghyll and Tony The Tap swamping the leaders with Texas Gold coming back to form and the other 3 filling the minors. TG's course and distance record is impressive at 2112121221.

This wont be lost on the punters though and they're already asking for 7/2 on Betfair - just noticed it's the Racing Post NAP and he alludes to TG's excellent CD record too.

Going back to the topic of the thread, at 11/4 or shorter I'd be against Matsunosuke, I can see him going off 2nd fav at around 7/2 with TG a well backed favourite, maybe even with an SP as low as 2/1. If I can't get the 7/2 - 3/1 about TG tomorrow I'll probably take a look at the stables other runner Tony The Tap as a solid e/w proposition at around the 12/1 mark with a favourable weight turnaround with Matsunosuke.
 
Ive always thought Tony The Tap needs a stiffer 5f than this Steve T.

Texas Gold looks the one to beat to me - he has always been a much better horse over this CD than he is on turf, but the handicapper seems to have decided otherwise. I'm not sure which way the market will go though and Im not rushing in at 7-2 as he could drift later ~ as punters do seem to like backing Matsunosuke.
 
Another cosy win for Matsunosuke, TG ran well, will need to win again soon to avoid creeping back up the handicap without getting his head in front.
 
Matsunosuke really is on the up and was given a nice ride I thought. TG was disappointing really given how good he has been over this CD in the past. I thought today's run signalled that he is sadly no longer the force of old.

Tony The Tap again ran like a horse that needs a test at 5f - he was staying on well in the closing stages.
 
Another chance for Texas Gold at 3.30 on Wednesday, back over 5f at Lingfield after a strange run over 6f last time, has half a length to make up on Osiris Way on their last meeting, but a 3lb pull. CD winner New York Oscar is likely to be the strong market leader and although doesn't have a great draw will be ridden by the winner-hungry Seb Sanders, who will be off to Kempton afterwards to ride among others Ishibee, who he has a very good record on, in the 8.20 race.
 
Easily turned things around with Osiris Way but found the New York Oscar too good, how NYO went off the price he did I have no idea! :)
 
TAMAGIN, not as good on the all weather, but goes in again under Ryan Moore who, like Ted Durcan last week, saved a bit in the middle of the race.
 
Damn!! Missed him, after my big win on him the last day, I'd have lumped on :ph34r:
I decided to have a racing free day today, first one in months :suspect:
 
I had 250 on the second at 17.0. Thought the money was in my pocket despite Travis Blockhead going up the inside. Incredibly, the second didn't go any shorter than 4.0 in running despite the fact that the winner (who looked the only one that could take it) touching 12.0.
 
When dealing with exposed horses running in handicaps, the odds the horses started at last time adjusted for how they fared gives you a good starting point. It's an extension of the Iterative Principle - the trade off between expected outcome and actual outcome - which is also seen in handicapping.

As an example, a horse starting at 10/1 and finishing fifth in a 10-runner handicap might start around the same price in a similar race next time. A horse starting at 33/1 and finishing fifth in a 10-runner handicap might start around 16/1 in a similar race next time. A horse starting at 4/1 and finishing fifth in a 10-runner handicap might start at 13/2 in a similar race next time. Etc.

That is, of course, before considering such things as fitness, changes in trip, drops/rises in weights, luck in running, and, perhaps most importantly of all, whether THEY wanted it then or want it now.

But it's a starting point. The market does not always get things right, but a horse's odds last time is a distillation of an awful lot of information that just needs to be put into a different context today. In some instances that is not all that difficult.
 
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